Hi Gregg: I love the newsletters; it's always compelling to read what an expert has to say about a subject that has fascinated me since I was a kid. You've made reference several times to the bizarre weather we've seen in 2023. Given that, have you considered using other jumping-off points for your tornado safaris?
-- Jack Eppert (Little Rock, AR)
If I'm reading between the lines correctly, Jack, you're referring to the widespread theory that Tornado Alley has shifted hundreds of miles to the east. In which case your timing is Halloween scary. In the last few weeks, I've had a few casual discussions with members of my F5! team about that very subject: Is Oklahoma City still the best place from which to launch our tours?
There is plenty of evidence that there has been an eastward shift in large tornado outbreaks, when numerous twisters touch down on the same region on the same day.
This year has epitomized the trend: A violent twister with wind speeds of 170 miles per hour emerged from a group in Rolling Fork, Miss. on March 24, killing at least 26 people. A week later storms in the southeast killed more than 30 people, and another group on April 4 damaged more than 80 structures in Bollinger County, Missouri. As we reported in a previous newsletter, 2023 has seen the widest tornado ever recorded in Delaware, the first January tornado on record in Iowa, and a historic upsurge in tornado activity in New Jersey.
According to Scientific America, the swarms are clustering in a tighter geographical area than the traditional Tornado Alley, which extends north-south roughly from the Nebraska-South Dakota border to Dallas and approximately occupies the whole of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas from east to west. And the outbreaks may be getting "fiercer and more frequent."
“It looks as if we may be having fewer days in the U.S. with just one tornado and more days when there are multiple tornadoes,” says Naresh Devineni, an associate professor at City University of New York, who co-led a 2021 geographical analysis of large tornado outbreaks.
For those tempted to think that the eastward migration of Tornado Alley is a product of climate change . . . they may be right. If so, it's been a nearly four-decade process. See the AccuWeather map below comparing the traditional and contemporary versions of Tornado Alley.
As to your question, Jack: Yes, the day may soon come when it might be advantageous to launch our tornado safaris from, say, your town of Little Rock, Ark. But that would likely accompany a shift in our chase windows to earlier in the year. As long as we're launching in May, our chase window since 1998, Oklahoma City remains our home away from home -- for now.
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