Weekly Update

March 28, 2025

Facing the Future with Fewer Learners

Enrollment decline lurks behind many conversations in education, fueling concern across the spectrum from early childhood through higher education. After all, many of our systems, institutions, and laws are predicated on the continued growth in students.

Enrollment declines in both K–12 and higher education are influenced by several factors. In K–12, declining birth rates and increased educational alternatives, such as homeschooling and private schooling, have contributed to reduced public school enrollment. In higher education, factors like demographic shifts, affordability concerns, and skepticism about the value of a college degree have led to decreased college enrollment.

With these causes in mind, it’s worth reflecting on what we know and considering the consequences of a stagnant-to-low enrollment future.

Enrollment Data in Kansas

K-12 public school enrollment in Kansas has remained largely stagnant over the past decade, with only a slight statewide decline of -.3%: from 463,266 full-time equivalent (FTE) students in 2015 to 461,902 in 2024.

While statewide totals have held steady, the underlying story is one of divergence. Rural and small-town districts, especially in western and southeastern Kansas, are disproportionately experiencing enrollment losses. For example, Healy (USD 468) lost 70.5% of its student population; Fowler (USD 225) and Rolla (USD 217) lost 54.2% and 51.5%, respectively, over the last ten years.

On the other hand, suburban and exurban districts, especially those located in or near the KC and Wichita metro areas, have seen large enrollment gains. Districts like Spring Hill (USD 230), Piper-Kansas City (USD 203), and Blue Valley-Riley (USD 384) reported growth of more than 40%.

In addition, Kansas higher education enrollment has also declined modestly in the past five years, but recent data from Fall 2024 show signs of stabilization. While enrollment across the system is up 4% from last year, it is down -2.6% compared to 2019 enrollment levels. What’s more, the rebound in enrollment is uneven: some institutions have continued to lose students while others are experiencing growth that outpaces pre-pandemic levels.

State Universities: Sector-wide, enrollment is down -2.8% over five years but grew by 2.3% in 2024. The University of Kansas and Wichita State University have exceeded their 2019 levels, but Emporia State and Fort Hayes State remain well below.
Community Colleges: After steep drops, this sector is rebounding with a 5.9% increase in 2024. Still, overall enrollment is -4.9% below 2019, with wide variation across institutions.
Technical Colleges and Municipal Universities: Technical colleges show the strongest growth compared to the other sectors, with an increase of 18.1% over five years. Washburn University and its tech institute also posted strong annual gains but remain slightly below their 2019 enrollment.

Enrollment Data in Missouri

Missouri’s K-12 public school FTE enrollment has experienced a gradual decline over the past seven years, dropping from 882,261 students in 2017 to 858,053 in 2024 — a -2.7% decrease. The sharpest dip occurred during the 2020–21 school year, likely due to pandemic-related disruptions, and while there was a brief rebound in 2022, enrollment has continued to inch downward.

Unlike Kansas, Missouri does not present district-level enrollment data in a format that allows for easy statewide analysis, making it difficult to identify broad trends across district types. Public reporting suggests that suburban districts in areas like St. Charles County, Lee’s Summit, and Wentzville have largely experienced growth or stability.

Missouri’s higher education enrollment has steadily declined over the past five years, according to the most recent data. FTE enrollment as of Fall 2024 remains below pre-pandemic levels across all sectors (-6.4%), although the pace of decline has slowed or flattened in some areas.

Public Four-Years: Enrollment is down -6.1% over five years but remained flat between 2023-2024. Most institutions are experiencing declines with only the University of Missouri-Columbia and Northwest Missouri State University gaining students (9.8% and 3.3% over five years, respectively).
Public Two-Years: While enrollment over five years is down -4.5%, it has grown 3.9% between 2023-2024 and 5% over the last three years, showing positive signs of rebounding.
Independent Institutions: For Independent four-year institutions, overall enrollment is down -7%. However, this category has wide variance: a few institutions are growing very fast — look at Avila University growing 58% — whereas others are losing more than half of their student population over five years. (No data is available for independent two-year institutions).

Looking Forward

The National Center on Education Statistics releases long-term projections for K-12 enrollment, with the most recent data indicating widespread enrollment decline picking up through 2031.

SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics

Kansas and Missouri are expected to lose an additional -7% and -3% of K-12 students, respectively. They are projected to join the other 40 states with lower enrollment totals in the future; only 10 states are expected to grow their student population in six years.

NCES also provides projections for total higher education enrollments, showing a leveling off if not marginal decline through 2030. Much will depend on college-going rates going forward.

As student counts decline, the fiscal pressure intensifies. Both K-12 and higher education systems are fundamentally tied to enrollment. In K-12, state funding formulas are based on the number of students served, while higher education institutions depend on tuition revenue and state appropriations that are often enrollment-driven.

In response, many districts and institutions are weighing difficult decisions—pausing new hires, reducing staff, rethinking academic offerings, and in some cases, consolidating with neighboring schools or campuses.

Still, it’s important to recognize that declining enrollment is not universally negative. Smaller student populations can lead to lower student-to-teacher ratios and more personalized learning environments. But for many small and rural districts, the loss of students—and the resources that follow—raises existential questions about long-term viability and community identity.

Aligned’s Take: Enrollment declines may appear gradual, but their implications are far-reaching. Addressing them will demand hard choices at both the state and local levels. Our response — how we retool institutions and redesign policies — will ultimately define how education adapts to a future with fewer students.

Missouri Update

House Budget Committee Advances $8.2 Billion Education Funding Bill

This week, the Missouri House Budget Committee approved HB 2, allocating $8.2 billion for elementary and secondary education in the upcoming fiscal year. The committee's version of the bill also diverges from several of Governor Mike Kehoe's early childhood priorities. Specifically, it excludes the Governor's proposed increase to the child care subsidy program, which would have raised funding from $259.8 million to $366.5 million to support prospective payments to providers based on enrollment; leaves out a $17.9 million increase for the First Steps program, which provides early intervention services for infants and toddlers with developmental delays; and does not include the Governor’s proposed $20.8 million increase for Early Childhood Special Education.

These decisions will likely surface in floor debate next week as lawmakers weigh Missouri's long-term investment in its youngest learners. Additionally, the bill faces an uncertain environment in the state Senate, where Appropriations Committee Chairman Senator Lincoln Hough (R-Springfield) has vowed to fully fund the ongoing implementation of SB 727, passed in 2024, which would require a significant increase in funding levels compared to the House Committee version approved this week.

This, That, and the Other

Missouri's education funding primarily derives from three key sources:

General Revenue: Funds generated from sales, income, and use taxes; this category rises and falls with the economy. FY26 = $4.41 billion

Federal Funds: Funds sent to states for specific programs such as Title I, IDEA, and child nutrition. FY26 = $1.60 billion

Other Funds: Funds received from gaming, lottery sales, tobacco taxes, and court settlements—often earmarked for education but less visible in public debate. FY26 = $2.19 billion

What’s in the "Other" bucket?

HB 2 includes $2.19 billion from “Other Funds” to support elementary and secondary education. Roughly $813 million comes from gaming and lottery revenue, routed through trust funds like the Classroom Trust Fund and from a dedicated 1% sales tax deposited into the School District Trust Fund. These sources help fund the Foundation Formula, transportation, special education, and other public school programs.

The remaining $1.38 billion comes from a mix of other dedicated sources—including tobacco settlement funds, endowments and trusts, interest earnings, and state and federal pass-through accounts. These funds are often earmarked for specific uses but receive far less public attention than general revenue or federal dollars.

For a deeper dive into how gaming revenue flows through Missouri and Kansas, check out our October article on gaming revenue.

Sticking points

Key funding issues at the center of the HB 2 debate include:

Child Care Subsidies: The House budget proposal maintains child care subsidy funding at $259.8 million, rejecting Governor Kehoe’s proposed $106.7 million increase.

That increase was intended to shift Missouri’s payment model from reimbursing providers based on daily attendance to prospective payments based on enrollment—a change encouraged by new federal guidance. Supporters say the shift would help stabilize child care programs and support working families; critics argue the cost is unsustainable.

Read more here.

*To learn more about how private school choice programs like ESAs work—and the facts and debates surrounding them—check out Bellwether's new explainer: Public Money, Private Choice: The Components and Critiques of Education Savings Accounts.

Aligned's take: Six weeks remain until the constitutional deadline to pass the FY25 budget. HB 2 may look very different by then.

Teacher Externship Bill Unanimously Passes Missouri House

This week, the Missouri House voted 142-0 to advance HCS HB 267 , sponsored by Rep. Brenda Shields, R-St. Joseph, a bill that removes the sunset on the state's teacher externship program and extends a separate exemption allowing retired teachers to substitute teach without losing retirement benefits through 2030.

Teacher externships are short-term professional learning experiences that place K–12 educators in workplaces across Missouri—ranging from hospitals and construction firms to IT companies and manufacturers. These placements, typically around 120 hours, help educators better understand current workforce trends, skill demands, and job opportunities so they can bring that insight back to their classrooms.

"They've studied to be educators, not welders, engineers, nurses, or IT specialists," Shields said during a hearing. "This legislation allows them to see what's out there and return to the classroom to talk with students about real careers—and even build lesson plans around what they've learned."

The business community has also thrown i ts support behind the bill. Cade Tremaine of the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry told lawmakers that externships are vital for education and business collaboration. "Educators engaging in local businesses will build lasting relationships between the business community and schools," he said.

The Missouri Chamber Foundation operates the Show Me Careers externship program in partnership with the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and regional organizations. The initiative has reached more than 890 educators from 149 school districts and partnered with nearly 100 employers—including Ameren, Cerner, Oracle, Children's Mercy, and Emery Sapp & Sons.

Aligned has long supported Missouri’s teacher externship initiative, backing the original legislation when it passed in 2019 and continuing that support today. "This program is especially useful for school districts and teachers in rural Missouri who maybe take the opportunity to go and participate in an externship at an industry or a business that isn't located in their community and can bring that viewpoint and expertise back to their students," testified Garrett Webb on behalf of Aligned.

For more details on Aligned Priority Bills, including other key education measures advancing this session, click here.

Read our weekly report.

Budget and Revenue

On Monday, the House Budget Committee approved a $47.9 billion budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2026, which begins July 1. The proposed budget is around $2.1 billion less than the budget proposed by Governor Mike Kehoe during his State of the State Address in January and, among other things, includes:

$50 million in General Revenue for empowerment savings accounts to provide scholarships to qualifying children to attend private schools,
A 1% cost of living adjustment for state employees for every two years of service up to 5% of their salary (a reduction of the Governor's proposal of 1% for every two years of service up to 10%)
$700,000 to support the state's child abuse and neglect reporting hotline
A reduction of $650 million in federal emergency education and nutritional services spending authority which was not received by the state
$5 million each for the early literacy and home reading programs and $3 million for evidence-based reading instruction programs
$1.2 million for career readiness assessments and vocational instruction credentialing programs for high school students
$1.6 million for teacher recruitment and retention scholarships
A transfer of $14 million from DESE's Office of Childhood to the Office of Administration Children's Trust Fund for home visiting program administration
A reduction of $105 million in federal childcare subsidy payments, which will expire
$12 million in General Revenue to provide public charter school operators with low-interest loans for facility capital improvements and maintenance
$1 million to support public institutions of higher education in re-engagement of students who have not completed a degree or certificate program
$5 million to establish a community childcare exchange program between families, employers, and communities
$19 million for a new state park in McDonald County
$3 million in Federal Funds to develop a small modular nuclear reactor program at Missouri S&T
$1 million to develop an incentive program for recruitment and retention of police officers in St. Louis city
$5 million to establish the Missouri Veterans Opportunity and Job Training program
$500,000 to recruit police officers from minority and marginalized communities to serve in St. Louis city and county
$600,000 to staff the Missouri sports wagering program

The full budget is expected to be debated by the full House next week before being sent to the Senate for consideration and must be fully approved by both chambers by May 9th.

In other news

Kansas Update

Conference Committee Legislative Update

The end of the 2025 legislative session is fast approaching, and this week lawmakers are taking an important step in passing legislation: holding conference committees.

When legislation passes out of both bodies, but there are differences in the House and Senate version of the legislation, a conference committee is appointed by leadership to resolve differences and find compromises.

It has been a few weeks, so let’s look and see where Aligned’s legislative priorities are in

the process.

Not Moving Forward

SB 87 was not referred to a committee in time, so it was removed from the calendar – meaning it won’t move forward this session unless reintroduced another way.

This bill would have expanded eligibility for the tax credit for low-income students scholarship program, a type of school choice policy known as a tax-credit scholarship.

To Be Determined

Since our last update, HB 2402, which would create a Blue Ribbon Commission on Higher Education, was approved by the House 98-24. The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Education, where it has been since 03/19/2025, and will need to pass out of committee and the full body for it to have a chance to become law, barring any amendments that would trigger a conference committee.

House Sub. for HB 2294 passed the House 103-15 and was referred to the Senate Committee on public Health and Welfare on 03/25/2025.

This legislation creates the Kansas Office of Early Childhood to streamline oversight of all early childhood programs, funding, and policies in the state. It transfers responsibilities from existing agencies, updates childcare licensing rules, and sets new staffing and training requirements for providers. The bill allows for pilot programs to expand access to childcare, simplifies licensing for small providers, and adds protections for religious exemptions to immunizations. The new office will fully take over these responsibilities by July 1, 2026.

Awaiting the Governor’s Signature or Veto

HB 2185 was passed by the Senate 39-1 and was presented to Governor Laura Kelly on 03/24/2025. This bill expands the Kansas National Guard Educational Assistance Act to allow eligible Guard members to sponsor one dependent to receive tuition assistance and would broaden the EMERGE Program to include advanced degrees beyond a master’s, such as professional and doctoral degrees.

HB 2033 was passed by the Senate 31-9 and presented to the Governor on 03/25/2025. The legislation will allow nonprofit organizations accredited by the International Multisensory Structured Language Education Council (IMSLEC) to receive funding from school districts’ at-risk education funds. The bill aims to support IMSLEC-accredited literacy programs, such as those offered by the Phillips Fundamental Learning Center.

During conference committee, the original contents of SB 44, which focused on expanding the Kansas Promise Scholarship Program, were removed. In their place, the committee inserted provisions from Substitute for HB 2299, which declares antisemitism and antisemitic acts to be against the public policy of Kansas. The revised bill adopts the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism and includes specific prohibitions related to education and law enforcement settings. The final version also affirms that nothing in the bill should be construed to infringe on rights protected under the First Amendment.

The conference committee bill related to antisemitism was adopted by the House (102-21) and the Senate (39-1).

Special Education Funding Remains a Key Debate

As Kansas lawmakers negotiated the budget for Fiscal Year 2026, special education funding remains one of the most closely watched issues.

Following a $75 million increase last year — part of a five-year plan to reach the state’s statutory obligation to fund 92% of school districts’ excess special education costs — this year’s proposals signal a potential slowdown. The House has recommended a $10 million increase, while the Senate has offered no new funding. Without sustained investment, school districts say the state’s contribution could slip below the 75.4% level reached this year.

Districts Voice Budgetary Concerns

A joint letter from Johnson County school districts brought the issue into sharp focus. District leaders warned that a lack of additional funding would force schools to continue drawing from general education budgets to meet federally mandated special education needs.

They argue this has real implications for classroom instruction, staffing, and student supports—not just for students with disabilities, but for all learners. The districts emphasized that the $75 million increase last year was a down payment, not a full solution.

Others have countered that overall education funding is increasing through other components of the school finance formula, including base per-pupil aid and CPI adjustments. They note that special education is just one part of a broader funding picture and that schools are receiving new investments from multiple sources.

Still, advocates for increased funding maintain that fulfilling the state’s specific obligation for special education is both a legal and moral imperative.

The Legislature ultimately approved a budget for FY 2026 that included a $10 million increase in special education reimbursement funding.

The Pitfalls of Reimbursement and Possible Alternatives

Kansas currently operates under a reimbursement-based model for special education funding. Districts must first spend their own resources on special education services and then seek partial reimbursement from the state. This system can create planning uncertainty, especially for districts with rising student needs or limited general fund flexibility.

Other states have adopted different models that may offer more predictability. As noted in our policy brief, several states now use student-weighted funding formulas or census-based approaches that allocate dollars based on student characteristics or enrollment figures. These models can reduce administrative burden and offer greater stability in budgeting year over year.

Iowa, for instance, provides additional funding for special education students based on their classroom placement (Iowa Code Ann. § 256B.9): 80% more for special education students in a regular classroom, 120% more for those in a full-time separate classroom, and 340% more for students with severe or multiple disabilities. States like Kentucky (Ky. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 157.200) and Ohio (Ohio Rev. Code Ann. § 3317.013) assign different categories and corresponding funding amounts based on their disability type.

Aligned’s Take: As Kansas looks ahead to a new school funding formula in 2027, shifting to a model that aligns more closely with student enrollment and needs — rather than relying on annual reimbursement debates — may offer greater clarity and consistency.

Read the legislative report.

See the Conference Comparison of House and Senate Appropriations for FY 2025, FY 2026 and FY 2027

In other news

Supporting Students Who Serve Too

Did you know that the average military-connected child moves every two to three years and sometimes will change schools six to nine times before graduation? Frequent moves and deployments will test the resiliency of a student who is constantly starting over with new coursework, teachers, and friends.

In 1986, Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger designated April as the Month of the Military Child to recognize military children and the sacrifices they and their families make on behalf of national security. In 2006, the U.S. Department of Defense (USDoD) teamed up with the Council of State Governments (CSG) and the National Center for Interstate Compacts to identify ways to ease some of the educational challenges that children from military families face.

This action led to the Military Interstate Children’s Compact Commission (MIC3), which created a compact allowing military children to receive uniform treatment as they transfer between school districts. This agreement helps them deal with specific things like records transfer, course sequencing, graduation requirements, exclusion from extra-curricular activities, missed entrance/exit tests, and custodial placements when parents deploy.

All 50 states participate in the compact, including the District of Columbia and the Department of Defense Education Activity (DoDEA). Each member state has a commissioner and a council to ensure the state complies with the policy platform.

Kansas, home to Fort Leavenworth, Fort Riley, and McConnell Air Force Base, was the first state to adopt the compact into state statute in 2008. The Sunflower State has 20,477 active-duty service members and 14,696 active-duty children. Districts like Derby and Spring Hill have embraced the initiative, appointing staff liaisons, launching student-led peer support programs, and providing professional development for educators.

Missouri, home to Whiteman Air Force Base and Fort Leonard Wood, was one of the original 11 states to adopt the compact in June 2008. The Show-Me State has 12,826 active-duty service members and 10,570 active-duty children . In communities such as Waynesville, Sedalia, and Warrensburg, schools are working to ease enrollment and credit transfers and provide emotional support for kids as they navigate transitions.

Next week, MIC3 and the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education will kick off the Month of the Military Child in the Capitol Rotunda by recognizing the 25 public school districts and individual schools that earned the 2025 Purple Star designation.

“This program is just one way to reiterate our state’s commitment to our service members,” said Commissioner of Education Karla Eslinger. “As we kick off April as the Month of the Military Child, it is an honor to award these Purple Star designations. Each of the schools and districts works to support service members and their families in their local community while also ensuring military children are prepared for success later in life.”

As of 2025, 43 states have adopted or proposed Purple Star programs. Kansas will announce its Purple Star Schools next month.

Upcoming Events

Learn How School Boards Can Lead Through Today's Fiscal Challenges

As federal relief funds expire and costs rise, school boards are making the hardest calls in public education—what to fund, what to cut, and how to do more with fewer students. At a time when every dollar counts, these decisions will shape student outcomes for years to come.

That's why we're excited to bring Dr. Marguerite Roza and the team from Georgetown's Edunomics Lab to Kansas City this June. Their work is reshaping how school leaders approach financial decision-making, and this event is your chance to learn directly from the experts—and walk away with a certificate in education finance from Georgetown University.

Join us June 10–11 as we dig into how school boards and policymakers can navigate today’s fiscal headwinds while keeping students at the center.

Learn more and register here.

Special thanks to our event sponsors:

Venue Sponsor – Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation

Platinum Sponsor – Missouri Charter School Association

Gold Sponsors – U.S. Engineering & Holland 1916 Inc.

Bronze Sponsors – JE Dunn Construction, KIDaccount & BMG Advisors

Our brains hurt from number crunching...time for nachos and b-ball.

Until next week,

Torree Pederson

President

Aligned

Torree@WeAreAligned.org

(913) 484-4202

Linda Rallo

Vice President

Aligned

Linda@WeAreAligned.org

(314) 330-8442

Visit our Website

About Aligned

Aligned is the only state-wide non-profit, nonpartisan business group working in Kansas and Missouri on educational issues impacting the full development of our children, from supporting high-quality early learning to solid secondary programs that provide rigorous academic programs and real-world learning opportunities.

Our vision is that our public education systems in Kansas and Missouri have the resources and flexibility to prepare students to pursue the future of their choice.

We are currently focused on education policies that will strengthen early childhood education, teacher recruitment and retention, and school finance reform.

Learn more about our work.