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How is cutting immigration going to impact the job market?
Editorial by Christian Saint Cyr
National Director / Canadian Job Development Network
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Canada is projected to see 8.1 million job openings between 2024 and 2033, with retirements accounting for nearly 70% of new vacancies, according to the latest projections from the federal government.
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According to research in the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS), developed by Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), 2.6 million jobs will need to be filled by immigrants over the next 10 years, or approximately 260,000 new workers each year.
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The current goal for new immigrants set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is 395,000 in 2025; 380,000 in 2026; and 365,000 in 2027. This is considerably down from the half million immigrants goal previously set by the Liberal Government.
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While a federal election is set for the fall, once Parliament returns in the spring, both the federal Conservatives and the NDP have said they will call for a non-confidence motion against the government. This could easily mean we have a new Conservative government before summer.
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Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has proposed bringing immigration numbers down to 250,000 immigrants per year, which would align more closely to immigration levels set during the last Conservative government.
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While that 250,000 number is closer to the number of new immigrant workers we'll need (260,000), we need to remember that not all immigrants are workers. Many are children and other dependents. Also, immigrants continue to struggle with finding employment as well as higher levels of unemployment, and many are enrolled in school.
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It's not as though as soon as immigrants come into the country they're immediately furnished with a job.
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I'm really not trying to be political here. I'm not saying the Liberal plan is better simply because their numbers are higher. I think it was hasty to withdraw so much of their immigration plan all at once.
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And while cuts to settlement programming and our immigration department may win over public approval, we need to serve the enormous number of immigrants who've already arrived in Canada in the past few years.
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And while the Conservatives are floating this quarter-million number right now, once they are in office and understand that immigration is directly tied to the ability of businesses to recruit the workers they need to function, it's possible they will change their objectives.
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If I were to editorialize for a moment, wouldn't it be great if immigration was based on labour market needs and not what polled best with the public? Perhaps we can set policy based on data and not pull the numbers out of thin air.
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The best way to look at the labour market is as though it was on a scale. On one side we place the 8.1 million workers we need to recruit in the next 10 years. On the other side, we include the 5.9 million young people expected to enter the job market out of school and the 2.6 million immigrants we need to recruit. We add to this 1.29 million unemployed people and 180,000 few workers due to earlier retirement and the scale is relatively balanced.
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Canadians have strong feelings towards immigration these days. Having such a significant increase in immigration, coupled with a greater reliance on temporary foreign workers, record numbers of international students and increased commitments to support refugees has placed a strain on our available housing, health care services and education.
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If we go back to the scale analogy, if we're going to significantly reduce the number of immigrant workers available, where do we get those workers.
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There is one additional pool of workers that are neither immigrants nor young people entering the job market for the first time and this is working age adults (15-64) who aren't looking for work, working or going to school. This includes stay-at-home parents, those caring for elders, those with disabilities and people who's skills are a mismatch for the job market.
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In the January 2025, there were almost 6.6 million people who fit into this category. Research suggests nearly a third of these people would like to work (over 2 million people), if personal issues could be accommodated.
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If politicians want to reduce immigration, they should ensure there are increased supports for these populations in the place of more available childcare, seniors care, disability supports and skills training.
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In an article on this topic, HRD (a human resources magazine published by Business Information Canada) provides three suggestions about how employers can navigate the next ten years and cultivate the workforce that is going to best serve them.
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These suggestions include:
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Think locally, invest locally: Rather than competing for young, urban professionals, winning players will make their businesses the employer of choice in their local communities, intervening earlier in the pipeline to create flow and training individuals who have already made the area their home.
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Unleash the heart of frontline leaders: Most managers want to do right by their people, but few receive the training to provide the empathetic support that can have the most profound effect on employee satisfaction and retention.
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Allow schedules to flex and skills to expand: A lack of flexibility and career advancement opportunities are the most common reasons workers cite for leaving their jobs. But while flex work has become a post-pandemic mainstay in many sectors, industrial companies have been slower to adapt, with many assuming the nature of their business precludes such arrangements.
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When you're talking to employers, it's helpful for them to understand that cuts to immigration result in a tightening labour force. Underrepresented workers, including youth, mature workers, immigrants, Indigenous Canadians and those with disabilities, can often be the pathway to greater workforce stability and a more loyal employee.
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We’ll be discussing the valuable contribution immigrants make to our labour market and how to address cuts to immigration at our #MotivatingMondays meeting of the Canadian Job Development Network, Monday Mar. 3rd at 8:30am Pacific; 9:30am Mountain; 10:30am Central; 11:30am Eastern; 12:30pm Atlantic and at 1pm in Newfoundland.
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On the morning of Monday March 3rd 'Click this Link' to join the session LIVE.
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