Tuesday, August 08, 2023

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The SAIS Review of International Affairs is accepting submissions for our Fall 2023 Print Edition, “Water Wars”.

International and transboundary waters are a potential point of conflict between nations, and the diplomacy created from shared waters is worth studying. Even though treaties and intergovernmental organizations exist to handle aquatic disputes, recent failures–such as The Mekong River Commission failing to enforce the Greater Mekong Sub region and China’s disregard of the ICJ’s ruling of Philippines v. China–prove their ineffectiveness. Moreover, shared waters are affected even without nations stepping across boundaries. Unsustainable fishing (e.g. destructive trawling) depletes fish populations; dam projects and pollution affect downstream riparian states; and climate change and growing populations threaten freshwater resources. In a sense, international and transboundary waters are metaphorically “muddy” as they complicate and influence diplomatic relations between nations. This journal topic can include papers on how sharing water resources affect diplomatic relations and also papers that analyze aquatic disputes from the past and present in order to chart a path for future governance.

Our Fall 2023 Issue will explore how diplomatic relations can be impacted by disputes over water management, water law, and maritime politics. This issue seeks to explore questions such as the following: How do water rights impact the creation and implementation of countries’ foreign policy? How can international institutions prevent conflict between nations over the accessibility, ownership, and use of water? How will water affect political trends in the regions most affected by climate change and resource degradation?

Authors, policymakers, professionals, academics, and activists with relevant expertise including those focusing on the North Africa sub-region may submit to sais.review@gmail.com.

Abstracts are due August 22, 2023 and Manuscripts are due September 11, 2023.

Mideast Countries That Are Already Struggling Fear Price Hikes After Russia Exits Grain Deal

Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Lebanon, and Pakistan, are fearing potential rises in global food prices in response to Russia's withdrawal from a wartime grain deal. This deal, managed by the UN and Turkey, previously allowed Ukraine's grain to continue flowing amid the global food crisis. The disruption has engendered concern over mounting costs for businesses, households, and governments already grappling with economic challenges, whilst raising uncertainties about future food security in these lower-income countries.

Three Oil Majors Say Resuming Operations In Libya

Three of the world's leading oil corporations are set to resume operations in Libya after a hiatus of 10 years, as reported by the Libyan National Oil Company. The country's improved security scenario has enabled Italy's Eni and British Petroleum to lift force majeure, subsequently restarting exploration and contractual responsibilities in designated blocks. Algeria’s Sonatrach has also recommenced its activities, marking a potential upturn for Libya, a nation marked by conflict and instability, yet home to Africa's largest oil reserves.

Tunisia’s Hunger Games

Tunisia is grappling with a severe food crisis, with over a quarter of the population experiencing food insecurity, forced by basic product shortages to count on a network of connections and favours. The situation is a product of both external factors, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resultant global food price hikes, and internal government policies that have resulted in insufficient incentives for production as well as a financial inability to facilitate food imports. The rampant speculation has led to a lackadaisical government response, leaving citizens unsure about the future amidst dwindling resources and increasing hardships.

EU’s Fear of Migration is Back—But A Squalid Deal With Tunisia is No Way to Tackle It

In response to concerns about increased irregular migration, European Union (EU) leaders have brokered a controversial deal with Tunisia, channeling €255m immediately, alongside the promise of a further €900m contingent upon an IMF deal. The deal, intended to address migrant flows via bolstering Tunisian border controls, draws comparisons to the earlier and contentious EU-Turkey agreement, yielding warnings of potential human rights issues. Critics argue this strategy, serving to 'outsource' the EU's migration conundrum to poorer nations, neglects viable solutions addressing the root causes of migration and undermines democracy and human rights norms.

Morocco Tightens Its Grip On Western Sahara

Israel’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara marks a substantial setback for the Sahrawi independence movement and solidifies Morocco's position over a region known for its substantial phosphate reserves. Meanwhile, a 2021 European Court of Justice ruling established the Polisario, the Sahrawis' political and military establishment, as a legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people, challenging EU-Morocco agreements over resource exploitation. However, international support for Sahrawi independence wanes, raising concerns about their future self-determination, even as Morocco faces accusations of breaching international law and UN resolutions.

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Eni Revokes Force Majeure On Libyan Exploration Assets

Italian energy company Eni has formally revoked its force majeure status on Libyan exploration areas A, B (onshore) and C (offshore), a status that was declared in 2014 due to security risks. The move follows a positive Security Risk Assessment and enables the resumption of contract activities in exploration basins. Eni, which operates with a 42.5% stake, is Libya's leading gas producer and domestic market supplier, holding an 80% share of national production.

Egypt Surprises With Rate Hike Even as Devaluation Delayed

In a surprising move, Egypt's central bank has raised deposit and lending interest rates to an all-time high since 2006, reaching 19.25 percent and 20.25 percent respectively, in a bid to curb unprecedented inflation levels. This comes despite the anticipation of no increase until sufficient foreign-currency reserves are amassed for further pound devaluation. The decision coincides with rising consumer costs linked to three monetary devaluations since early 2022 and burgeoning inflation, set to peak in 2023, leading to concerns over the country's course amidst a severe economic crisis amid depleted foreign exchange.

Tunisian Parliament Gets Defensive After Black Refugee Treatment Criticism

Tunisia faces criticism from the European Commission over its expulsion of over 1,200 Black refugees and migrants toward desert regions near the Libyan and Algerian borders. The country has committed to improve its migration policies under an agreement of €105m ($115m) support from the European Union. Despite this, Tunisia's authorities have dismissed allegations and remain committed to the controversial policy, raising concerns among European parliamentarians and rights groups.

Libyan Governing Body's Vote to Replace Its Head Adds Uncertainty to the Country's Split Politics

Libya's Supreme Council of State has elected Mohamed Takala as its new head, succeeding Khaled el-Meshri, in a move that could heighten tension in the country's politically divided landscape. The council, though distinct from both rival governments in Libya, plays a critical role in the oversight of election laws. The change in leadership compounds the uncertainty surrounding Libya's tenuous political situation, as it grapples with establishing election laws in an effort to end the nation's decade-long power vacuum.

Maghreb-Europe : Coup pour Coup

What if the Italian far right spoke the same language as some North African leaders? Seemingly an aberration. In recent facts, a reality. Proof of this is the official visit of the Tunisian president to Rome this Sunday. Since his coup d'état carried out on July 25, 2021, the man had not set foot in Europe, but, since the election of Giorgia Meloni at the helm of the Italian executive, a new discourse and a new method have emerged and are imposed within the European institutions. No more simpering calls for "human rights", for democratic values, election observation missions, reminders of humanitarian regulations [...], all this stuff has been buried in the basement of the roundabout Schuman at the the European Quarter in Brussels...

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Perspectives

Arab Center Washington DC

Disinformation as a Tool of Regime Survival in Tunisia

Tunisian President Kais Saied leverages disinformation as a tool to consolidate power, perpetuating a volatile political landscape that exacerbates the country's crises. Under his rule, the government utilizes tools like Decree Law no. 54 of 2022 to stifle dissent, while his supporters proliferate conspiracy theories and engage in online harassment to intimidate critics. Despite Saied’s undermining of democracy and human rights, Western governments continue to provide the regime with resources and legitimacy, further worsening Tunisia’s political and economic turmoil.

C. Ian DeHaven

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Congressional Affairs Intern

Arab Center Washington DC

Wilson Center • ViewPoints Series

Sub-Saharan African Migrants in North Africa: Morocco Shows a Way Forward

Sub-Saharan African migrants in North Africa, most seeking passage to Europe, are enduring significant bias and discrimination. However, Morocco stands out for embracing a more inclusive approach towards these migrants. Under King Mohammed VI, the country has adopted a regional policy fostering stronger partnerships with Sub-Saharan nations and now hosts a large migrant community, providing legal status to nearly 50,000 individuals. This humane approach contrasts with the repressive policies and xenophobic attitudes seen elsewhere in North Africa, positioning Morocco as an emblem of potential reform in the region.

Stephen J. King

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Professor of Political Science

Georgetown University

Arab Center Washington DC

The Fate of the Wagner Group in Syria, Libya, and Sudan

The Wagner Group, a private Russian mercenary army led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, props up certain factions and governments in Syria, Libya, and Sudan, lengthening these conflicts and enabling human rights abuses and resource exploitation. However, following Prigozhin's failed mutiny against the Russian military, the group's future is uncertain with suggestions that the mercenaries might come under direct Russian military control. Amid these developments, the group continues to operate in Africa, believed to be due to strategic and economic benefits. Yet, divergences between the objectives of Wagner and the Russian government, particularly in Libya and Sudan, complicate the collaboration and put the future relationship and operations of the group in ambiguity.



Gregory Aftandilian

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Nonresident Fellow

Arab Center Washington DC

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) • Commentary

Forming Unity Government May be Libya’s Best Bet for Healing Rift

Libya's House of Representatives (HoR), based in Tobruk, backed by the rival Tripoli-based assembly, the High State Council, and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, has proposed to create a unity government aimed at unifying the country's two parallel executives. The plan, albeit facing widespread criticism, could potentially mend the decade-old schism that has divided Libya. With many arguing that general elections should precede forming a government, the appointed 6+6 Committee asserts that establishing a unity government is the preliminary step towards fresh elections, leading the country out of the political stalemate. However, the viability of the plan heavily rests upon the international endorsement for a transparent process to select a prime minister for the proposed unity government.



Claudia Gazzini

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Senior Analyst for Libya

International Crisis Group

Arab Center Washington DC

Climate Change in the Middle East Is a Humanitarian Crisis

Climate change has engendered a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East, manifesting in water scarcity, desertification, increased extreme weather events, and various knock-on effects further destabilizing an already volatile region. Despite this, the international community's response remains lackluster, with policies frequently prioritizing business opportunities and short-term profit over long-term sustainability and humanitarian needs. While some positive steps have been taken, such as establishing a "loss and damage" fund to assist developing countries, efforts are insufficiently comprehensive and do not tackle vital issues such as climate-caused migration with the urgency they demand.

David Kanbergs

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Publications Editor

Arab Center Washington DC

Wilson Center • Enheduanna

Three Waves of Gender Reform in Tunisia: Reflections on the Eve of National Women’s Day

Tunisia's progressive gender reforms can be categorized into three waves, with the first happening in 1956, granting women citizenship rights, the second in the 1990s, focusing on citizenship law reforms, and the third wave emerging during the 2010 Arab Spring uprisings, culminating in women gaining increased political representation. Despite these achievements, recent backsliding and implementation issues have raised concern over women's rights, with the removal of gender quotas in the 2022 elections exacerbating this situation. However, supporting Tunisian civil society and women's rights activists remains key to maintaining and expanding progress on gender equality.



Maro Youssef

—

Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Southern California;

Fellow, Institute for Middle East Studies (GWU) and Strauss Center for International Security and Law (UT-Austin)

Stay informed.

Stay ahead.

See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.

You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:

Lana Bleik

Senior Research Program Coordinator 

The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of the North African region's challenges and opportunities.