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Strategic Foresight
How can boards better anticipate the industry’s future? We refer to that capability as strategic foresight, or the need for boards to look past quarterly financials into how broader events and trends could impact their institution. It’s one of nine traits of a healthy board culture shared in Bank Director’s Corporate Governance Workshop, which convenes this Sunday in advance of the Bank Board Forum in Austin, Texas.
I’d suggest two questions to exercise that muscle in your boardroom:
Can our bank compete in a stablecoin economy? Bank Director’s 2026 Technology Survey, released this week, finds that bankers view stablecoin as overhyped, and only 10% have formed strategies for their institution’s approach.
I understand the skepticism — few customers are clamoring for stablecoin. But there are real concerns that stablecoin issuers could draw deposits out of the banking system, and powerful fiscal forces are at play. Larry Pruss, managing director, emerging payment technologies at the advisory firm SRM, told me last summer that some of those pressures are coming from a federal government that wants to ensure the U.S. economy remains dominant. “We’re being pushed, screaming and kicking, into this new world of more digitized money, more instant settlement, more programmability and more automation,” he said. Stablecoin issuers are also building reserves of U.S. Treasurys, meaning they own a growing percentage of the federal debt, according to an October 2025 Brookings paper.
The national debt keeps growing. What happens if the U.S. defaults? This could be a trickier question because it’s a scenario that’s both unprecedented and promises broad economic stress. U.S. debt spiked due to the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and stood at $37.6 trillion as of fiscal year 2025, or 124% of gross domestic product. The conflict in Iran has so far added another $38 billion to the tab. As of August 2026, the U.S. was spending $1.3 trillion, or 19% of total federal spending, just to maintain the debt. Those payments are expected to escalate, according to projections from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. The GAO called this an “unsustainable” fiscal path.
Charles Baum, a Republican state legislator in Tennessee and economics professor at Middle Tennessee State University, believes another $12 trillion in debt could lead the U.S. to default. “This is the biggest economic challenge we face,” he said at a recent Tennessee Bankers Association event.
• Emily McCormick, vice president of editorial & research for Bank Director
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