ACF Drought and Water Update
January 25, 2022
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin
Drought and Water Monthly Webinar
The ACF Basin is drought-free according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (data as of 1/18/2022).  

Webinar recording can be found here.

The ACF Drought and Water Webinar will resume on Tuesday,
February 22, 2022 at 1:00pm ET.

Register here for upcoming ACF monthly webinars.
Sign up for ACF drought list here.
Introducing the ACF River Basin Drought & Water Dashboard
Upcoming Events
Contact Gail Cowie at gcowie@h2opolicycenter.org
with questions
Southeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Partner Dialogue
March 1-2, 2022 | Atlanta, GA
Registration closes Feb. 14

Drought Prediction and Water Availability: National Listening Session Series
Kick-off Webinar:
February 9, 2022 |1-2pm ET
January Key Points

ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks

  • Active pattern bringing severe weather and winter weather over the last month or more
  • National patterns of rainfall and temperature fairly consistent with La Nina
  • The ACF entirely drought-free, development continues for the coastal Carolinas, SW Alabama, North Florida
  • Above normal rainfall for north Georgia, north Alabama at 30 days, ACF near normal at 90 days
  • La Nina advisory continues, over 95% chance it lasts through the winter and 70% through spring
  • CPC seasonal forecast heavily favors above normal temperatures, below normal rainfall
  • Drought development possible for Florida, lower ACF
  • Alabama - D0 and D1 concentrated in SW Alabama, but no impacts reported. No current AL Drought Declaration


Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the above normal to low range
  • The below normal 7-day average streamflow indicates that the ACF basin is hydrologically drought free
  • 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range
  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the above normal to normal range
  • Real-time groundwater levels at well i.d. 08G001 and 11K003 are currently ranked above normal and normal, respectively
  • No flooding expected in the next 10 days
  • The 1-month and 3-month Southeast River Forecast Center streamflow forecast show near normal conditions


ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions

  • All ACF Basin Projects are currently in their winter pool elevation
  • Lake Lanier and West Point are slightly above winter pool elevation due to the past couple of rainstorms
  • Woodruff is currently ramping down from the past rainstorm and all projects are slowly transitioning back to their winter pool elevations
  • All projects are within Zone 1 and we are currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements
  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 for the next few weeks


Apalachicola Bay Daily Average Salinity Levels

  • Cat Point and East Bay Bottom salinity values were within the 25th-75th percentile range until the end of December, where values then fell into the 10-24th percentile range
  • Dry Bar salinity values remained within the 25th-75th percentile range until the end of the month. Values then rose into the 76th-90th percentile range
  • The area experienced precipitation 9 out of the 31 days of December. River discharge gradually increased throughout the month
Current Drought Status
According to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (data as of 1/18/2022).
0% of the ACF Basin is in drought
Alabama: 12.41% in D0 and 4.85% in D1
Georgia: 11.29% in D0
Florida: 14.48% in D0 and 1.34% in D1
Lawn and Garden Moisture Index
January 25, 2022's Lawn and Garden Index from the University of Alabama at Huntsville displays relatively ubiquitous moisture throughout the ACF Basin.
Rainfall Totals & Departures
30-Day Precipitation Totals
30-day rainfall totals display 5-8 inches in the upper and lower ACF Basin with slightly lower totals in the middle ACF of approximately 3-4 inches.
90-Day Precipitation Departures
90-day rainfall departures are within 1 inch of normal for the majority of the ACF Basin.
NOAA 3 Month Outlook (Feb-Apr)
The NOAA 3-month Seasonal Outlook (Feb-Mar-Apr) favors above normal temperatures and favors a slightly increased chance of below normal rainfall for the ACF Basin.
Real-time Streamflow
Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the above normal to low range.
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee and Flint are in the above normal to normal range.
Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
The two reference groundwater wells (Dougherty and Miller Counties, GA) were ranked above normal and normal, respectively.
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 1/24/2022) 

All ACF Basin projects are currently in their winter pool elevation. All projects are within Zone 1 and currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
Apalachicola Bay
Daily Average Salinity Levels
Cat Point (see above) and East Bay Bottom were within the 25-75th percentile range until the end of December when both station values fell into the 10-24th percentile range. Dry Bar remained within the 25-75th percentile range until the end of December when values rose. The Bay area experienced precipitation 9 out of 31 days of December; therefore, river discharge gradually increased throughout the month.
1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flow conditions.
The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flows.
Acknowledgments 
 
Speakers
David Zierden, FSU
Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Jody Huang, USACE-Mobile District
Samantha Lucas, Apalachicola NERR
Jeff Dobur, SERFC
Meredith Muth, NOAA NIDIS

Summary prepared by:
Rachel McGuire, Auburn University Water Resources Center

Resources

General Drought Information:
 U.S. Drought Portal: http://www.drought.gov  
 U.S. Drought Monitor: http://www.drought.unl.edu 

Drought Impact Reporter:

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map

General Climate and El Niño Information:
  
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting

Groundwater Monitoring
 
Apalachicola Bay NERR Salinity Stations

Info on the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
10-Day Guidance Forecasts:
Official River Stage and Flow Forecasts:
For webinar-related questions, please contact: 

Rachel McGuire