Policy Environment
Donald J. Trump is only the second president in US history to serve non-consecutive terms; the first being Grover Cleveland in 1893. Staff from Trump’s first term have spent much of the last four years planning the return. This advantage has helped contribute to a first week that broke many records including twenty-six Executive Orders on Inauguration Day compared to just one during his first term. The next 100 days will give a better picture of the administration’s ability to pass legislation as an aggressive agenda is taking shape. In addition, “must do” legislation is needed to fund the government and address the debt ceiling.
Republicans are attempting to show unity as the 119th Congress began. This included electing a Speaker of the House on the first ballot despite some drama when the vote initially appeared to fail before a few members eventually changed their votes. This was in sharp contrast to the historic 15 ballots over four days that were needed to elect Kevin McCarthy at the beginning of the 118th Congress. With an even smaller Republican majority, it took nearly perfect party unity to avoid a repeat.
Similar unity will be necessary for Republicans to pass tax legislation. Trump’s signature tax bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, has many provisions that are set to expire this year. The law was enacted through the budget reconciliation process that allows Senate passage with a simple majority and requires most provisions to expire within 10 years. Republicans could reauthorize and update tax cuts without any Democratic support by utilizing the same process. Negotiations are already proving difficult, and Republicans previously had a much larger majority that allowed 13 members to oppose the bill – a cushion that does not exist this time. While much of the discussion is around tax cuts, Republicans will also be looking for ways to pay for the likely $4 trillion price tag.
Senate Republicans continue to hold hearings for Trump’s cabinet nominees and eight have been confirmed to-date including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. It is often said that ‘personnel is policy’ and with an aggressive administrative agenda, the effectiveness of leadership personnel will ultimately determine the level of impact.
President Trump continues to announce nominees including Bill Pulte for Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency while many financial regulators have yet to be identified.
Use of the Congressional Review Act (CRA)
Republicans are likely to use the CRA to roll back regulations from the Biden Administration, but limited information is available on the specific rules under consideration. The CRA is a tool Congress can use to overturn certain federal agency actions. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the Biden Administration rules submitted to the House or Senate on or after Aug. 1, 2024, until the end of the second session of the 118th Congress, are likely to be subject to the CRA lookback provisions and will qualify for CRA review in the first few months of the 119th Congress.
When Trump was first inaugurated in 2017, the Republicans controlled both the House and Senate. Republicans were able to overturn 16 agency rules using the CRA; the process has only been successful 20 times.
FDIC Acting Chair Travis Hill Releases Priorities
Trump appointed Travis Hill as Acting Chair of the FDIC on Inauguration Day and he is also widely expected to become Chair. The following day, Hill released a statement of priorities that included:
- Conduct a wholesale review of regulations, guidance and manuals to ensure our rules and approach promote a vibrant, growing economy.
- Improve the bank merger approval process and replace the 2024 Statement of Policy to ensure that merger transactions that satisfy the Bank Merger Act are approved in a timely way.
- Withdraw problematic proposals from the past three years, such as proposals on brokered deposits and corporate governance.
- Improve the supervisory process to focus more on core financial risks and less on process, and reevaluate the supervisory appeals process.
- Pursue adjustments to our capital and liquidity rules to appropriately balance driving economic growth with ensuring safety and soundness and resilience to shocks.
- Study deposit behavior to develop a more sophisticated understanding of the relative stability of different types of deposits and depositors.
Senate Banking Committee to Hold Debanking Hearing
The Senate Banking Committee scheduled a hearing for Feb. 5, and the House Oversight Committee launched a probe on debanking following comments by President Trump at the World Economic Forum that some banks have denied services to conservative organizations.
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