Newsletter - July 2021
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EXPLORE NANO & MICRO CONTRACTS

  • Bloomberg US Large Cap Futures
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System of the Month: DaGGoR Rider M1C NQ 
Many traders choose to diversify their portfolios with algorithmic trading systems. The following system has been selected as the broker's choice for this month.
REQUIRED CAPITAL: $4,400*
PRODUCT: E-mini Nasdaq future 
SYSTEM TYPE: Intraday
COST: $185 / month
COMMISSION: $7.50 per side 
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data.   
The Global Update Blog
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What Basel III Might Mean for Gold Futures
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Hunting for Hidden Liquidity
When it comes down to a choice between trading a liquid versus an illiquid market, liquid markets are always the preference. (Sometimes, you have a choice.) Sometimes you don't.
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CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REPORT
US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES REPORT
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES & ORDERS - FULL REPORT
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT
INDEPENDENCE DAY (OBSERVED)
MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES & INVENTORIES
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT
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BUSINESS FORMATION STATISTICS
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES REPORT
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE: INVENTORIES & SALES REPORT
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PRELIMINARY US IMPORTS FOR CONSUMPTION OF STEEL PRODUCTS
ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS - MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS...
HOUSING VACANCIES & HOMEOWNERSHIP
ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT
Key Events That Moved the Market in June 2021
The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.

S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Daily Chart - June 1 - 30, 2021 (Source: Tradingview)

Tuesday - June 1
  • Stocks started off in June pretty much how it moved in May with indexes hovering just above their record highs but with no bold movement to the upside.
  • The purchasing managers index manufacturing index in May showed an uptick activity, coming in at 62.1, topping consensus at 61.5.
  • The ISM manufacturing index for the same period, coming in at 61.2, also topped expectations of 60.9.
  • Though construction spending in April was down to 0.2%, missing expectations of 0.6%. 

Wednesday - June 2
  • The stock market’s prolonged pause persists with most of the market energy flowing into speculative stock plays that keep more veteran investors wary of the aggressive action.
  • There were no major reports released today.

Thursday - June 3
  • Stocks took a step back but stayed within its weekly narrow range as traders look forward to a crucial jobs report tomorrow.
  • The ADP jobs report for May came in strong at an estimated 978,000, much higher than the consensus figure of 650,000.
  • More good news--the jobless claims for last week came in under 400k for the first time since the start of the pandemic: 385k new claims were filed.
  • Although there was hardly any change in Q1 for productivity, there was a marked increase in production costs, up 1,7% when -0.3% was expected.
  • The ISM services index wasn’t expected to cool and those forecasts were met when the figure for May came in at 64.0, above the anticipated 63.1.

Friday - June 4
  • The broader market climbed as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.
  • The U.S. economy added 559,000 jobs in May, according to the Labor Department report. The number was slightly lower than the 671,000 figure economists had expected, but still showed a healthy rebound in the labor market as it’s up from a disappointing 266,000 payrolls added in April.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1%, which topped estimates of 5.9%. 
  • However, many analysts believe the jobs report is not strong enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to dial back its bond purchasing program.

Monday - June 7
  • Wall Street kicked off the week near record-high territory though the Dow and S&P 500 both ended the day lower. The Nasdaq ended the day the big winner, barely inching into the green.
  • Consumer credit came in lower than expected at $18.6 billion versus $20 billion.

Tuesday - June 8
  • Today was a relatively quiet day for the markets with little movement on the major averages though all three remain right below their record highs. 
  • Job openings have exceeded consensus range the last four reports as it did today with 9.3 million job openings versus 8 million expected.
  • The labor market remains “tight” however as many of the more than 8 million unemployed have not been flocking to the jobs available over the last few months.

Wednesday - June 9
  • Another sleepy day on Wall Street with the S&P hovering below record highs although the Dow and Nasdaq ended the day fractionally lower.
  •  Yields on the 10-year are backing down dipping below 1.5% giving a boost to tech stocks. 
  • Mortgage applications are down -3.1% though hovering above expectations of a greater decrease of -4.0% over the last week.

Thursday - June 10
  • Smooth sailing for stocks today as the S&P 500 cruised to a new record high.
  • Inflation expectations were topped as the CPI in May showed a surge of 0.6% versus 0.4%.
  • Although this painted a picture of an economy heating up faster than expected, the market seemed to shrug it off as the S&P 500 touched a record high before closing just slightly below it.
  • Jobless claims for the last week continue to trend lower with 376,000 new filings though it was higher than what economists had expected (369,000).

Friday - June 11
  • Major indexes started the day rising with the S&P 500 adding to its new record.
  • The market built on yesterday’s gain as investors shrugged off a Consumer Price Index report--jumping 5% in May from a year earlier--showing inflation rising at its fastest pace since 2008.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell to a three-month low of 1.44% on Friday, giving a boost to stocks, particularly tech stocks.
  • The tech sector tends to underperform in a rising-rate environment as higher rates lower the present value of expected cash flow for growth-oriented companies. 

Monday - June 14
  • The broader market wasn’t volatile today but the S&P 500 closed at another record high; the Nasdaq performed relatively well.
  • Bitcoin rallied to over $39,000 once Elon Music tweeted that Tesla may once again accept the cryptocurrency as long as certain environmental standards are met.
  • There were no major economic reports today.

Tuesday - June 15
  • The broader US market fell slightly early on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting.
  • The final demand index for producer prices in May surged 6.6% year-over-year--the largest increase since PPI data was first calculated in 2010.
  • On a month-over-month basis, the PPI rose 0.8%. This index measures the prices paid to producers as opposed to prices on the consumer level.
  • May’s retail sales came in as a surprise at -1.3%, compared to economist expectations of -0.5%.

Wednesday - June 16
  • It was a volatile trading day, mostly down as markets were spooked by Federal Reserve comments that rate hikes may resume in 2023. 
  • Mainly investors were concerned with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s comments that inflation is heating up higher and faster than expected.
  • Housing starts declined month-over-month to 1.572 million versus the 1.63 million expected.
  • The Federal Reserve maintained the fed funds rate at 0.25% as expected.

Thursday - June 17
  • It was a quiet but choppy trading day with the Dow falling 407 points before rebounding to end the day down 209.
  • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June came in slightly below analyst expectations--30.7 versus 31.
  • Jobless claims for the previous week came in higher than expected with 412,000 new filings versus the expected 359,000.

Friday - June 18
  • Stocks had a rocky end to a wild week with the Dow tumbling 532 right near the session lows, now riding a 5-day losing streak.
  • In contrast, the Nasdaq snapped a -day win streak as tech outperformed all sectors for the week.
  • The Fed’s Jim Bullard sent shivers down Wall Street’s spine when he said that the central bank may be tapering back on asset purchases soon and that the first rate hike may come as early as late next year.
  • Bullard also noted that inflation is rising faster than expected.
  • All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell as the market digested the Fed’s statements.

Monday - June 21
  • Stocks kicked off the week with a solid rebound with the Dow rising 586 points, recouping all of last week’s losses.
  • The S&P and Nasdaq also rebounded, now positive for the month; all 11 sectors are in the green.
  • Cryptocurrencies tumbled upon hearing news of a new government crackdown in China with bitcoin and ethereum suffering sizable pullbacks.

Tuesday - June 22
  • It was another quiet day of market churn although the Nasdaq was able to close at an all-time high of 14,253; the S&P 500 just shy of a record close; the Dow, still 2% of another record milestone.
  • Fed chief Jay Powell testified in front of Congress, reiterating his belief that the economy is steadily recovering and that inflation will be transitory.
  • He also stated that the Fed is expecting 2021 GDP to post the fastest year over year increase in decades.

Wednesday - June 23
  • It was another mixed session on Wall Street but the Nasdaq was able to notch another record closing high.
  • New home sales in May declined to 769,000, missing analyst expectations of 870,000, prompting analysts to wonder whether the housing recovery might be starting to peak.
  • Manufacturing PMI index came in high at 62.6 versus 61.4 expected.

Thursday - June 24
  • The broader market staged a powerful rally today with the big story being a bipartisan breakthrough on President Biden’s infrastructure bill which may create (Biden says) millions of jobs.
  • The bill also entails the largest investment in transportation in American history--from legacy transportation to electric infrastructure.
  • US GDP for Q1 came in at 4,3% as expected.
  • Durable goods orders in May dropped 2.3%, slightly below 2.7% expectations.
  • Jobless claims showed greater loss than expected, up 411k versus the anticipated figure of 380k.

Friday - June 25
  • A mixed end to the week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high.
  • A key reading on inflation--the PCE personal consumption and expenditure report--soared to its highest level in nearly three decades.
  • Yet the broader market largely shrugged off fears of rising prices as it bought the Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation remaining “transitory.”

Monday - June 28
  • It was another mixed day for the markets yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both able to score another day of record-closing highs. 
  • The tech sector was the biggest outperformer for today's session.
  • There were no major economic reports today.

Tuesday - June 29
  • The S&P 500 managed another record-high, now on a 5-month win streak.
  • Consumer confidence in June registered its highest reading--at 127.3--since the start of the pandemic.
  • The Case-Shiller home price index showed a month over month rise of 1.6%, hotter than the expected 1.2% increase.

Wednesday - June 30
  • All three US indexes churned near record highs as the market seems poised to close out a winning first half and second quarter of 2021.
  • Investors shrugged off high inflation readings, buying stocks on the hopes of economic recovery from the pandemic and the Fed’s easy monetary policies. 
  • The overall gains for the week are taking place amid a backdrop in which 60% of adults in the US have received a COVID-19 vaccine, allowing the economy to open back up at a rapid pace. 
  • However, new variants have raised some concerns about further mask restrictions amid slowing pace in vaccinations.
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*Details regarding DaGGoR Rider M1C NQ: Please be aware that the suggested capital to trade this system is $30,000. Please speak to your broker for more information about this trading system. The returns for the systems listed are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data.
 
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
 
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures, options and forex. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Margins are subject to change at anytime without notice. All material herein was compiled from sources considered reliable. However, there is no expressed or implied warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this material.