June Key Points
ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks
- Tropical Storm Claudette impacted all areas of the ACF, from heavy rainfall to severe weather
- Abnormally dry conditions rapidly improving across North Florida, the rest of the ACF remains drought free.
- Above normal rainfall over the ACF the past 30 and 90 days
- Troughing and sagging frontal boundary to continue bringing rainfall to the northern Gulf Coast, possibly persistent for week 2
- Neutral conditions in the Pacific, 50% chance of La Nina returning this fall
- CPC seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures, leans towards above normal rainfall
- NOAA hurricane forecast calls for 60% chance of above normal year, less active than record-setting 2020
- Rainy season has begun for all of Florida, hydrology of the ACF in good shape!
- State of Alabama - The AL Drought Declaration was updated on 5/11/21 to reflect improved conditions. No reported water availability issues. Alabama Drought Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) will meet on 7/13/2021 at 1pm (CT) via WebEx.
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts
- Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much above normal to much below range.
- The below normal 7-day average streamflow indicates that the ACF basin is hydrologically drought free.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal range.
- Real-time groundwater levels at well i.d. 08G001 and 11K003 are currently ranked normal and above normal range, respectively.
- No flooding expected in the next 10 days
- SERFC 1 month streamflow forecast - near normal (Claudette helped reverse decreasing trend in Flint and Apalachicola)
- SERFC 3 month streamflow forecast - near normal
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
- Inflows into the projects are normal with this past rain event.
- Currently, all projects except Buford are above top of conservation.
- Lake Lanier, West Point, and WF George are currently in Zone 1. Lake Lanier/Buford Dam is continuing to fill to top of conservation.
- Water management is prepared to go to flood surcharge operations if needed.
- The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
Apalachicola Bay Daily Average Salinity Levels
- Cat Point salinity values experienced a large increase mid-May and peaked on May 22. Value then decreased and are within the 25-75th percentile range as of June 9.
- Dry Bar salinity values fluctuated in May through the beginning of June. Values are within the 10-24th percentile range as of June 9.
- East Bay Bottom salinity values followed a similar pattern to Cat Point's with a large spike observed on May 22. Values have gradually decreased into June.
Special Presentation: The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) in the Southeast/ACF DEWS Region
Univ. of Colorado-Coop. Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO& NOAA-Physical Sciences Laboratory
>40-year downloadable archives of CONUS-wide EDDI:
Daily map and data access for SE DEWS region:
| Drought.gov | NIDIS DEWS pages | RISA and RCC climate dashboards