Four More Years?

November 1, 2023

Kentucky’s statewide elections are deep in the home stretch, and all eyes are focused on the top of the ticket. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is seeking his second-and-final four-year term, while Attorney General Daniel Cameron hopes to unseat the popular incumbent.

Further down ballot, five pairs of partisans are competing for the remaining statewide positions, with only one incumbent – Secretary of State Mike Adams – defending a seat.

Kentucky has rapidly turned red in recent years. Republican voter registration remains strong, and the GOP holds a statewide 75,000 registered voter advantage over the Democrats as of the close of voter registration for this cycle. Still, 10% of voters are registered as “Other,” and that is the fastest growing bloc in percentage terms. Democrats no doubt hope the 2019 race against then-Gov. Matt Bevin represents something of an electoral floor, while Republicans see it as an anomalous map in an otherwise reliably red state. 

Looking down the ballot, most pundits expect Republicans to sweep the races as they have in recent cycles. However, if Beshear has a strong showing on Tuesday the question remains will he have any coattails and to carry another Democrat to victory?

There is a single legislative contest also to be decided in this off-year cycle on November 7th – a special election to replace deceased Democratic House member Lamin Swann in a Lexington-area seat, who passed away in May, shortly after his first legislative session. 

Kentucky voters will have the opportunity to vote no-excuse, in-person absentee from Thursday through Saturday preceding the election, or on Election Tuesday. The aforementioned Secretary of State Mike Adams predicts turnout comparable to the 42% achieved in 2019.

Andy Beshear (D) v. Daniel Cameron (R)

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has remained the front-runner in nearly every poll released since the May primary, although his ability to achieve a foothold north of 50% has been fleeting. Polling has been inconsistent to say the least, with the most optimistic for the Governor showing him in command of a 16-point margin and Attorney General Cameron’s team seeing a much more manageable two-point deficit. 

Governor Beshear has drawn heavily on his experience leading the Commonwealth through a series of statewide and regional disasters, touted the billions of dollars in planned investments into the Commonwealth, and created a sharp contrast to Cameron on the issue of abortion as part of the campaign. The most discussed ad of the campaign featured a young woman from Western KY challenging Cameron on his support for a full abortion ban regardless of situations including rape or incest. The Beshear camp continues to associate Cameron with former Governor Matt Bevin, suggesting that the challenger’s support for private school “vouchers” and Medicaid work requirements align him with Bevin.

The Cameron campaign has largely relied on using social and criminal justice issues in an attempt to portray Beshear as misaligned with Kentucky voters. Whether directly through the Cameron campaign or via surrogates, the main Republican play has been to try to link Beshear to President Biden and liberal Democrats citing his veto of a trans bill and his COVID action that largely followed those in the rest of the country. While COVID-era restrictions were front-and-center during the GOP primary, the Cameron camp has emphasized longer-term effects such as learning loss in public education in his ads, rather than second-guessing the immediate response. Beshear’s recent acknowledgement that he would vote for President Joe Biden for a second-term was highlighted by the Cameron campaign as evidence that Beshear is out-of-touch with the Kentucky voter. 

Fundraising has heavily favored the incumbent Beshear with the Governor raising a record breaking $18 million to Cameron’s $5.3 million raised. Outside group participation from the likes of the DGA, RGA and 527’s make up some of the difference in ad dollars, with total expenditures on the Governor's race to well exceed $50 million.

Beshear is running again with current Lt. Gov Jacqueline Coleman. Coleman is a former educator and school administrator who previously ran for a state house seat. Cameron’s running mate is current State Senator Robbie Mills from Henderson in Western KY.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republican Russell Coleman, a former U.S. attorney and FBI agent, squares off against Democratic state Rep. Pamela Stevenson to become the state’s top law enforcement officer.

Coleman currently is a partner at the law firm Frost Brown Todd. He planned previously to run for attorney general, but instead accepted former President Donald Trump's nomination to serve as U.S. attorney for the Western District of Kentucky. He resigned that post when Trump was defeated. 

Stevenson currently serves in her second term in the state House, representing a downtown Louisville district. Previously, she served as a Colonel in the U.S. Air Force.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Republican incumbent Michael Adams, who earned kudos nationally for his handling of Kentucky’s elections during COVID, including working across the aisle with Governor Beshear, faces a challenge by former Democrat state Rep. Buddy Wheatley of Northern Kentucky.

Adams is seeking his second and final term as Secretary of State. Wheatley served two terms in the state House. He is a retired firefighter who served as Covington Fire Chief and is also a practicing attorney.

AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER

Former House Majority Floor Leader Jonathan Shell squares off against Democrat Sierra Enlow of Hodgenville for this open seat.

Shell, who is from Lancaster in Central Kentucky, was a three-term legislator who helped orchestrate Republicans’ historic takeover of the Kentucky House in 2017. His legislative career was derailed in 2018 when he lost, as Majority Floor Leader, in the GOP primary. He remained close to state politics, serving as chairman of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s 2020 re-election campaign and being affiliated with a Center-Right think tank. Enlow grew up on her family farm and has spent most of her career in various economic development roles.

AUDITOR

Current state Treasurer Allison Ball of Prestonsburg faces off against Democrat Kim Reeder.

Ball was term-limited as state Treasurer and opted to run for Auditor. Many pundits feel she has a bright future in GOP politics and this is a safe landing spot for her to continue building her resume. Reeder was raised in Morehead, but holds degrees from Yale, Duke, and the University of North Carolina. She was a tax attorney who later decided to go into teaching.

Current Auditor Mike Harmon was term-limited after serving eight years. He ran for Governor in the crowded GOP primary, finishing sixth.

TREASURER

Garrard County prosecutor Mark Metcalf goes head-to-head with Democrat Michael Bowman for this open seat.

Metcalf is a self-styled “Trump Republican” who has served as Garrard County’s local prosecuting attorney for the last 22 years. He has served decades in the Kentucky Army National Guard, and he previously ran for Congress in 1996 - losing in the primary to Ernie Fletcher by a mere 4 votes. This is Bowman’s second run for the office of Treasurer. He served as an aide to Louisville Metro Council democrats and in Gov. Beshear’s administration.

Current Treasurer Allison Ball was term-limited after eight years and opted to run for state Auditor.

Special Legislative Election- House District 93

Kyle Whalen, a Republican small business owner, will face well-positioned Democrat newcomer Adrielle Camuel, an administrative specialist for Lexington public schools, in the special election to replace Rep. Lamin Swann, who died unexpectedly earlier this year. Whalen ran for the seat and lost to Swann by eight percentage points in 2022. House District 93 includes the south side of Fayette County and is a newly formed House district. It is considered a Democratic stronghold, with President Joe Biden winning the area by about 17 points over former President Donald Trump.

There are no other legislative elections on the ballot in this off-year election.