It was 1984, and Tina Turner had just released her smash hit, “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” At this time, the U.S. was also exiting a period now known as The Great Inflation. During this period from the mid-60s to the early 80s, inflation peaked at more than 14% in 1980. The Vietnam War, increased government spending on social programs, and energy shortages all contributed to the Great Inflation. Now, fast forward 40 years to 2024, and we are exiting another period of high inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and is now down to 2.9% as of July 2024.
Equity markets are celebrating inflation being back down below 3%, but consumers still haven’t been able to find relief. This is in large part due to the fact that prices of essential items, such as those found in grocery stores, have increased by 20% over the last four years. So, what’s transportation got to do with this 20% increase? According to the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, truckload transportation rates have increased by 5.9% over the last four years and have decreased by 23% from their peak in May 2022. Since transportation doesn’t queue up Tina Turner’s hit song, we’ll need to look at other costs. For example, the average grocery store hourly wages over the last four years have increased by 26.5% from $16.98/hr to $21.48/hr. This outpaces the 19.4% wage increase of all employees during this time period.
Given this data, the current prices of grocery store items and other goods are here to stay. The positive in this data is that wage growth has kept up with these price increases, but like in any economy, workers in some sectors have seen higher increases than others. Inflation and grocery store prices have become major headlines as we near the November election. Both parties are making their case to the American people as to how their platform will better benefit the economy and stave off future inflationary periods. And if 1984 happens to be on the minds of party leaders, let’s hope they’re listening to Tina Turner and not reading George Orwell.
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