Campaigning for Democracy And Socialism
Key to Winning the Next Elections: Identities and Information
The cartoon here gives an accurate picture of the info-hoax paint bombs thrown at Justice Jackson. The deeper view is the disinformation snippets were not meant for her alone, but for voters over the next several years.

From Q-Anon pedophile fantasies to critical race theory and the 1619 project, they are all aimed at fear and resentment over social change. Many voters fear a shrinkage of undue status and the new array of the country's demographics. Rather than welcoming new allies for a better future, our GOP fascists will sow fear of 'new others' and idealize past identities that embodied class, racial, and gender hierarchies. From that perspective, Justice Jackson doesn't know 'her place' and all is fair in the war of divide and rule. They want to keep all of us down, not just her. Seek truth and vote them out.
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SAVE THE DATE!

Monday
April 18, 2022
2:00pm EDT

Carl Davidson at the
Center for Global Justice
Revitalizing Manufacturing with the Green New Deal

The Green New Deal had many champions. But what is needed is first, to create the means that will produce it and second to provide the 'just transition' that will merge trade unionists concerned about jobs with an environmental movement seeking zero-carbon burning.

This is proposed in a bill now before Congress, HR 5124, that aims to establish a Manufacturing Renaissance. Carl Davidson will explain the bill and the renovations in thinking and practice behind it. Manufacturing Renaissance Campaign is based in Chicago and aims to build thriving communities, companies and social institutions.

Davidson is a veteran activist, having played a central role in nearly every Left cause in the last half century. He was a leader of Students for a Democratic Society in the 1960s and is now edits LwfrLinks and runs the Online University of the Left.
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for full info and links to register

Three experts will look at what the Biden administration has done, hasn’t done, and still could do to implement transformative climate action towards a Green New Deal in the United States.

They will assess the state of play in Congress. And they will look at where the rubber hits the road in terms of federal funds for renew-able energy, job retraining, and green infrastructure reaching states and localities around the country.

Rebecca Leber covers climate change for Vox. Prior to Vox, she was an environmental reporter at Mother Jones, where her investigations exposed govern-ment corruption and fossil fuel industry disinformation. 

Rajiv Sicora is a Senior Policy Advisor for U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). He was the primary researcher for Naomi Klein’s book This Changes Everything and also was the senior manager of research at The Leap. 

Susie Strife directs and manages all of Boulder County’s sustainability efforts, policies and programs with a special focus on clean energy, finance, and climate action. She also teaches at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

The session will be moderated by Brett Fleishman, the head of global finance campaigns at 350.org.
Upcoming Webinar:

The Double Consciousness of Capital with author DAVID HARVEY


Sun, April 10
Time:
2 PM - 4 PM EDT

In “The Double Consciousness of Capital”. DAVID HARVEY turns to Marx’s Grundrisse and to W.E.B.Du Bois’ idea of double consciousness, to locate a tension in anti-capitalist politics.

Harvey explores the possibilities found in the creative destruction and technological revolutions of capitalism and the alienation and loss of human potentiality which is a result of the same process.

The path to socialism requires navigating the contradictions of this double consciousness.

In “Social Sources of Political Polarization in Russia”. ILYA MATVEEV and OLEG ZHURAVLEV offer a compelling account of rising urban-rural and core-periphery polarization in Russia under the authoritarian nationalism of Vladimir Putin.

Until recently Putin was able to rely on the apathetic indif-ference of the people and general appeals to social stability to maintain unchallenged power.

In “The Far Right, Corporate Power, and Social Struggles in Brazil”. VIRGINA FONTES, ANA GARCIA, and REJANE HOEVELER contrast the fictitious polarization in Brazil between electoral oppositions that quarrel over cultural issues without challenging the hegemony of neoliberal capitalism and the real polarization resulting from a combative working class that is developing, as Gramsci says, a spirit of cleavage, determined to pursue its class interests.

DAVID HARVEY is Distinguished Professor of anthropology and geography at the City University of New York. 

ILYA MATVEEV teaches politics at the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, St. Petersburg; 

OLEG ZHURAVLEV is a researcher at the Public Sociology Laboratory, Center for Independent Social Research, St. Petersburg. 

VIRGINIA FONTES is professor of history at Fluminense Federal University, Rio de Janeiro State, and a teacher at the Florestan Fernandes National School of the Landless Workers Movement; 

ANA GARCIA is assistant professor at the International Relations Institute of the Pontifical Catholic University and the graduate program in Social Sciences at the Federal Rural University, both in Rio de Janeiro; 

REJANE HOEVELER is a lecturer in the School of Social Service at Fluminense Federal University.

Socialist Register #58 is available for $28 including shipping via US Media Mail (this offer is only good for the US and Puerto Rico).

In Canada Socialist Register is available from Fernwood Books and in Europe from The Merlin Press.

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Latest News
Photo: Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on February 24, 2020, Wikimedia Commons

Watch: Senate Republicans Walk Out Of The Chamber As Ketanji Brown Jackson Confirmed As First Black Woman Justice

By David Badash 
The New Civil Rights Movement via Alternet

April 08, 2022 - It was a historic vote that will live forever in the history books: The Senate confirmed the first Black woman to become a U.S. Supreme Court justice. And it was a vote that too will go down in history. Not only for being by such an incredibly slim margin – 53 to 47 – but for how Senate Republicans treated the entire process.

Take Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), who purposely made the entire country – including the President and his nominee, watching from the Roosevelt Room in the White House – wait more than 16 minutes until he showed up to cast the final vote, a “no.” Sen. Paul wasn’t even dressed in a suit, he wore “casual attire” and had to vote from off the Senate floor, just one more on a pile of indignities he inflicted on what many experts have said is one of the most qualified people ever to be nominated to the Supreme Court.

Rand Paul wasn’t the only Republican to treat Judge Jackson with disdain. Senators Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn, Mike Lee, Tom Cotton and Marsha Blackburn – among others – all but accused her of being soft on pedophiles.

After Sen. Paul cast the final vote – Democrats let the clock run as they waited for him to show up – the chamber erupted in celebration. At least Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who voted for Jackson, stood and applauded.

Within seconds, Senate Republicans got up and walked out. No effort to congratulate the Democrats, no effort to acknowledge the historic nature of the proceedings, they just stood up, and skulked out.


The clip below has nearly one million views in just two and a half hours. ...Read More
'Ukraine Is Impossible As A Nation-State': Russian
Propaganda Outlet Encourages Full-Scale Genocide
Pro-Putin Map Graphic: "The Ukrainian people do not want a Russian intervention" - There is no "Ukrainian people". There are the fascists in the west and the Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Novorossia. The fascists are very afraid of an intervention, knowing all the crimes they comitted will be exposed, but Novorossia is longing for its freedom! Russia should not go to the western parts, just liberate Novorossia, Malorossia and Transniestria too.
 
By Brandon Gage 
Alternet.com

April 07, 2022 - A Russian state propaganda outlet earlier this week called for full-scale genocide against Ukraine as the country's armed forces face allegations of war crimes.

The extraordinary article, published in RIA Novosti on Tuesday by correspondent Timofey Sergeytsev, repeatedly stated that Russia's efforts to "denazify" Ukraine require the "liquidation" of any and all persons whom the Kremlin suspects of being active or undercover operatives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin frequently claims that the democratically-elected Ukrainian government – led by Jewish President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – is actually a clandestine cabal of Nazis hellbent on murdering ethnic Russians.

Sergeytstev promoted this demonstrably false and dangerous lie in his piece and rationalized the indiscriminate slaughter of Ukrainian combat units and citizens alike. The world has bore witness to these Russian-inflicted atrocities in cities such as the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, its suburb of Bucha, and the port metropolis of Mariupol.

  • "Denazification is a set of measures in relation to the Nazified mass of the population, which technically cannot be subjected to direct punishment as war criminals," he wrote. "The Nazis who took up arms should be destroyed to the maximum on the battlefield. No significant distinction should be made between APU and the so-called national battalions, as well as the territorial defense that joined these two types of military formations. All of them are equally involved in extreme cruelty against the civilian population, equally guilty of the genocide of the Russian people, do not comply with the laws and customs of war. War criminals and active Nazis should be exemplarily and exponentially punished."

That passage alone has undertones that mirror Adolf Hitler's Germany. But Sergeytstev was nowhere near finished, adding that "there must be a total lustration" and mass "re-education" of whatever percentage of the population that Moscow decides to spare.

Continuing on, the author accused "Western Banderas" – a reference to Ukrainian Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera in World War II – of being the architects of Naziism in Ukraine. Based on this false premise, Sergeytstev declared that Ukraine – both in name and function – should be wiped off the map forever.

"Ukraine, as history has shown, is impossible as a nation-state, and attempts to 'build' one naturally lead to Nazism. Ukrainism is an artificial anti-Russian construction that does not have its own civilizational content, a subordinate element of an alien and alien civilization," he said. "Debanderization by itself will not be enough for denazification - the Bandera element is only a performer and a screen, a disguise for the European project of Nazi Ukraine, therefore the denazification of Ukraine is also its inevitable de-Europeanization."

He then laid out a 10-point plan for how Russia can achieve its objectives:

The operation to denazify Ukraine, which began with a military phase, will follow the same logic of stages in peacetime as a military operation. At each of them, it will be necessary to achieve irreversible changes, which will become the results of the corresponding stage. In this case, the necessary initial steps of denazification can be defined as follows:

—liquidation of armed Nazi formations (which means any armed formations of Ukraine, including the Armed Forces of Ukraine), as well as the military, informational, educational infrastructure that ensures their activity;
—the formation of public self-government bodies and militia (defense and law enforcement) of the liberated territories, protecting the population from the terror of underground Nazi groups;
—installation of the Russian information space;
—the withdrawal of educational materials and the prohibition of educational programs at all levels containing Nazi ideological guidelines;
—mass investigative actions to establish personal responsibility for war crimes, crimes against humanity, the spread of Nazi ideology and support for the Nazi regime;
—lustration, publication of the names of accomplices of the Nazi regime, involving them in forced labor to restore the destroyed infrastructure as punishment for Nazi activities (from among those who will not be subject to the death penalty or imprisonment);
—the adoption at the local level, under the supervision of Russia, of primary normative acts of denazification "from below", a ban on all types and forms of the revival of Nazi ideology;
—the establishment of memorials, commemorative signs, monuments to the victims of Ukrainian Nazism, perpetuating the memory of the heroes of the struggle against it;
—the inclusion of a complex of anti-fascist and denazification norms in the constitutions of the new people's republics;
—creation of permanent denazification bodies for a period of 25 years.

Sergeytstev's essay did not end there, however.

  • "Russia will have no allies in the denazification of Ukraine," he explained. "Since this is a purely Russian business. And also because not just the Bandera version of Nazi Ukraine will be eradicated, but also, and above all, Western totalitarianism, the imposed programs of civilizational degradation and disintegration, the mechanisms of subjugation to the superpower of the West and the United States."

Sergeytstev claimed that the West, particularly the United States, is ungrateful for "everything that Russia has done" for it. That grievance stems from the enormous losses that the former Soviet Union incurred – estimates ranging from 24-40 million – throughout the Second World War.

"Russia did everything possible to save the West in the 20th century. She implemented the main Western project, an alternative to capitalism, which won the nation-states - the socialist, red project. It crushed German Nazism, the monstrous offspring of the crisis of Western civilization," Sergeytstev said, conveniently omitting the fact that millions of Soviet citizens – Ukrainians among them – perished under the terrorizing reign of dictator Josef Stalin.

"The last act of Russian altruism was the outstretched hand of friendship from Russia, for which Russia received a monstrous blow in the 1990s," he added, alluding to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Sergeytstev concluded his dissertation by proclaiming that regardless of what happens in Ukraine, Russia "will go its own way, not worrying about the fate of the West, relying on another part of its heritage - leadership in the global process of decolonization." ...Read More
Digging Deeper into the Current Conjuncture:
Understanding 'The Correlation of Forces'

Why Russia Fumbled in Ukraine, China Lost Its Way, and America Should Exercise Restraint

By Michael Klare
Tom Dispatch

April 3, 3033 - In Western military circles, it’s common to refer to the “balance of forces” — the lineup of tanks, planes, ships, missiles, and battle formations on the opposing sides of any conflict. If one has twice as many combat assets as its opponent and the leadership abilities on each side are approximately equal, it should win.

Based on this reasoning, most Western analysts assumed that the Russian army — with a seemingly overwhelming advantage in numbers and equipment — would quickly overpower Ukrainian forces.

Of course, things haven’t exactly turned out that way. The Ukrainian military has, in fact, fought the Russians to a near-standstill. The reasons for that will undoubtedly be debated among military theorists for years to come. When they do so, they might begin with Moscow’s surprising failure to pay attention to a different military equation — the “correlation of forces” — originally developed in the former Soviet Union.

That notion differs from the “balance of forces” by placing greater weight on intangible factors. It stipulates that the weaker of two belligerents, measured in conventional terms, can still prevail over the stronger if its military possesses higher morale, stronger support at home, and the backing of important allies. Such a calculation, if conducted in early February, would have concluded that Ukraine’s prospects were nowhere near as bad as either Russian or Western analysts generally assumed, while Russia’s were far worse. And that should remind us of just how crucial an understanding of the correlation of forces is in such situations if gross miscalculations and tragedies are to be avoided.

The Concept in Practice
Before Ukraine

The notion of the correlation of forces has a long history in military and strategic thinking. Something like it, for example, can be found in the epilogue to Leo Tolstoy’s epic novel, War and Peace. Writing about Napoleon’s disastrous invasion of Russia in 1812, Tolstoy observed that wars are won not by the superior generalship of charismatic leaders but through the fighting spirit of common soldiers taking up arms against a loathsome enemy.

Such a perspective would later be incorporated into the military doctrine of the Russian Bolsheviks, who sought to calculate not only troop and equipment strength, but also the degree of class consciousness and support from the masses on each side of any potential conflict.

Following the 1917 revolution in the midst of World War I, Russian leader Vladimir Lenin argued, for example, against a continuing war with Germany because the correlation of forces wasn’t yet right for the waging of “revolutionary war” against the capitalist states (as urged by his compatriot Leon Trotsky). “Summing up the arguments in favor of an immediate revolutionary war,” Lenin said, “it must be concluded that such a policy would perhaps respond to the needs of mankind to strive for the beautiful, the spectacular, and the striking, but that it would be totally disregarding the objective correlation of class forces and material factors at the present stage of the socialist revolution already begun.”

For Bolsheviks of his era, the correlation of forces was a “scientific” concept, based on an assessment of both material factors (numbers of troops and guns on each side) and qualitative factors (the degree of class consciousness involved).

In 1918, for example, Lenin observed that “the poor peasantry in Russia… is not in a position immediately and at the present moment to begin a serious revolutionary war. To ignore this objective correlation of class forces on the present question would be a fatal blunder.” Hence, in March 1918, the Russians made a separate peace with the German-led Central Powers, ceding much territory to them and ending their country’s role in the world war.

As the Bolshevik Party became an institutionalized dictatorship under Joseph Stalin, the correlation-of-forces concept grew into an article of faith based on a belief in the ultimate victory of socialism over capitalism. During the Khrushchev and Brezhnev eras of the 1960s and 1970s, Soviet leaders regularly claimed that world capitalism was in irreversible decline and the socialist camp, augmented by revolutionary regimes in the “Third World,” was destined to achieve global supremacy.

Such optimism prevailed until the late 1970s, when the socialist tide in the Third World began to recede. Most significant in this regard was a revolt against the communist government in Afghanistan. When the Soviet-backed People’s Democratic Party in Kabul came under attack by Islamic insurgents or mujahideen, Soviet forces invaded and occupied the country. Despite sending ever-larger troop contingents there and employing heavy firepower against the mujahideen and their local supporters, the Red Army was finally forced to limp home in defeat in 1989, only to see the Soviet Union itself implode not long after.

For U.S. strategists, the Soviet decision to intervene and, despite endless losses, persevere was proof that the Russian leaders had ignored the correlation of forces, a vulnerability to be exploited by Washington. In the 1980s, under President Ronald Reagan, it became U.S. policy to arm and assist anticommunist insurgents globally with the aim of toppling pro-Soviet regimes — a strategy sometimes called the Reagan Doctrine. Huge quantities of munitions were given to the mujahideen and rebels like the Contras in Nicaragua, usually via secret channels set up by the Central Intelligence Agency.

While not always successful, these efforts generally bedeviled the Soviet leadership. As Secretary of State George Shultz wrote gleefully in 1985, while the U.S. defeat in Vietnam had led the Soviets to believe “that what they called the global ‘correlation of forces’ was shifting in their favor,” now, thanks to U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and elsewhere, “we have reason to be confident that ‘the correlation of forces’ is shifting back in our favor.”

And yes, the Soviet failure in Afghanistan did indeed reflect an inability to properly weigh the correlation of all the factors involved — the degree to which the mujahideen’s morale outmatched that of the Soviets, the relative support for war among the Soviet and Afghan populations, and the role of outside help provided by the CIA.

But the lessons hardly ended there. Washington never considered the implications of arming Arab volunteers under the command of Osama bin Laden or allowing him to create an international jihadist enterprise, “the base” (al-Qaeda), which later turned on the U.S., leading to the 9/11 terror attacks and a disastrous 20-year “global war on terror” that consumed trillions of dollars and debilitated the U.S. military without eliminating the threat of terrorism. American leaders also failed to calculate the correlation of forces when undertaking their own war in Afghanistan, ignoring the factors that led to the Soviet defeat, and so suffering the very same fate 32 years later.

Putin’s Ukraine Miscalculations

Much has already been said about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s miscalculations regarding Ukraine. They all began, however, with his failure to properly assess the correlation of forces involved in the conflict to come and that, eerily enough, resulted from Putin’s misreading of the meaning of the U.S. exit from Afghanistan.

Like many in Washington — especially in the neoconservative wing of the Republican Party — Putin and his close advisers viewed the sudden American withdrawal as a conspicuous sign of U.S. weakness and, in particular, of disarray within the Western alliance. American power was in full retreat, they believed, and the NATO powers irrevocably divided. “Today, we are witnessing the collapse of America’s foreign policy,” said Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Russian State Duma. Other senior officials echoed his view.

This left Putin and his inner circle convinced that Russia could act with relative impunity in Ukraine, a radical misreading of the global situation. In fact, along with top U.S. military leaders, the Biden White House was eager to exit Afghanistan. They wanted to focus instead on what were seen as far more important priorities, especially the reinvigoration of U.S. alliances in Asia and Europe to better contain China and Russia.

“The United States should not, and will not, engage in ‘forever wars’ that have cost thousands of lives and trillions of dollars,” the administration affirmed in its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance of May 2021. Instead, the U.S. would position itself “to deter our adversaries and defend our interests… [and] our presence will be most robust in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.” ...Read More
Photo: Protesters against Russian aggression chant and wave Ukrainian and Turkish flags in Istanbul. | Hakan Akgun/Sipa USA via AP

Putin Is the Only Leader They’ve Known. And They’re Done With Him.

Letter from Turkey: Thousands of young, anti-war Russians are voting with their feet, fleeing to cities like Istanbul. Putin has labeled them a 'fifth column.'

By Uliana Pavlova
Politico

April 7, 2022 - ISTANBUL — At a hostel down a cobblestoned street not far from Istanbul’s fabled mosques and cathedrals, a young Russian restaurant worker named Misha was smoking cigarettes on the balcony.

Misha quit his job on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, swiftly packed his bags and left Moscow without a clue when he will be back. Only 24, for the last few weeks he has shared a $10-a-night bunk room with three other guys. He estimates his money will last about a month.

“I decided without a second thought — That’s it,” he told me. “I thought, ‘I am 24 years old, I have arms, legs, I am not dumb, well, I probably won’t perish.’”

Misha isn’t a jet-setter; in fact, this is his first trip outside of Russia. When I asked him what surprised him most about life outside Russia, he said: “I don’t feel scared when I pass by police officers, even if they are holding guns. I just feel safe.”

Misha, 24, stands outside the hostel in Istanbul where a lot of exiled Russians are staying. | Uliana Pavlova

Misha told me that he had lost faith in his homeland. Only a toddler when Vladimir Putin became president, his entire life has been lived in the Russia that Putin built during his 22 years in power. Last year, Misha went to rallies in support of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who has been jailed after leading a pro-democracy movement that brought to light massive corruption by Putin and his circle. In recent months, the Russian government has intensified its crackdown on opposition and independent media.

“Even before this war started, I went to Navalny rallies and various other opposition events and saw that the effect from this was zero! No matter how hard we try, the government keeps screwing the bolts tighter and tighter,” Misha said.

In response to the war in Ukraine, at least some of the young Russians who grew up in Putin’s Russia are fleeing. With opposition to the war in Russia effectively criminalized, some are actual refugees, fleeing Putin’s crackdown on opponents and media. Some are intellectual exiles who no longer want to live in a country that invades a neighbor or supports a despot.

Tens of thousands have landed in Istanbul, because Russian flights can reach Turkey without crossing into European airspace and Russians don’t need Turkish visas to visit.

As a result, you can now hear Russian on the streets and on lines that form in front of ATMs — with Russian credit cards disabled, Russian refugees are living on any cash they can withdraw from ATMs. Inside coffee shops, you can overhear Russians exchanging tips on cheap places to stay, how to open a bank account or the best places to exchange currency.

Under Turkish law, they can only stay for 90 days. What will happen to them next is a topic in the cafes, bars and hostel lobbies where they also gather to discuss the political developments in their homeland. Most still have friends and families who are left in Russia.

People walk past Moscow's first McDonalds a day before its opening in Pushkin Square on Jan. 30, 1990. Two months after the Berlin Wall fell, McDonald’s opened its doors in the middle of Moscow. It was the first American fast food restaurant to enter the Soviet Union. But now, McDonald's is temporarily closing its 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the Ukraine invasion. | Vicktor Yurchenko/AP Photo

Putin’s generation grew up in the post-Soviet era of exhilarating upheaval. They ate at McDonald’s, read Harry Potter and danced to Rihanna. Unlike their parents, they don’t know what it is like to live behind an Iron Curtain and they don’t wish to find out.

And Putin doesn’t want them, either, dubbing self-exiled Russians a “fifth column” that is working to undermine their homeland. In a televised address, Putin condemned Russians with a Western mentality as “national traitors” who cannot live without “oysters and gender freedom.”

I’m part of this generation, too. I’m a freelance journalist and landed in Istanbul when it became clear that my reporting could put me at risk if I stayed in Russia.

I didn’t expect I’d have so much company.

During my first week in Istanbul, I find myself sitting next to a couple from Saint Petersburg in a small coffee shop. I ask if I can interview them, and they agree.

Nastya Mez, 26, and Igor Timofeenko, 28, are both from the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don just an hour away from the border with Ukraine; their families speak with a southern accent that can sound like a mixture of a Ukrainian and Russian pronunciation. For the last few years, they have lived in Saint Petersburg, the second-largest city in Russia.

“My father stopped speaking to me after we moved to Turkey. He thinks I am part of the fifth column,” Igor tells me. He notes that his surname ends in “enko” which is a common Ukrainian ending. “He has been brainwashed with TV and thinks that Ukrainians are Nazis, despite our last name being Timofeenko.” Igor laughs bitterly.

Anastasia Mez and Igor Timofeenko sit together in Istanbul. | Ilia Gazizov

I hear similar stories from other young Russians I meet. When Misha told his father that he ran from Russia to Turkey, he was met with radio silence. His father hasn’t spoken to him since.

“He has not been interested in anything all his life. He sits in a room all day and watches TV,” Misha says, including one of Putin’s most influential propagandists, Vladimir Solovyov.

“I tell him: ‘Dad, let me watch Solovyov for an hour with you, and you, in turn, watch Navalny’s YouTube investigation with me for 10-15 minutes.’ And he says that this is evil, that the Internet is evil,” Misha tells me.

When his mother asks him to fix something on her phone, Misha subscribes her to Navalny’s Telegram channel and the one operated by his organization.

For both Igor and Misha, economic concerns also played a role in their decision to flee. They fear what will happen to Russia as its economy is battered by unprecedented sanctions and on the verge of the first major default since 1998.

“We grew up in the well-fed 2000s. We still remember the time when everybody was getting rich, when the average [monthly] salary in cities with a population of a million-plus was around $1,000. Now it’s hard to even imagine this,” Igor said.

Now in Russia, prices are spiking, the ruble has lost value and stores are running out of basic necessities like sugar and feminine hygiene products.


“Sadly, Western sanctions are also affecting those who oppose Putin and don’t want to stay in Russia and pay taxes to support the regime,” Nastya said.

When I ask them if they have encountered any instances of Russophobia while abroad Nastya has a sharp reply: “Nowhere are Russians treated as badly as in Russia.”

As Putin seems to have feared, Russia’s young exiles are continuing their anti-war protesting from abroad. On the third week of the war, Russians gathered outside one of Istanbul’s nightclubs for the first in a series of charity concerts by Russian cult rapper Oxxxymiron called “Russian Against War.’’ All revenues from the concert were promised to go to a Polish independent NGO helping Ukrainian refugees.

Oxxxymiron, also known as Miron Fyodorov, has enchanted Russian-speaking popular culture with his clever lyrics that sometimes sound like political manifestos. His Jewish family fled Soviet Russia in the 1980s, and he spent half his childhood in the West. After graduating from Oxford, he returned to Russia as an adult and his rap battles gathered million of views on YouTube.

Oxxxymiron, a Russian rapper, performs in Istanbul on March 15. The rapper said proceeds from his show would go to help Ukrainian refugees. Russians at the concert denounced the war but said they felt helpless to stop it.

Most in the crowd are under 30, stylish, urban, middle-class Russians. Some even brought anti-war posters. During the performance, the newly-minted emigres chanted: “No to War,” “Glory to Ukraine” and “Putin Huylo” — an anti-Putin obscenity.

This is exactly the demographic that Putin resents. The feelings are mutual.
Uliana Pavlova is a freelance journalist formerly based in Moscow. ...Read More
PHOTO BY KYLE GRILLOT /AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The GOP Is Going Full QAnon

Democrats should prepare for accusations of being soft on pedophilia (or worse) in the midterm elections.

The New Republic

April 8, 2022 - Shortly after it became clear that Ketanji Brown Jackson would be confirmed to the Supreme Court with at least three Republican votes—Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, and Lisa Murkowski—the senators’ House colleague Marjorie Taylor Greene took to the one unsuspended Twitter account she has left to call them not just soft on pedophilia but actively in favor of it. 

Greene, who embraced QAnon as a congressional candidate and who has pushed all manner of deranged conspiracy theories—including one that a Jewish “space laser” was responsible for devastating 2018 California wildfires—is typically presented as someone far outside the GOP mainstream: a wacko and a kook, nothing like her more sober-minded and responsible colleagues in either chamber of Congress. And yet, in this—and many—instances, Taylor Greene is very much a normal Republican. Here, while she was being coarser and less subtle than several of her colleagues, she was channeling the smear that dominated Ketanji Brown Jackson’s confirmation hearings: that Jackson is not only sympathetic to child molesters—an attack based on a mischaracterization of a sentence she handed down nearly 10 years ago—but that she was selected by her party because of that (fabricated) view. 

In seven months, when the midterm elections are held, we may see these hearings as a turning point. For much of the last two years, QAnon—a conspiracy theory that alleges, among other insane things, that Democratic elites run a vast child sex trafficking ring—was deemed so insane, as New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait argued Tuesday, that even Donald Trump kept his distance from it. Now, however, it is spreading through the Republican mainstream. By the midterm elections, it may very well form a troika in Republican attack ads: Democrats aren’t doing enough on inflation, they’re soft on crime, and, oh yeah, they’re also pro-pedophile. Not since George McGovern’s foes slandered him as the candidate of “Acid, Amnesty, and Abortion” has our politics seen as vicious and baseless a charge.

The Q-inspired pedophile smear is consuming Republican politics. “The phrase ‘child porn’ (or ‘pornography’ or ‘pornographer’)” was mentioned 165 times during Brown’s confirmation hearings, The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank tallied. “I’m not suggesting she likes what’s happening in child pornography,” Senator Lindsey Graham said Monday. But “she ha[d] a chance to impose a sentence that would deter [child pornography], and she chose not to.” Senator Josh Hawley, meanwhile, referenced QAnon in his own remarks. “Judge Jackson’s view is that we should treat everyone more leniently because more and more people are committing worse and worse child sex offenses,” he said, while also stating that “we’ve been told things like child pornography is actually all a conspiracy, it’s not real.” The lunatics who follow QAnon may just be onto something, in other words: The truth is out there. 

Recent polling offers one clue for why Republicans are eager to smear Democrats as pedophiles (or, at the very least, as being soft on such assault). Nearly half of Republicans (49 percent) and 52 percent of Trump voters believe that Democrats run child sex-trafficking rings, per YouGov polling conducted during Jackson’s confirmation hearings. Even though only 18 percent of Republicans had a positive view of QAnon (compared to 16 percent of all respondents), 30 percent of all respondents believed that “top Democrats are involved in elite child sex-trafficking rings,” suggesting the wide reach of the conspiracy theory.  

It’s not just Jackson’s hearings. Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” law, which prevents educators from discussing gender and sexuality with their students, was similarly conceived out of an inflated panic about protecting children from vicious predators. The spokesperson for Ron DeSantis, the state’s governor, has said that anyone opposing it is “probably a groomer,” while DeSantis himself has gone to war with Disney over its belated opposition to the bill. That law has spurred copycats in other states.

The cynicism of these attacks is profound, especially when you consider Republican support for figures like Roy Moore, an Alabama judge and GOP senate nominee who was accused of dating teenage girls while in his thirties, and Dennis Hastert, a former speaker of the House who was convicted of molesting several teenagers when he was a high school wrestling coach. Republicans have concocted a smear out of thin air, alleging that they are the only thing stopping the country from being seized by child sex predators.

The most debauched version of this attack may not work. And yet polling suggests that, by virtue of this lie being repeated enough, it has taken hold amongst a sizable portion of the electorate—and a near majority of Republican voters. Regardless, panics about education and the safety of minors—particularly ones that also touch on concerns about rising crime—have also been effective in some instances. “?Some version of it can work: Look at how Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin rode gender panic and [critical race theory] paranoia as well as parental fatigue with Covid restrictions to victory last November,” The Nation’s Joan Walsh wrote Wednesday.

Republicans certainly will be talking about this entirely invented issue come November. Their base, tweaking on unhinged internet conspiracy theories, demands it. But the party’s legislators are not much less deranged themselves. Their own positions in both economic and foreign policy are deeply unpopular. So they concoct increasingly psychotic attacks. 

Judge Jackson was confirmed on Wednesday in spite of those attacks. Democrats across the country will be facing them soon. ...Read More
Why Should Progressives Embrace a 21st Century
Economic Bill of Rights? Because They Already Do

Progressives need to make clear to the American people that they have a cohesive economic program for the country—one that the American People want. Here's a 10-point program that sums it up.
Photo: Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.) rallies with restaurant workers and owners outside the U.S. Capitol on February 8, 2022 in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

By Alan Minsky, Harvey J. Kaye, and Michael Brennan
Common Dreams

April 6, 2022 - The media has failed to recognize the significance of progressive elected officials' legislative proposals. Looking to redeem the nation's promise of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, progressives have advanced bills in Congress that would cultivate a new economic social contract for America. With the Democratic party facing potentially devastating losses in 2022 and 2024—and the majority of Americans yearning for progressive transformations—we need to make our political aspirations and projected initiatives powerfully clear.

Polls consistently show, the majority of Americans across the country want to see Congress turn the central features of the progressive economic agenda into laws, policies, and programs.

We recently issued a call for all progressive candidates and officeholders to embrace a 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights. We now make the case that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party essentially has already done so. Indeed, herein we show how legislation introduced by Democratic progressives in the current Congress clearly matches up with the roster of economic rights we have proposed.  

This is a critically essential point to make at this very moment. Many excellent progressive candidates are challenging centrist/neoliberal/corporate Democrats across the country in a primary season that kicks into full gear over the next month. Like their allies in Congress, these progressive candidates support policies that add up to our envisioned 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights—and as polls consistently show, the majority of Americans across the country want to see Congress turn the central features of the progressive economic agenda into laws, policies, and programs.

Unfortunately, the public is largely unaware that progressives prioritize this economic program. The powerful right-wing media/propaganda machine persistently portrays progressives as primarily focused on "fighting the culture wars"—something that both Republicans and economically-conservative Democrats, such as Bill Maher, are all too happy to amplify.  

However, when you look at the actual legislative record, it becomes crystal clear that improving the economic conditions for poor, working, and middle-class Americans is a top priority for progressives. This is evident not only from the wide range of bills introduced by progressives in this Congress (see the list below), but also from the protracted negotiations over Build Back Better, during which progressives fought tirelessly for the economic interests of average Americans.  

It is no mystery why the GOP and neo-liberal Democrats work overtime to misrepresent progressives as "cancel-culture" extremists. It polls terribly; and, in the hands of the corporate media, serves to alienate working-class communities from each other (the good old-fashioned divide and conquer strategy). Just as importantly, these misrepresentations hide the fact that only progressives have an economic agenda that articulates the interests and aspirations of the vast majority of the American people. It is incumbent upon progressives to set the record straight.  

So, here is our 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights, followed by the legislation recently introduced by progressives in the 117th Congress that addresses each of the ten rights.

1. The right to a useful job that pays a living wage.

Rep. Ayanna Pressley's resolution for a federal job guarantee brought back into focus the historic demand for the right to employment with a clear statement of vision and principles. Pressley explicitly draws on "the legacy and work of generations of Black women in the Civil Rights Movement" such as Coretta Scott King to affirm the role of the federal job guarantee in achieving true full employment, no longer allowing businesses to rely on the "reserve army of labor" to discipline workers across the economy.

This legislation is of special importance to us. A universal job guarantee, backed up by the federal government serving as an employer of last resort, promising jobs at a living wage (and the same health care coverage as all Federal workers), is a perfect anchor for a 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights.  

2. The right to a voice in the workplace through a union and collective bargaining.

Rep. Bobby Scott's Protect the Right to Organize (PRO) Act would be the most important pro-worker labor law reform since the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) of 1935. It would end so-called "right-to-work" laws, legalize secondary strikes, modernize union elections, provide independent contractors the right to collectively bargain, and create meaningful penalties for employers who violate their workers' rights. 

3. The right to comprehensive quality health care.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal's Medicare for All Act currently has 121 House co-sponsors, a majority of the House Democratic caucus. Medicare for All was the flagship policy of Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2016 and 2020 presidential runs and remains the gold standard policy approach for guaranteeing the right to health care, free at the point of service, for all citizens and residents of the USA. 

Further, the Build Back Better Act's Universal Paid Family and Medical Leave provision, championed and defended by progressives, would have guaranteed "12 weeks of paid family and medical leave annually to all workers in the US." A pared down version of this provision was passed by the House, is supported by President Biden, but languishes in the Senate due to opposition from anti-progressive Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema to the entire Build Back Better reconciliation package.

4. The right to a complete cost-free public education and access to broadband internet.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal's College for All Act would eliminate tuition and fees at public colleges and universities for families making up to $125,000 and make community college free for all. (The authors would propose going a step further, echoing Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, by guaranteeing a college education as a legal right for all, like public K-12 education, rather than means-testing it and unnecessarily creating a wealthy counter-constituency.)

Rep. Jamaal Bowman's Green New Deal for Public Schools Act would make unprecedented investments in U.S. public schools to decarbonize the facilities, expand staffing and social service programming, and transform public education toward a "whole child" approach. The visionary legislation makes clear how guaranteeing the economic right to a meaningful public education is part and parcel for also reaching the U.S.'s climate goals.

Rep. James Clyburn's Accessible, Affordable Internet for All Act addresses the "digital divide" by making historic investments in deploying high-speed broadband infrastructure. (The authors believe we should go further: that this public infrastructure should deliver free internet access at the point of service rather than unnecessarily creating a cost barrier.)

5. The right to decent, safe, affordable housing.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal for Public Housing Act would contribute to the vision of a right to housing by modernizing the U.S.'s public housing stock and repealing the Faircloth amendment, which arbitrarily caps the amount of public housing allowed (this repeal is also a part of the currently proposed Build Back Better Act). 

In the last Congress, Rep. Ilhan Omar introduced the Homes for All Act, which would fund the construction of 9.5 million public housing units and 2.5 million private market affordable housing units over 10 years. 

6. The right to a clean environment and a healthy planet.

Now we come to one of the most important set of bills because much of the progressive economic program is being presented in Congress under the heading of a Green New Deal.  

Why is this? American society—our modern, industrialized, technological society—has been designed around fossil fuel use, which is the root cause of the unfolding climate catastrophe. Therefore, we need to remake, reconfigure, or retrofit just about everything—and that means jobs, and it requires economic policy. The Green New Deal proposals address this historical necessity in a way that perfectly fits with our 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights.  

Unfortunately, the right-wing and the fossil fuel industry's propaganda machinery has been working overtime attacking the Green New Deal, such that much of the public only hears the "Green" environmental component of the programs and have become deaf to their "New Deal" economic focus. Once again, it is incumbent upon progressives to foreground how the Green New Deal programs also represent a new economic social contract for Americans, one that is very popular.

Currently, the Green New Deal Pledge asks candidates to endorse ten bills. The two mentioned above by Reps. Bowman and Ocasio-Cortez, respectively. There are also the following six bills, which directly address economic policies:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal Resolution
Rep. Cori Bush's Green New Deal for Cities Act
Rep. Andy Levin's BUILD GREEN Infrastructure and Jobs Act 
Rep. Ro Khanna's Farm System Reform Act 
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Civilian Climate Corps for Jobs and Justice Act 
Rep. Raul Grijalva's Environmental Justice for All Act
The final two bills included in the Green New Deal Pledge Rep. Ilhan Omar's End Polluter Welfare Act and Rep. Jared Huffman's Keep it in the Ground Act are also relevant as they would end the outrageous annual subsidies provided by the Federal government to fossil fuel companies, money that can help fund our environmental and economic agenda. Similarly, Rep. Earl Blumenauer's excellent Climate Emergency Bill frees up funding for disaster mitigation and response, and support for frontline communities.  

Lastly, Rep. Jan Schakowsky's Manufacturing Reinvestment Corporation Act calls for the inclusion of climate and environmental justice advocates on regional boards tasked with expanding American manufacturing capacity as we transition off of fossil fuels and onto renewable energy.

7. The right to a meaningful endowment of resources at birth, and a secure retirement.

Rep. Ayanna Pressley's American Opportunity Accounts Act, or the "baby bonds" proposal popularized by economists William Darity and Darrick Hamilton, which is widely considered one of the most effective policies toward addressing the racial wealth gap. This would provide every child with a $1,000 savings accounts upon birth and the federal government would thereafter deposit up to $2,000 annually, depending on the child's household income, until they gain access at 18.  

Similarly, progressives strongly supported the $300 or $250 monthly "tax credits" paid directly to households with children, which was part of the 2021 Relief Act—and progressives strongly opposed the ending of these payments in early 2022.

Since the Social Security system is one of the few still existing realizations of President Franklin Roosevelt's initial Economic Bill of Rights, the concern today is to ensure that right remains meaningfully guaranteed and expanded. Rep. John Larson's legislation, Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust, would significantly improve the Social Security system for beneficiaries and help resolve the arbitrary insolvency crisis currently foisted onto the system.  

8. The right to sound banking and financial services.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's Postal Banking Act would grant post offices the power to provide basic retail banking services to the public. As the only federal institution with local branches in every zip code across the country, the U. S. Postal Service is uniquely positioned to administer this economic right and end the "two-tiered" system of payday loans, check-cashing businesses, and pawnshops.  

Rep. Lynch's recent Electronic Currency and Secure Hardware (ECASH) Act would develop an electronic version of the U.S. Dollar for use by the public. By creating a form of digital cash designed to preserve the anonymity and token-like qualities of physical cash, this legislation is a key component of ensuring the future of the financial system protects currency users from surveillance while furthering the goal of financial inclusion. 

Rep. Rashida Tlaib's's Public Banking Act would provide the federal regulatory and capital support for proliferating the development of publicly-owned banks across the U.S. By having a meaningful public banking sector mandated for public purpose rather than profit, every American will be able to fairly utilize non-extractive commercial banking services.  

9. The right to an equitable and economically fair justice system

Rep. Ayanna Pressley's resolution calling for a People's Justice Guarantee re-envisions the criminal legal system toward justice for all. It specifically calls for prioritizing decarceration and dramatically reducing jail and prison populations, eliminating wealth-based discrimination and corporate profiteering, transforming the experience of confinement, and investing in historically impacted communities. Pressley's vision is aligned with our own, and Congressmembers who believe in a 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights should continue to advance legislation that turns this into reality, such as some of the following below:

Rep. David Cicilline's Equality Act would prohibit discrimination of LGBTQ+ people in areas of employment, education, credit, jury service, federal funding, housing, and public accommodations. Just as federal action was imperative in the 1960s to combat state-level segregation and racism, federal action is essential today for guaranteeing the civil rights of LGBTQ+ people to be able to fully participate in economic life.

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman's Drug Policy Reform Act would decriminalize drug possession and expunge the records of people who had been wrongly incarcerated, including reversing the life-long consequences of drug arrests. This would be a meaningful step toward an end to the so-called War on Drugs, which since its inception has been a domestic occupation and surveillance program of low-income communities not aiming toward any modicum of public safety.  

Rep. Ayanna Pressley's Ending Qualified Immunity Act would end qualified immunity for law enforcement and government employees that allow them to escape civil penalties for violating people's civil rights.

Rep. Ted Lieu's No Money Bail Act would prohibit the use of money bail in federal criminal cases and incentivize states to also no longer use a racist/classist money bail system.

Rep. Henry Johnson Jr.'s Stop Militarizing Law Enforcement Act would restrict the Department of Defense from transferring surplus military equipment to law enforcement agencies.  

The core of progressives in Congress are unified around an economic program, one which is very popular with the American people.
This seems like the proper time to mention that we added two new rights to the 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights since our previous article—so that we now match the original Bill of Rights with ten. We added one right by splitting the first right into numbers one and two, as we felt both parts deserved their own entry (see above). Then, we added this economic right (#9) because, to paraphrase Leonard Cohen, everybody knows the rich are not accountable before the law in the same way as the poor—just as everyone knows we have a racist justice system. Those oppressive realities have to change.

10. The right to recreation and participation in civic and democratic life.

The United States is unique among rich industrialized countries in not guaranteeing paid vacation time. It's hard to imagine how a worker can find time to pursue their hobbies, let alone enjoy their life on earth without having vacation days. We therefore applaud Bernie Sanders' Guaranteed Paid Vacation Act, even though we support a greater number of vacation days than the legislation proposes.

Rep. Anna Eshoo's Election Day Holiday Act makes the Tuesday that follows the first Monday of November a Federal Holiday, making it easier for workers to vote.

Rep. John Sarbanes' For the People Act is Democrats' comprehensive legislation to improve the U.S.'s electoral system. The bill expands voter registration and voting access, requires independent redistricting commissions, secures election technology, addresses campaign finance and creates a public financing option, creates new ethics requirements for federal elected officials, and requires presidential candidates to disclose 10 years of tax returns. Because of Sen. Manchin and Sinema's refusal to allow this legislation to advance, it currently languishes in the Senate. 

Rep. Terri Sewell's John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act would restore key elements of the landmark 1965 Voting Rights Act after being stripped by the Supreme Court. With the 2020 election's electoral legitimacy crisis and subsequent efforts by Republican-controlled state legislatures across the country to limit the right to vote, the bill provides urgent legislative changes to protect minority voters' rights.  

So, there you have it: an avalanche of recent legislation in support of the tenets of our 21st Century of Economic Bill of Rights.  

Of course, a few of these bills do not reflect the ideal content of each of the proposed economic rights. Future work will be necessary to turn the current versions into genuine legal rights for all Americans.

It's also worth noting that not every Bill listed above was introduced by a progressive, though the large majority were. Still, every one of these Bills, and the policies they propose, are supported by progressives—and much of the legislation featured in this article is only supported by progressives.  

This signifies two very important things: 

1. The core of progressives in Congress are unified around an economic program, one which is very popular with the American people

2. Thus, whether they know it yet or not, progressives support a 21st Century Economic Bill of Rights

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.

Alan Minsky is the Executive Director of Progressive Democrats of America.

Harvey J. Kaye is Professor Emeritus of Democracy and Justice Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay and the author of the newly published "The Fight for the Four Freedoms: What Made FDR and the Greatest Generation Truly Great," "Take Hold of Our History: Make America Radical Again," and "FDR on Democracy."

Michael Brennan is the Strategy Coordinator for the US Federation of Worker Cooperatives. Their organizing and research interests include solidarity economies, public banks, public power, and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). ...Read More
From the CCDS Socialist Education Project...
A China Reader


Edited by Duncan McFarland

A project of the CCDS Socialist Education Project and Online University of the Left


244 pages, $20 (discounts available for quantity orders from carld717@gmail.com), or order at :


The book is a selection of essays offering keen insight into the nature of China and its social system, its internal debates, and its history. It includes several articles on the US and China and the growing efforts of friendship between the Chinese and American peoples.

Click here for the Table of Contents
Taking Down
White Supremacy

Edited by the CCDS
Socialist Education Project


This collection of 20 essays brings together a variety of articles-theoretical, historical, and experiential-that address multi-racial, multi-national unity. The book provides examples theoretically and historically, of efforts to build multi-racial unity in the twentieth century.

166 pages, $12.50 (discounts available for quantity), order at :


  Click here for the Table of contents

NOT TO BE MISSED: Short Links To Longer Reads...
Click map for expanded view

The Silent Epidemics

Soaring obesity, uncontrolled hypertension behind fast-growing Medicare spending on dialysis

By Merrill Goozner
GoozNews

March 18, 2022 - Regular readers may wonder why I spend so little time writing about the pandemic. The answer is simple: When a third of Americans refuse to follow sensible public health guidelines, what purpose is served by my adding to the media cacophony castigating vaccine/mask skeptics and public health officialdom’s inadequate response?

Yesterday’s appointment of Dr. Ashish Jha as the new “pandemic czar” in the White House is a case in point. The dean of Brown University’s public health school has little government experience and none coordinating the complex and oftentimes competing government agencies responsible for public health. On the surface, Jha would seem a poor choice for coordinating the government-wide response to COVID-19, as an article in STAT pointed out this morning.

His predecessor Jeffrey Zients, while lacking medical experience, at least had the virtue of being a long-time government apparatchik who previously coordinated the U.S. response to the Ebola threat. Jha served on an advisory panel for that 2014 effort, but has since served mostly as a media talking head on public health issues.

For what it’s worth, I wish Jha well. Outsiders can sometimes serve as catalysts for change. Given the likehood of another COVID wave, here’s hoping his demonstrated communication skills can convince the third of the public that remains in thrall to rightwing media and demagogues to heed the call for another vaccine push or for renewed protective measures should they become necessary.

A different public health fiasco

I’m skeptical, which brings me to today’s topic. Public health pronouncements have had zero impact on the nation’s two largest public health disasters, which long predate COVID and are major drivers of rising health care costs, especially for the nation’s Medicare program. They are rising obesity, which is the leading cause of diabetes, chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis; and uncontrolled high blood pressure (hypertension), which is the leading cause of heart attacks and strokes and the second leading cause of chronic kidney disease and ESRD.


A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention examines the health and financial toll taken by these twin epidemics through the prism of dialysis, the only condition covered by Medicare for the entire population. Diabetes accounts for 47% of new dialysis patients each year and uncontrolled hypertension accounts for another 29%.

Over the first two decades of this century, the number of chronic kidney disease patients who each year reach end-stage and require dialysis soared 42% to 131,423. The total number of people on dialysis more than doubled to nearly 800,000 (the average life expectancy for someone on dialysis is somewhere between 5 and 10 years).

On a populaton-adjusted basis, the annual new case rate went from 33 to 40 per 10,000 population. The total rate for people on dialysis soared from 127 to 238 per 10,000 population over the last two decades.

As a result, Medicare’s total tab for dialysis treatments soared 41% in just the past decade, reaching $49.2B in 2018. Even after adjusting for inflation, that’s an increase of more than 20%. Dialysis spending now accounts for nearly 1 in every 10 dollars spent by the Medicare program. ...Read More
Photo: Summer Lee, Member Of The Pennsylvania State House, And Now A Candidate In The Democratic Primary For A District That Includes Pittsburgh. Foto From Her Website.

Congressional Candidate Summer Lee Likens BDS to Black Lives Matter and Questions Israel’s ‘Right to Defend Itself’

Appearing before a pro-Israel group, Summer Lee, a progressive candidate for Congress from Pittsburgh area, refused to back down on Palestinian rights.

By Philip Weiss
Mondoweiss.net
  

APRIL 7, 2022  - A significant battle is shaping up in Pittsburgh’s congressional primary May 17 between establishment Democrat Steve Irwin, who has ties to the Israel lobby, and progressive Democrats Summer Lee and Jerry Dickinson. We’ve already mentioned Dickinson’s balancing act on Israel.

Summer Lee, a state legislator and former organizer, who is endorsed by Bernie Sanders, on Monday appeared at a pro-Israel organization, the Pittsburgh Jewish Federation, and answered questions about Israel. The impressive thing about Lee’s appearance is that she refused to back down on Palestinian rights during a round of pro-Israel questions.

She backed the Iran deal and supported conditioning aid to Israel over home demolitions and child detention. She did not rule out the idea that Israel is an apartheid state, suggesting that was the perspective of her Palestinian constituents. And while she did not endorse the BDS campaign, she likened it to the Black Lives Matter protests in the U.S.

Lee also attacked the claim that Israel always has a right to defend itself. Expanding on a tweet from last May’s Gaza onslaught in which she said that Israel has no such right when it is committing “undeniable atrocities on a marginalized population,” Lee said that American politicians should have condemned Israel’s actions, including the police storming of Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem that helped detonate the hostilities.

Here are some excerpts of Lee’s answers to questions from an (unidentified) official of the Jewish Federation who instructed Lee that about 90 percent of American Jews are pro-Israel and many vote on that basis.

Lee praised the Iran deal as “one of our strongest pieces… we need to prioritize the diplomatic approach… We need to prioritize the safety and security of that region…”

Asked if she believes “Israel should exist as a Jewish and democratic state,” Lee said it does.

  • Absolutely I do. What’s more is that I also understand and truly believe the need that we have for Jewish folks globally to have a safe haven, to have a refuge and a place to be safe.

Lee was questioned about her criticism of Israel’s actions last May during a Palestinian uprising, when she likened its self-defense claim to that of George Zimmerman, 28, the security officer who killed 14-year-old Trayvon Martin in Florida in 2012. At the time, Lee tweeted:

  • “When I hear American pols use the refrain ‘Israel has the right to defend itself’ in response to undeniable atrocities on a marginalized pop, I can’t help but think of how the west has always justified indiscriminate & disproportionate force & power on weakened & marginalized ppl.”


Photo: The Gobi desert is already home to vast solar and wind resources, but China has renewable expansion plans totaling nearly half a terawatt in the worksDepositphotos
VIEW 1 IMAGES

China plans a mammoth 450 GW of wind and solar in its deserts

By Loz Blain
New Atlas

March 07, 2022 - China already dominates renewable energy production. Its installed capacity of around 895 GW in 2020 was more than the European Union, the USA and Australia combined.

And while the world in general is accelerating its transition to renewable power, China is growing its capacity faster than anyone else as well.

Now, according to Reuters, it's got a series of mammoth solar and wind projects in the pipeline that will expand its current capacity by nearly half a terawatt.

"China is going to build the biggest scale of solar and wind power generation capacity on the Gobi and desert in history, at 450 GW," said He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), on the sidelines of the National People's Congress in Beijing on Saturday.

About 100 GW of this new capacity is already under construction, adding to 306 GW of solar capacity and 328 GW of wind capacity that were already installed by the end of 2021.

Chinese president Xi Jinping has pledged to get wind and solar capacity over 1.2 terawatts by 2030, as part of the country's plan to see its carbon emissions peak and begin to decline around the same time.

Coal will continue to support China's energy grids for the time being. While some 43.5 percent of the country's total installed capacity – or more than a terawatt by last October – is now renewable, intermittency issues and capacity factors have kept the percentage of actual power that's generated by renewables closer to 26 percent, with most of the rest being coal-fired.

Still, this compares favorably to other major economies, and it'll continue to grow steadily as these enormous planned resources come online.

Source: Reuters

Loz Blain has been one of our most versatile contributors since 2007, and has since proven himself as a photographer, videographer, presenter, producer and podcast engineer, as well as a senior features writer. Joining the team as a motorcycle specialist, he's covered just about everything for New Atlas, concentrating lately on eVTOLs, hydrogen, energy, aviation, audiovisual, weird stuff and things that go fast.
An image from "The Big Heat"

What Noir Films Taught Us About Police

Before copaganda became widely televised in shows like “Law & Order,” police were more accurately portrayed as abusers of power.

By Joe George  
The Progressive Magazine via Portside

April 7, 2022 - Since it debuted in 1999, every episode of the NBC series Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (SVU) has opened with the same narration: 

  • In the criminal justice system, sexually-based offenses are considered especially heinous. In New York City, the dedicated detectives who investigate these vicious felonies are members of an elite squad known as the Special Victims Unit. These are their stories.

These lines, soberly delivered by Steven Zirnkilton, suggest a duality: on one side are the criminals who commit offenses; on the other are the detectives who stop them. But the narration also implies a third party—the ordinary citizens, like you and me, who are endangered by the criminals if the detectives fail.

The portrayal of police in film noir runs contrary to modern copaganda.

Such distinctions are the core of “copaganda,” which includes SVU, its parent show Law & Order (which aired 456 episodes between 1991 and 2019), and its five fellow spin-offs. As the portmanteau suggests, copaganda refers to any piece of media that portrays the police as a necessary social institution. While these can include viral videos of police chatting with neighborhood kids or doing lip-sync battles, the most pervasive forms are pieces of pop culture. 

While some pieces of popular culture do show us the real cost of U.S. policing, copaganda remains the norm. And it’s not hard to see why. In the high-stakes world of film and television production, controversy can lose viewers, especially in the reliable market of middle-aged and elderly audiences who tend to watch procedurals. Given the cries police unions have pitched against even the most reasonable criticism, it’s no surprise that the billionaires running studios greenlight pro-police movies and shows.

As author Alex Vitale points out in his book The End of Policing, copaganda teaches us that “police are bringers of justice. They are here to help maintain social order so that no one should be subjected to abuse.”

But that wasn’t always the case. Long before copaganda began its reign on screens big and small, films noir stalked the popular imagination. Noir films (literally, “dark films”) are crime movies about morally ambiguous characters being sucked into a life of crime. Following the lead of German expressionists such as Fritz Lang and F.W. Murnau, directors such as Billy Wilder, Orson Welles, and Jacques Tourneur integrated heavy shadow and contrast into their stories about desperate men and duplicitous women. 

Take, for example, 1941’s The Maltese Falcon, universally considered to be among the best noir films. Written and directed by John Huston and based on the novel by Dashiell Hammett, The Maltese Falcon stars Humphrey Bogart as Sam Spade, a private detective hired by femme fatale Ruth Wonderly (Mary Astor) to find the titular avian statue. As the film’s labyrinthine plot unfolds, Spade becomes caught up in the machinations of sneering lacky Joel Cairo (Peter Lorre), nervous trigger man Wilmer Cook (Elisha Cook Jr.), and haughty socialite Kasper Gutman (Sydney Greenstreet), all of whom double-cross and manipulate one another in their search for the falcon. 

Although Spade initially seems to get along with the story’s two primary detectives, Lieutenant Dundy (Barton MacLane) and Tom Polhaus (Ward Bond), the relationship quickly reveals itself to be one of convenience. In the next scene, the duo arrives at Spade’s apartment to question him about Archer’s murder and cinematographer Arthur Edeson shoots the pair as twin figures of threat. The two stride into the apartment, their overcoats floating as dark masses. 

With each cop framed on either side of Spade, the two begin to question him, Polhaus asking in a friendly tone while Dundy stares on. Spade assents to their searching the apartment, but adds the caveat, “if you got a search warrant.” The cops balk at the suggestion that they follow the law, with Polhaus whining, “You can’t treat us like that, Sam; it ain’t right. We got our work to do.” The scene ends with Mundy insisting upon his decency, explaining to Sam, “if you did it or if you didn’t, you’ll get a square deal from me and most of the breaks.”

Dundy and Polhaus have relatively little screen time in the movie, but their presence is felt throughout. Having decided that Spade killed his partner Archer (Jerome Cowan), a theory that eventually proves false, Dundy pursues and pressures him, never discovering the true murderer. In fact, the cops’ need for a simple explanation allows for the movie’s climactic double-cross. 

Telling them that the police will need a fall guy to be charged, thus allowing everyone else to escape unharmed, Spade plays Cook, Cairo, and Gutman against each other. Concepts of justice or safety never enter into the film. 

Even in movies with police as the primary characters, such as Welles’s Touch of Evil (1958) and Joseph H. Lewis’s The Big Combo (1955), law enforcement is portrayed as simply a different type of gangster. 1953’s The Big Heat, directed by Lang and starring Glenn Ford as Detective Dave Banion, offers perhaps the most sympathetic depiction of a police officer in a film noir. But even that cannot subscribe to copaganda’s ideas about police stopping crimes.

Written by Sydney Boehm and adapted from the novel by William P. McGivern, The Big Heat follows Banion’s investigation into the apparent suicide of an officer gone rogue. The department determines that the officer killed himself out of guilt over various misdeeds and wants Banion to provide evidence to corroborate this simple interpretation. But after speaking with the officer’s mistress, who also dies under mysterious circumstances, Banion suspects that more is at work. 

The film’s central tension comes from Banion’s relationship with two women, his supportive wife Bertha (Jeanette Dolan) and the seductive moll Debby Marsh (Gloria Grahame), girlfriend to the violent mob lieutenant Vince Stone (Lee Marvin). It would be tempting to call The Big Heat a movie about the depravity of the criminal class, a reading reinforced by the movie’s most infamous scene, in which Stone disfigures Marsh by pouring boiling coffee onto her face. But not only is Banion’s department in league with Stone’s boss, the crime lord Mike Lagana (Alexander Scourby), he is no hero. Ford plays him as a man only one step away from joining the bad guys. 

The portrayal of police in film noir runs contrary to modern copaganda. Most pop culture about police wants desperately to follow the Law & Order model, which rewrites real-world crimes into narratives with a simple dichotomy between good and evil. As emphasized in the series’ opening voice-over, these shows imagine “the police who investigate crime and the district attorneys who prosecute the offenders” as representatives of the people. 

But noir films like The Maltese Falcon and The Big Heat had no use for such fantasies. With their dyspeptic view of humanity, they knew that centralized authoritarian power always leads to abuse and oppression—that cops were just legitimized gangsters.

Where modern copaganda insists that police hold a hard line between decency and depravity, noir teaches us that no such line exists. These movies remind us that police do not protect the people. Rather, they abuse and exploit them.

[Joe George is a pop culture writer whose work has appeared in Polygon, Slate, Den of Geek, and elsewhere. You can follow him on Twitter at @jageorgeii and read more at joewriteswords.com.] ...Read More

Points of No Return

SEA / ICE / LAND As the world warms, these Earth systems are changing. Could further warming make them spiral out of control?

By Alexandria Herr, Shannon Osaka, and Maddie Stone
Grist.org

April, 2022 - In 2019 an international team of scientists published a commentary in the celebrated science journal Nature, sounding the alarm of a planet in crisis — and calling for transformative change. 

“We are in a state of planetary emergency,” they wrote, departing from the usual sterility of scientific writing. “The stability and resilience of our planet is in peril.”

Yes, they were writing about climate change, but of a particular kind: climate tipping points, elements of the Earth system in which small changes in global temperature can kick off reinforcing loops that ‘tip’ a system into a profoundly different state, accelerating heat waves, permafrost thaw, and coastal flooding — and, in some cases, fueling more warming. The planet has already warmed by roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the Industrial Revolution, and if humans keep flooding the atmosphere with greenhouse gases at the same rate, we’re on track to increase that to 2.7 to 3.1 degrees C (4.9 to 5.6 degrees F) by the end of the century. 

So those small changes are getting bigger — increasing the likelihood of triggering those reinforcing loops, known as positive feedbacks. (For example, warming increases the frequency of wildfires, which in turn increases the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from burning trees, which leads to an increase in global temperature, which means, you guessed it, even more wildfires.)

The scientists identified various elements of the Earth system at risk of reaching points of no return. These elements broadly fall into three categories — ice, sea, and land — and range from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet to the death of coral reefs to the raging of more and more wildfires.

An international team of scientists warned about the possibility of a number of Earth systems approaching tipping points that could lead to uncontrolled climate change in a 2019 paper in the scientific journal Nature. Amelia Bates / Grist
The concept of tipping points challenges the dominant understanding of how climate change fundamentally works, says Will Steffen, one of the Nature article’s co-authors and an emeritus professor of climate science at Australian National University. Rather than a dial slowly turning up, tipping elements could compound, he says, combining to build a greater, planetary-wide tipping point. Alternatively, they could push one element out of whack, triggering another to fall out of phase, and then another in a domino-like effect, resulting in a “rapid acceleration of warming until the Earth stabilizes in another state.” These possibilities are far from certain, he admits, but the consequences of a planetary tipping point are severe enough that even a slim risk needs to be taken seriously. 

The particular danger, according to the Nature paper’s authors, is that even though change in a tipping element may happen slowly on a human timescale, once a certain threshold in the system is crossed, it can become unstoppable. This means that even if the planet’s temperature is stabilized, the transition of certain Earth systems from one state to another could pick up speed, like a rollercoaster car that’s already gone over the apex of a track. 

Jacquelyn Gill is a paleoecologist at the University of Maine who studies physical records of Earth’s ancient climate. She didn’t work on the Nature paper, but she says the evidence from Earth’s history supports the idea of nonlinear climate responses, and that understanding this evidence can help us better understand what might lie ahead. “It’s not just the matter of more CO2 equals more warming,” Gill says. “There will be feedbacks.” 

For Steffen and his co-authors, including Tim Lenton, the director of the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, understanding the risks of tipping points requires a radical reframing of the climate challenge — and a more fundamental shift in human society than merely pumping successively fewer and fewer emissions into the atmosphere. “If we’re right about the tipping points, they’re not marginal,” Lenton tells Grist. “They’re existential risks.”

Sea

When it comes to the climate crisis, the sea is both an unwitting ally and frequent victim. The world’s five oceans — which cover 70 percent of its surface — absorb both heat and carbon dioxide, gobbling up at least a quarter of the emissions dumped into the air from the burning of oil, gas, and coal. Without them, the world would have already warmed so much, it would be virtually uninhabitable by humans.

But all that absorption comes at a cost. As heat rises, ice melts, and carbon dioxide pours into the ocean, ecosystems are thrown into disarray. Coral reefs are overheated, withered by extreme temperatures and dissolving in acidified waters. Currents that have been stable for millennia are starting to shift and change, inching toward collapse. In the far reaches of the North Atlantic and across broad swaths of the tropics, some climate tipping points may already be underway.

Atlantic Ocean circulation

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation acts as a massive ocean conveyor belt, carrying warm water from the tropics north toward Greenland, where it is cooled and then sent back south along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. Amelia Bates / Grist

Early in the 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow, climate scientist Jack Hall — played by a concerned-looking Dennis Quaid — receives a late-night phone call. It’s a fellow scientist he’d recently met at a conference. “You recall what you said in New Delhi, about how polar melting might disrupt the North Atlantic current?” the scientist asks. “Well …” the scientist continues, his voice trailing off. “I think it’s happening.” 

What follows is hardly scientifically accurate — it’s a Hollywood movie, after all. As a consequence of that disrupted current, tornadoes sweep across Los Angeles and a tsunami-like wave crashes into New York City. But while most of the film belongs in the realm of sci-fi (or “cli-fi”), the movie’s central premise — that the collapse of one ocean current could have knock-on effects for the rest of the world — is true. 

The Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a single current: a thick band of water that flows north from the Gulf of Mexico, hugs the southeastern coast of the United States, and then shoots up north toward the frigid outposts of Greenland and Iceland. Along the coast of the U.S., where the current is known as the “Gulf Stream,” the water is warm — in the summer, it can reach a balmy 71 degrees Fahrenheit — but as it winds its way northward it gets colder and colder, releasing huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere. This current — known as the “Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,” or AMOC for short — keeps the weather mild in cities like Berlin, London, and Paris, and scientists estimate that the energy it transports is roughly equivalent to the power provided by 1 million average-sized nuclear plants. 

The AMOC relies on a mechanism that happens off the coast of Greenland.

There, the waters of the current get so heavy, cold, and salty that they plunge to the ocean floor.

But as the planet warms and Arctic ice melts, billions of tons of freshwater are pouring into the ocean.

That freshwater dilutes the current and makes it lighter — and less likely to sink.

In the short term, that means the AMOC could slow down.

In the long run, it may grind to a halt completely.

“This is not just a theory,” says Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “It has happened repeatedly in the history of the Earth during the last ice age.”

A collapsed Atlantic current could cause plummeting temperatures in the northern hemisphere, an extra foot and a half of sea level rise along the East Coast of the U.S., and more ferocious winter storms over Europe, according to modeling from the U.K.’s national weather service. Scientists say it could also rejigger agriculture, by mutating precipitation patterns around the world, endangering crop yields in Great Britain and Ireland, which would become more arid and cold.

While scientists know that the Atlantic current could shut down, nobody has a clear idea of when it could happen. In its 2014 summary of the state of Earth’s climate, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, said it was “very unlikely” that the current would collapse during the 21st century, but that it was too difficult to predict what would happen after 2100. Other papers have estimated that the current could come to a stop with anywhere between roughly 3 and 5.5 degrees C (5.4 and 9.9 degrees F) of global warming.

“If we stay below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming, then it really is highly unlikely that we will have an AMOC shutdown,” says Levke Caesar, a researcher at Ireland’s Maynooth University. “But if we have other degrees of warming, we don’t know.” 

According to Caesar’s own research, the Atlantic circulation has slowed since the mid-20th century, and now carries around 15 percent less water than it once did. In another study, released in February, scientists argued that the current is at “its weakest state in over a millennium.” A particularly dramatic slowdown from 2009 to 2010 was linked to an icy winter in western Europe and an abrupt spike in sea-level rise along the East Coast. (Some scientists, including Caesar, suspect the current pulls water away from the eastern seaboard; when it slows down, the ocean waters surge up again.) Thomas Delworth, a senior scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey, says that by 2100, the current could weaken by 30 to 60 percent — but “there’s still a lot of uncertainty.” 

Even a total shutdown of the Atlantic current wouldn’t happen overnight like in The Day After Tomorrow. Rahmstorf characterizes a potential collapse as more of a “winding down” that would take place over 60 to 100 years. But that “winding down” would drive wild weather changes, rising sea levels, and chilling temperatures from Spain to Scandinavia. And, like many scientists, Rahmstorf won’t rule out the possibility of an earlier shutdown. 

“If you say we are 90 percent sure nothing serious will happen by 2100 to the AMOC, that sounds reassuring to people,” he says. “But it’s not reassuring to me. A 10 percent risk is far too big.”

Coral reefs

Scientists believe coral reefs throughout the world, such as this one off Champion Island in the Galápagos Islands, may have already reached a tipping point. Underwater Earth / XL Catlin Seaview Survey / Christophe Bailhache

Steph Gardner was nearing the end of her doctorate when the coral reefs she researched bleached for the first time. Her field sites were scattered along the Great Barrier Reef off the northeast coast of Australia — sections of the ocean that had begun to feel as familiar to her as the hallways of her own home. She knew where the large acropora coral was, with its hundreds of pointy fronds; she knew to make a right turn at a large, lumpy pillar called a bommie.

But this time, something was amiss. A marine heat wave had surged across the Pacific Ocean, dialing the water to 86 degrees F — the same temperature as a warm bath. Gardner’s fellow researchers were coming up from the reef with tears in their eyes: The coral below had turned a ghostly, almost fluorescent white. “It was just like seeing a graveyard — absolutely gut-wrenching,” says Gardner, who is now a researcher at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

That was in 2016, the year of the largest and most devastating coral bleaching event in history. More than half of the corals in the northern, 435-mile-long stretch of the Great Barrier Reef died — some immediately, cooking in temperatures 4 to 7 degrees F above average. Others slowly starved over a period of months. And the bleaching wasn’t confined to the coast of Australia. All over the world, reefs were turning white and dying off. Then, in 2017, it happened again. And then again in 2020.

“From my perspective,” Gardner says, “we’ve already reached a tipping point.”

Corals are strange creatures: minuscule animals that house tiny, friendly plants within their flesh and tentacles. In exchange, the plants help feed the coral, tinting their hosts a dusty pink or brown. But when water temperatures rise around 1 to 2 degrees C (1.8 to 3.6 degrees F) above average, that previously happy relationship breaks down. The plants rebel, spitting out toxic levels of oxygen. In response, the corals hastily jettison them, losing their color and standing out starkly bone-white against the rest of the reef — a process known as “bleaching.”

A reef can survive if cooler temperatures return quickly, returning coral-feeding plants to their homes. Without them, many corals starve to death, their skeletons swallowed up by thick tufts of what looks like dark green fur. The “fur” are colonizing species of algae, which take over reefs when corals crumble. “What was once a living, vibrant reef becomes a reef of skeletons,” says David Kline, a coral scientist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama. “It becomes a morgue, covered over with slimy algae.”

A diver inspects bleached coral reefs in the South Pacific Ocean off the coast of the Society Islands in French Polynesia. Alexis Rosenfeld / Getty Images
It’s hard to identify a single, global tipping point for corals: Each reef is different, accustomed to different temperatures and living with different sources of stress. One reef, exposed to record-high temperatures, might die in a matter of weeks, already overwhelmed by an influx of smothering algae. Another might survive, protected by cold water welling up from the ocean floor. But as the planet warms, the ocean warms with it — and eventually most coral reefs will pay the price. 

A healthy reef can take 10 to 15 years to return to normal after a catastrophic heat wave, but severe bleaching is now occurring every six years. According to the IPCC, 70 to 90 percent of coral reefs could disappear even if average temperatures remain under 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) of global warming. At 2 degrees of warming, nearly all of them — 99 percent — would vanish. 

And it’s not just rising temperatures that threaten the reefs. The ocean absorbs more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide humans spew into the atmosphere, and all that gas makes the water sharply acidic. If the pH of a reef drops too low, its corals won’t just be overwhelmed by heat — their skeletons could start dissolving. 

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor of marine studies at Australia’s University of Queensland, says current rates of warming could soon make the planet inhospitable for reefs. “I believe you get to a point where the odds are so stacked, and the corals are so sick and poor, that we’re just not going to have coral reefs anymore,” he says.

That could be catastrophic for the millions of people who depend on reefs around the world. Despite covering less than 2 percent of the ocean floor, corals’ complex structures house around a quarter of the planet’s marine species. They also provide food, income, and storm protection for approximately 500 million people. 

Despite the odds, scientists are continuing to help reefs recover any way they can, engaging in a Noah’s Ark-type attempt to rescue — and re-introduce — as many corals as possible. Some are cross-breeding corals, trying to develop species that can withstand record-high temperatures and acidity; others are visiting distant coral outposts, like hot mangrove lagoons, to better understand how so-called “supercorals” are already surviving some of the most challenging conditions in the world. 

“We’ve shifted into an emergency mindset,” Kline says. “If we don’t actively try to protect coral reefs, things are really going to change for the worse.”

Ice covering the Beaufort Sea near the Arctic Ocean breaks up in the spring as the days grow longer and air and water temperatures warm. United States Geological Survey

Ice

The Greenland ice sheet in the high Arctic and the Antarctic ice sheet that encircles the South Pole combine to hold 99 percent of the world’s freshwater. If all of that water emptied into the sea, the oceans would rise hundreds of feet, permanently redrawing Earth’s coastlines. 

A growing body of evidence from Earth’s geologic past shows that both ice sheets can melt rapidly when something — or someone — fiddles with the thermostat. Both appear to have tipping points that could lead to runaway ice collapse and irreversible sea-level rise. But reaching those thresholds varies dramatically from one pole to the other as a result of stark differences in the atmosphere and ocean currents surrounding each pole, as well as the geometry and scale of the two ice sheets.

Both ice sheets are effectively a vast mountain of ice draped over a continent (Antarctica) or a giant island (Greenland). Ice flows off these frozen mountains and into the surrounding seas through hundreds of enormous, frozen rivers, known as outlet glaciers. In parts of Greenland where outlet glaciers meet the ocean, the water is warm enough that these glaciers immediately start to melt and break up. But in the much colder seas surrounding Antarctica, they’re often buttressed by floating ice shelves. Like corks in champagne bottles, these shelves help hold back the land-bound ice behind them — unless warming water starts to shake the shelves loose.

Greenland

Greenland has shed nearly 4 trillion tons of ice into the sea in recent decades, as seen here near Kulusuk Island. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

It was early one May when Santiago de la Peña realized something wasn’t right. The glaciologist had just hiked to Russell Glacier, located about 20 miles inland of Greenland’s west coast. At that time of year, the glacier should have been frozen solid. But a river of meltwater had formed across its surface, creating a series of enormous waterfalls. 

A landscape that should have been silent was reverberating with the roar of freshly melted ice making its way toward the sea. “I’d never seen so much meltwater at that time of year,” says de la Peña, who has worked at field sites in western Greenland for the past decade.

That was 2019 — a record year for the loss of Greenland’s ice. After an unusually warm spring followed by a late July heat wave that caused nearly the entire ice sheet’s surface to start melting, Greenland would go on to shed 532 billion tons of ice into the sea that year. As a result, global sea levels are now permanently 1.5 millimeters (0.06 inches) higher.

A total meltdown of Greenland’s ice sheet would raise sea levels much higher still — by about 24 feet. Though scientists estimate that it would take at least a thousand years for Earth’s second-largest ice sheet to melt completely, years like 2019 are a reminder that Greenland is already undergoing a massive transformation with planet-wide consequences. Between 1992 and 2018, Greenland shed nearly 4 trillion tons of ice, and researchers worry that if carbon emissions continue to rise it could pass a point of no return within decades.

There are two key phenomena behind Greenland’s melting — and if they accelerate and if future feedback loops amplify them, the ice sheet could plunge into a state of irreversible loss. One is mild summer weather and a warming atmosphere melting the sheet’s surface, causing water to pool and run downhill into the sea. The thawing of fresh, white snowfall exposes darker, bare ice, which absorbs more of the sun’s energy, triggering more melting.

The other is around Greenland’s coasts, where rising ocean temperatures are destabilizing the edges of glaciers that funnel ice into the ocean. As these gateways break up, the frozen rivers they hold back start flowing faster into the surrounding sea. 

Over the last 30 years, heat in the ocean and in the atmosphere has contributed roughly equally to Greenland’s slimdown. But in recent years, the atmosphere has taken a larger role, as summertime heat waves supercharged by climate change trigger melt events like Greenland saw in 2012 and 2019. If those become the norm, dangerous feedback loops could kick in. One that’s particularly troubling: As Greenland’s surface melts, the ice sheet’s elevation drops like a popsicle flattening onto a pavement. And as surface elevation falls, surface air temperatures rise, resulting in more melting.

Taken together, all of these processes could tip the ice sheet into a state of irreversible meltdown. One recent modeling study that looked only at surface melt found that 2.7 degrees C (4.9 degrees F) of global warming could push Greenland into a state of “sustained mass loss” — an effect known as “climate forcing” — where meltwater runoff exceeds snowfall accumulation year after year. But other models that consider both surface melt and coastal glacier retreat suggest Greenland’s true tipping point might be as low as 1.6 degrees C (2.9 degrees F) — merely 0.4 degrees C (0.7 degrees F) above the current level of warming. 

“Unless we figure out a way to rapidly reverse climate forcing, my opinion is that the ice sheet’s doomed,” says Ian Howat, a glaciologist at Ohio State University. Research Howat co-authored last year suggests that Greenland already passed a mini tipping point in the early 2000s, when dozens of coastal glaciers simultaneously started to retreat.

It’s still possible, however, that we can lower our emissions quickly enough to prevent the ice sheet from entering full-on meltdown mode. It’s also possible that Greenland’s ice actually has no tipping point: In contrast to earlier work, a modeling study published in December found that negative feedbacks, like increased snowfall over Greenland’s remaining ice as the ice sheet contracts, could prevent a runaway collapse and allow Greenland to restabilize at a smaller “steady state.” Scientists are still investigating why some models predict this, though it may be that as the ice sheet retreats inland and Greenland’s coastlines become flatter, moist marine air is able to migrate further inland before it rises and condenses into clouds, which can then produce snow.

Even in a catastrophic meltdown scenario, “we have to remember it’s going to take a long time to lose the Greenland ice sheet,” says Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist and glaciologist at the Danish Meteorological Institute. And how long exactly that process takes depends on our carbon emissions. A 2019 paper found that under a high-emissions scenario, the entire Greenland ice sheet could disappear within a thousand years. Under a moderate emissions trajectory, the ice could hang on for a few thousand more. 

“It looks very different if we lose all of the Greenland ice sheet in the next one thousand years versus if we lose all of it in the next ten or twenty thousand years,” says Twila Moon, a glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “We can decide we don’t want to lose as much ice as quickly.”

Antarctica

Ted Scambos has studied Antarctica for decades. But in December 2019, he saw the ice sheet’s future with his own eyes. 

He had just arrived at the remote shores of West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea, and his team had set up a field camp on the floating ice shelf that holds back Thwaites Glacier. Looking inland and uphill at the vast, frozen river that wends its way into the heart of West Antarctica, Scambos could see giant icy crevasses stretching across the horizon, like cracks in a wall on the brink of collapse. 

“The sense of scale, of this huge region pushing towards the sea, actually gives one a feeling of unease,” recalls Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “You can feel the threat, live and in person.”

Since the early 2000s, Thwaites, also known as the “Doomsday Glacier,” has dumped a trillion tons of ice into the sea. Scientists like Scambos believe it may be in the early stages of an irreversible collapse, which could take out a large portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet, raising global sea levels by at least 2 feet, and perhaps more than 10. 

A race is now on to determine whether Thwaites has already crossed such a tipping point, and whether some of the larger coastal glaciers rimming East Antarctica will be similarly imperiled if global warming continues unabated.

The reason Thwaites is particularly unstable has to do with its shape.

The bottom of the glacier is anchored to an ancient seabed — a point called a grounding line, where ice, rock, and ocean meet.

As one moves inland on Thwaites, the bedrock below it gets deeper.

Warm ocean water is weakening the undersides of the floating ice shelves that support Thwaites.

That pushes the grounding line inland, leaving progressively thicker slabs of ice floating unmoored.

The edges of the shelf have a harder time holding back thicker floating ice, and so the entire glacier starts flowing faster into the sea. This triggers even more retreat in a runaway process known as the “marine ice sheet instability.” According to Scambos, “That runaway situation may already be started at Thwaites.” He adds that there are only “one or two regions left” where the bedrock rises and could potentially stabilize the glacier as it retreats inland.

The warm ocean water that’s causing so much trouble for Thwaites is part of a deep, salty ring that encircles the continent. Today, a recent strengthening of the westerly winds that whip around Antarctica is pushing more of this warm water toward Thwaites where it can attack the underside of the glacier. 

Even if we were to shut down all carbon emissions today, it’s unlikely we could completely shut off the processes causing Thwaites to retreat: “It’s just going to be a component of how the Earth works for the foreseeable future,” Scambos says, “meaning millennia.”

But not everyone is convinced that Thwaites is doomed. “I don’t think we know enough to say we have reached a tipping point,” says Indrani Das, a glaciologist at Columbia University. “Our observation period is not long enough to assess irreversibility.”

What’s more, even if a runaway scenario is underway, we can still slow it down by slashing emissions rapidly. Scambos notes that avoiding more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) of global warming could make a big difference. “It still runs away,” he says, “but it’s much slower.”

While glaciologists have suspected for decades that Thwaites and the surrounding West Antarctic ice sheet are in a precarious position, East Antarctica’s much larger and colder mantle of ice was long considered stable, at least by comparison. East Antarctica holds enough frozen water to lift sea levels up by 170 feet compared with West Antarctica’s 16 feet. But over the past decade, the assumption that most of that ice will remain put has begun to fade, according to Howat, the Ohio State University glaciologist. Improved maps of the continent have revealed that large portions of East Antarctica, including major sections of the ice contained inside Totten and Denman glaciers and the Wilkes Basin, are also anchored on deep, reverse-sloping bedrock that may be prone to marine ice sheet instability. 

While East Antarctica’s deep-rooted glaciers “seem to be further away from reaching the tipping point for now,” as Scambos puts it, continued ocean warming and circulation of warm, deep water beneath their protective ice shelves could eventually destabilize them. A 2014 modeling paper found that removing a comparably small “plug” of ice from the shelf buttressing the Wilkes Basin — equivalent to just 3 inches of sea-level rise — could be enough to tip off a runaway collapse that adds up to 13 feet to global sea levels. Recent airborne and satellite remote sensing surveys, meanwhile, reveal that both Totten and Denman Glaciers are already retreating at their grounding lines. The collapse of Totten would add the equivalent of another 13 feet of sea-level rise; Denman would add another 5.

“This accounts for a lot more sea level potential than West Antarctica,” says Helen Fricker, a glaciologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California.

Land

As we go about our daily lives, the carbon-rich soils of the boreal forest and lush rainforests of the tropics are hard at work sucking up carbon dioxide, forming what are known as terrestrial carbon sinks. As a result, every year, land-based ecosystems absorb more CO2 than they emit. From 2007 to 2017, they removed about a third of total anthropogenic emissions from the atmosphere. 

But three potential tipping points in the terrestrial system — one in the Arctic, one in the sub-Arctic, and another near the equator — could force the release of huge amounts of carbon stored within those sinks. Once those thresholds are passed, feedback loops might start spiraling, accelerating climate change and reshaping our planet’s forests and soils. 

Permafrost

Water from the Greenland ice sheet flows through heather and peat during unseasonably warm weather in August 2019. Sean Gallup / Getty Images

In 2019, Brendan Rogers stumbled into an open wound of our warming planet. He was doing ecological fieldwork in the Alaskan tundra, during a summer so hot that he recalls people walking around in shorts and t-shirts. As he was about to set up a piece of equipment, the ground beneath his feet gave way, sending him falling into an empty crater.

Rogers had just walked into what scientists call a thermokarst feature. They’re “landscape sloughs and slides, features all over the permafrost zone where the ground literally collapses.” Formed by rapid melt, they are the fingerprints of a process taking place throughout the Arctic: permafrost thaw. Permafrost is ancient Arctic soil that usually stays frozen year-round (hence the “perma”).

Permafrost stores almost twice the amount of carbon than is currently in the atmosphere.

These icy soils act a bit like a freezer, slowing the decomposition of dead plants, animals, and microbes.

As the Arctic warms and permafrost soils thaw, the decomposition speeds up, releasing CO2 and methane, a greenhouse gas that is 84 times as potent as carbon dioxide in the short term.

Historically, vast stores of permafrost in the northern Arctic regions of Alaska, Siberia, Canada, and Greenland have contributed to the Earth’s carbon sink, taking in more carbon than they emit every year, thanks to the growth of carbon-eating lichens and mosses on the surface. But the effects of thaw might already have flipped the permafrost region from carbon sink to source. An international team of scientists estimated that during each winter from 2003 to 2017, Arctic permafrost regions lost 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon, while only storing an average of 1 billion metric tons of carbon each summer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Arctic Report Card for 2019 found that the permafrost region has already started to lose more carbon than it captures — causing a net 300 to 600 million metric tons of carbon to be released into the atmosphere each year. (That’s more than five times the emissions New York City generates in a year.) The data collected for the report card “has convinced me that this feedback has already started,” says Ted Schuur, one of the report card’s authors and a climate scientist at Northern Arizona University.

Over the next 300 years, worst-case scenario models predict that 208 billion metric tons of carbon could be released through gradual permafrost thaw, about 15 percent of what is currently stored. But it could also take place abruptly; sudden thaw in features like lakes, wetlands, and hills, which produce formations like the crater Rogers fell into, might lead to an additional 60 to 100 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions. That doesn’t take into account more intense wildfires, which combust the carbon stored in permafrost soils and accelerate thaw. All these processes feed into an accelerating feedback loop triggering more warming and more permafrost loss.

One reason the loss of so much permafrost is so concerning to scientists is that it’s irreversible. The carbon buried across the Arctic tundra took millennia to accumulate. Once it’s gone, Lenton says, there’s no getting it back.

Boreal forest 

In the summer of 2014, the normally bright midday skies of Canada’s Northwest Territories turned pitch black. After blood-red sun and weeks of thick smoke, Jennifer Baltzer watched as ash rained down over the little town of Yellowknife, where she lived and worked researching boreal forest ecosystems — a band of coniferous forest that circles the globe, right below the Arctic. That year hosted a particularly devastating wildfire season — the one road to Yellowknife was closed for three weeks, with no food coming in or out. For days, a huge cloud of smoke hung across the lake near where her family lived. 

As Baltzer watched the forest burn from her home, with her kids sheltered inside, she was aware she was living in a region that is being reshaped by climate change. “The air quality was so bad that we couldn’t take the kids outside,” she recalls. “It was really hard to be outside. You actually felt physically ill.” 

The boreal forest spans 1.5 billion acres around the planet, more than half the area of Europe, spread across northern Russia and Canada. It’s also the largest carbon storage reservoir on land, containing 30 to 40 percent of all carbon sequestered on land, and takes up slightly more carbon than it emits every year. Some of this carbon is kept above ground, in the trees, but a large chunk is invisible to the naked eye — about 85 percent of it is locked away in cold, wet soils. Over time, moss and slowly decomposing vegetation form layers of carbon-rich soil known as peat. In some regions where it’s cold enough, the peat is largely permafrost. 

But the boreal forests are changing. Fire is part of the natural rhythm of boreal forests, and many tree species within them are adapted to it. But as conditions become warmer and drier, wildfires are happening more frequently and burning over greater areas, threatening the vast reserves of carbon stored in the soils of the boreal region and potentially transforming the forest into grassland or tundra.

The 2014 wildfires in the Northwest Territories that Baltzer lived through burned 8.6 million acres of boreal forest that season alone (compared to the usual average of 1.5 million acres), releasing 94 million metric tons of CO2. The trend has only continued — the summer of 2020 was a record year for wildfires in Siberia, with 26.9 million acres of forest torched as temperatures reached over 100 degrees F in parts of the Arctic. As wildfires accelerate, researchers fear that carbon emissions from the fires could threaten the region’s ability to store more carbon than it emits — and eventually, flip it to a source of carbon emissions.

The winter following the 2014 blazes, some fires were still smoldering in the soil, and Baltzer could see them popping up occasionally through the snow – a phenomenon known as “zombie fires.” Her team studied the impacts of that wildfire season on carbon that had previously accumulated in soils, known as “legacy carbon.” It found that the 2014 wildfires burned older and deeper carbon reserves, releasing them into the atmosphere. 

That’s one part of how the tipping point works in the boreal forest: As the climate warms, wildfires intensify, releasing more carbon, further accelerating warming, Baltzer explains. That’s not the only feedback at play. As fires return more frequently, forests might fail to recover and slowly morph into grassland or tundra, reducing the amount of carbon stored aboveground. And as warming lures pests like bark beetles northward, it also threatens the well-being of the forests and the release of the carbon stored within them — another potential reinforcing loop.

There are other feedbacks, however, that could help stabilize the system. A study charting the regrowth of Alaskan forests following wildfires found that tree species in the region shifted from black spruce to deciduous trees — allowing the regenerated forests to store even more carbon than the old versions. That transition could mean that over time, the carbon impacts of forest fires could be less severe than previously believed. Baltzer says that similar transitions after fire could be taking place across the North American boreal region. These findings, she explains, “point to broader resilience of that particular function of the system.”

Understanding how these different feedbacks might shape the future of the boreal forest and its vast reserve of carbon is a massive scientific undertaking. Scott Goetz is the leader of NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment, a group of scientists keeping tabs on the vital signs of the region, monitoring, among other things, shifts in how the forests are storing and releasing carbon. His team uses field measurements, data from aircraft flown over the forest, and satellites to paint a picture of how much carbon boreal forests take up and releases every year. Those measurements then inform models of the region’s future.

Goetz says that in many ways the multiple feedbacks at play make predicting what will happen “a hellishly complicated problem.” Because of this, Goetz says he doesn’t have a clear answer about if, when, and how fast the system could cross a tipping threshold. “I don’t think we actually know.”

Amazon rainforest

David Lapola has worked in the Amazon rainforest for many years, but September of 2015 sticks out in his memory. He was teaching a field course at a research station some 40 miles north of Manaus, in the center of the Amazon basin. That month was extremely hot and dry, and Lapola noticed how it had sucked the moisture out of the forest. He recalls that the top 20 inches or so of the soil was bone dry — and this was in the central Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest, which normally gets almost 10 feet of rain every year. 

“I’ve never seen it like that, neither before nor later on,” Lapola says. “I remember seedlings drying out and dying, small saplings getting drier, the leaves browning.”

Lapola was witnessing first-hand the impacts of a devastating El Niño — a naturally occurring climate pattern, worsened by global warming, that brought unusually dry and hot conditions to the Amazon that year. El Niño-fueled droughts kill trees and suppress growth across the Amazon. Dead trees then release the carbon stored within them, and decreased tree growth means less carbon stored across the system as a whole. The result: The 2015 El Niño drought temporarily turned rainforests from carbon sinks into carbon sources, adding about 2.5 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere.

That could be a preview of what’s to come. The Amazon rainforest, known commonly as the lungs of the world, holds an estimated 150 to 200 billion metric tons of carbon in its vast reserves of tree and plant mass. Historically, it has represented around a quarter of the world’s terrestrial carbon sink. But the Amazon, like so many other places on Earth, is getting hotter and drier. Over the past century, the temperature in the region has risen by 1 to 1.5 degrees C (1.8 to 2.7 degrees F), and in some places, the dry season has lengthened from four to nearly five months. 

Workers cut down a large tree using a chainsaw in Acre, a state in northwestern Brazil. Ricardo Funari / Brazil Photos / LightRocket via Getty Images
All this has affected what Lapola calls tree demography — how long trees live, their mortality rates, and the growth of new trees. Though higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have caused tropical trees to take up more of the greenhouse gas through photosynthesis, an effect known as “carbon fertilization,” the Amazon carbon sink declined by a third from 2005 to 2015 when compared to the 1990s, mostly a result of increased tree mortality, and a fifth now acts as a carbon source. Now, some models predict that the Amazon will become a permanent source of carbon emissions by 2035, further contributing to climate change.  

Climate change isn’t the only factor that might push the Amazon toward a tipping point; deforestation also plays a role. Cattle ranchers and farmers have been cutting down large swaths of the rainforest, carving out a portion roughly the size of Connecticut last year. Much of the moisture in the Amazon comes from the trees themselves. They suck up water from the soil through their trunks — like liquid through a straw — and exhale it into the atmosphere through little pores on the undersides of leaves in a process known as transpiration. Transpiration cools the rainforest and produces rainfall. So if the forest is cut down, the surrounding area dries out. 

In 2018, Thomas Lovejoy, an environmental scientist at George Mason University in Virginia, and Carlos Nobre, a senior scientist at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo in Brazil, raised the alarm, estimating that if 20 to 25 percent is deforested, a tipping threshold may be crossed, transforming the Amazon into a savanna. That’s an alarming estimate, given that 15 to 17 percent of the Amazon has already disappeared, with Brazil under nationalist leader Jair Bolsonaro leading tropical forest losses worldwide in 2019. The country led the world in losing tropical forest again in 2020. Lapola says that in the Amazon, “deforestation comes together with global climate” and threatens to push the region past a dangerous tipping point, a risk not just for the health of the rainforest but for the whole planet. 

What can we do?

Protesters call for climate action in New York City’s Battery Park during the 2019 Youth Climate Strike. John Lamparski / WireImage / Getty Images
As coral reefs dissolve, Antarctica melts, and vast swaths of rainforest disappear, the world already seems to be headed down a dark path: 2 or 3 degrees C (3.6 or 5.4 degrees F) of warming; land, sea, and ice fundamentally transformed; and the consequences playing out on coastlines and in city neighborhoods thousands of miles away.

But Jacquelyn Gill, the University of Maine paleoclimatologist, does worry that too much focus on tipping points could backfire. It’s a sentiment echoed by the glaciologist Twila Moon. Tipping points are so scary that they could feed into a narrative of hopelessness. “We may not be able to predict exactly when some of these tipping points occur, but what we can do is control our actions, take ownership of our emissions,” Gill says.

And there are reasons for optimism. A few researchers have begun to study another set of tipping points — a group that, instead of spiraling the planet into an increasingly dangerous state, could help shift it back into balance. These so-called “social tipping points” follow the same basic principle as their counterparts in the natural world: First, change happens slowly, then all at once.

In 1907, some 140,000 Americans had a registered automobile; others got around cities by horse-drawn vehicles, bicycles, and trolley cars. By 1917, however, thanks to plummeting price tags for automobiles, there were almost 5 million cars on American roads. A more recent example: In 2003, no state in the country legally recognized gay marriage. Twelve years later, after a dramatic shift in public opinion and a ruling by the Supreme Court, same-sex marriage was legal in all 50.

“Fast change can happen,” says Ilona Otto, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Otto and 13 other scientists released a paper last year arguing that several such social tipping points could drive a rapid increase in initiatives aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions. Some of them are concrete and obvious — a drop in renewable energy prices, for example, such that solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels. Others are more abstract, like a shift in public attitudes toward seeing fossil fuels as fundamentally immoral. 

Most social tipping points are hard to measure, and even harder to predict. But there are signs that they may be slowly approaching. In 2009, a new solar farm cost 223 percent more than a new coal plant. Today, those numbers have roughly flipped. That means that one of Otto and her colleagues’ key thresholds is within reach: In many regions, renewables are now a cheaper source of energy than fossil fuels.

At the same time, the movement to divest university endowments from fossil fuels, combined with high-profile climate protests by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and organizing by other young people, has already contributed to a growing sense, especially among younger millennials and Generation Z, that fossil fuel use is unethical. Some people have begun to avoid flying due to “flygskam,” or “flight shame,” over the airline industry’s sky-high carbon footprint; even oil and gas giants now feel the need to advertise their promises to bring their emissions to zero by 2050. In the U.S., youth activism sparked a conversation — and then a movement — around the idea of a clean energy-focused Green New Deal. 

It’s hard to say whether these trends will continue. But they provide reason to hope that we’ll hit these more virtuous tipping points before the catastrophic ones. “Hopefully, these tipping points will start to accumulate,” Otto says, “and then come together as an avalanche.”

This story was reported and written by Alexandria Herr, Shannon Osaka, and Maddie Stone. Videos were produced by Daniel Penner and Jesse Nichols. Jacky Myint handled design and development. Teresa Chin led the art direction. Illustration was done by K. Amelia Bates. Jacob Banas, Mignon Khargie, Myrka Moreno, and Christian Skotte did promotion and additional production. ...Read More

This project was edited by Katherine Bagley, Matt Craft, Maddie Stone, and Nikhil Swaminathan. It was copy edited by Kate Yoder and fact checked by Ysabelle Kempe.
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This Week's History Lesson:
When Workers Swapped Segregation for Solidarity
Toni Gilpinen
Labor Notes

April 01, 2022 - Solidarity: we celebrate it in song, emblazon it on picket signs, and insert the word into Twitter hashtags. Inducing workers to overcome divisions and unite as a class, however, is far easier said (or sung about) than done. In our current polarized climate, solidarity may seem like an especially elusive goal.

But as a historian I can say: for organizers things have been tougher. In late 1946, corporate giant International Harvester (IH) opened a tractor factory in Louisville, Kentucky, joining the exodus of capital to the low-wage, and far less unionized, South. The Farm Equipment Workers (FE), one of the industrial unions that arose during the 1930s, already represented IH workers in Chicago and other Midwest locations.

In Louisville the FE—as opposed to the other unions competing for recognition at the new IH facility—made interracial equality central to its organizing drive. This was a risky strategy in still-segregated Louisville, since the vast majority of the 7,000 employees at the plant were to be white, steeped in the toxic traditions of white supremacy.

“We had hillbillies, that’s all we had,” said Jim Wright, one of the first Black employees at the Louisville plant. “And those kind of guys were real racist.”

The day-in, day-out "lived solidarity" that won raises and broke down barriers of segregation comes to life in Annabelle Heckler’s new comic “Go Places Together.”

Yet in mid-1947 the FE handily won the representational election at the Louisville plant. The FE local there would go on to prove exceptionally cohesive and combative, as workers regularly stood together and struck back against IH management. They took their struggle for justice into the community, as FE members, both Black and white, battled segregation in Louisville’s parks, hotels, and hospitals. And they defied social norms, as Black and white workers from the IH plant began socializing together off the job.

In the Jim Crow-era South, the FE had instilled in its members what Wright called “a religious feeling of them sticking together.” How was this possible?

UNFETTERED DISCUSSION

The answer lies in the radical ideology that defined the FE. Many of its key leaders, both national and local, were connected to the Communist Party. The FE’s left-wing orientation resulted in a demonstrable commitment to racial equality, especially noteworthy in a union with a membership that was 85 percent white.

The FE fought to open skilled jobs to African Americans and won contract terms like plant-wide seniority that most benefited Black workers. From 1946 on, the FE’s leadership included a Black executive board member and a Black vice president. That was a track record unmatched at the time, even by unions that had many more African Americans in their ranks.

This helps explain Black support for the FE, but these same achievements could have alienated racist whites. To win them over, FE organizers in Louisville stressed the benefits that only solidarity could achieve. “The Southern bosses had for generations played white against Negro,” FE literature read. “There was a direct connection between this and the fact that Southern workers were the lowest paid in the country.”

However, the union did more than just pass out flyers. At frequent meetings, “it wasn’t just up-front stuff, of the organizer giving big speeches,” said Sterling Neal, a Black worker who became a leader of the Louisville FE. Rather, “workers were encouraged to discuss freely the questions they had on their mind.

“Sometimes there was objection openly on the part of white workers to the union’s policy of no discrimination,” Neal said, but “on many occasions, the white workers who understood this question a little better challenged them on the floor.” These unfettered, sometimes difficult conversations solidified Black and white support for the union.

LIVED SOLIDARITY

But sustaining solidarity requires regular practice. The left-wing FE eschewed cooperation with management in favor of constant confrontation, and FE members engaged in exceptionally high levels of walkouts between contracts; the Louisville plant became especially strike-prone.

These actions proved effective at safeguarding and improving wages and working conditions. As Black and white workers walked off the job together, interracial unity became not an abstract construct but a regular exercise that delivered tangible benefits.

The radical FE modeled what could be called “lived solidarity”: the belief that day-in, day-out collective struggle—not just sloganeering—is essential to forging indivisible working-class power. Through it the FE profoundly transformed workers who had been “real racists”—the sort that some today might label “deplorables.”

That was no easy task then, and it isn’t now. But the FE’s example makes clear that with a mix of persistence, patience, and rank-and-file militancy, it can be done.

You can learn more about the FE in Toni Gilpin’s book The Long Deep Grudge: A Story of Big Capital, Radical Labor, and Class War in the American Heartland. ...Read More
These titles will be released in 2022, but you can order them from Hard Ball Press just in time for the holidays!

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As they stand up, slow down, form unions, leave an abusive relationship or just stir up good trouble, the characters in this multi-generation novel entertain and enlighten, make us laugh and rage, and encourage us to love deeply, that we may continue the fight for justice.

"So much fiction is about escape and fantasy, but these powerful Tales of Struggle will enrich our real and daily lives."  ─ Gloria Steinem 

“What a wonderful story of class, class struggle and regular people. The story is about struggle and change, but also about joy and humor. Great work! ─ Bill Fletcher, Jr., author of Solidarity Divided 

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México Responds to the Crisis in Ukraine
WEEKLY BULLETIN OF THE MEXICO SOLIDARITY PROJECT
Pedro Gellert lives and works in México City. A veteran activist in global solidarity circles, he’s worked to defend Cuba’s sovereignty and helped found the Coordinadora de Solidaridad con Palestina. Gellert has also been an active contributor to the México Solidarity Project. Gellert currently edits Morena’s international bulletin for Morena, but he speaks here as a participant in and keen observer of the Mexican left.

All nations look at other nations through the lens of their own histories. How does the world look from México’s vantage point?

The people of México haven’t fully controlled their own destiny since the Spanish colonization began 500 years ago. México today is much smaller and poorer than its “Big Brother” next door. That “Big Brother” seized more than a third of its territory in 1848 and, since then, has forcibly underdeveloped México. You can hardly find a Mexican who doesn’t carry some historic resentment toward the US. An extreme sensitivity about national sovereignty has become part of our Mexican national culture. So, from its own painful experience, México stands firmly against the forced annexation of the territory of one nation by another. But México also views any actions by the US with suspicion.

What has Mexico’s relationship been with the Soviet Union and then with Russia?

In 1924 México became the first country in the Americas to recognize the Soviet Union. In fact, the first Soviet ambassador to México would be the famous Russian revolutionary and Marxist theorist Alexandra Kollontai. To maintain as much independence from the US as possible, México has always wanted friendly relations with all the countries of the world. Even the Mexican bourgeoisie has been open to relations with communist countries.

Like most of Latin America, México never had a hardcore Cold War mentality. Broad sectors of Mexican society didn’t see the Soviet Union as an “enemy,” in part because the Soviets gave support to Cuba and other national liberation struggles. Mexicans have sympathy and admiration for the Cuban Revolution. During the Cold War era, many Mexican young people went to the USSR to study, and relations between the two countries almost always remained fraternal.

But now Russia has encroached on Ukrainian territory. What position is AMLO taking?

First, AMLO has categorically rejected the invasion. Second, he’s calling for a peaceful settlement. Third, in the UN Security Council, México voted in support of the resolution condemning the invasion and, in the General Assembly, co-sponsored a resolution with France condemning Russia’s actions. At the same time, México opposes sanctions and refuses to break relations with Russia and opposes U.S. attempts to drag it into the conflict. México is no one’s colony, AMLO publicly and vigorously proclaims. ...Read More
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Karl Marx's ideas are a common touchstone for many people working for change. His historical materialism, his many contributions to political economy and class analysis, all continue to serve his core values--the self-emancipation of the working class and a vision of a classless society. There are naturally many trends in Marxism that have developed over the years, and new ones are on the rise today. All of them and others who want to see this project succeed are welcome here.

CURRENT FEATURE: A 4-PART STUDY OF THE SHAPING OF THE RUST BELT WORKING CLASS. From the settlers to the present, and how its consciousness is conflicted. Prepared by Carl Davidson, with some help from the DSA Rust Belt group.

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Film Review: 'You Won't Be Alone' is a Sensual and
Gory Shapeshifting Movie That Pushes Back at Society
Craving a tender, horror flick set in 19th-century Macedonia? Check out Goran Stolevski's feature directorial debut

By Gary M. Kramer
Salon.com

MARCH 31, 2022 - "You Won't Be Alone," the auspicious feature directorial debut by Goran Stolevski, is a tender folk horror film. More bloody than scary, and at times quite sexy, it often plays like a silent movie, with characters expressing their emotions as they wander through a magnificent rural landscape. (The film is subtitled, and the language is said to be authentic to the period). Stolevski employs a voiceover and tinkling piano score to create a mood more that is precious, but also dangerous. Yes, the sun-dappled farmland is gorgeous but there is a danger lurking at every turn. 

This unusual film is set in Macedonian mountain village in the 19th century where a mother is confronted with a horrible situation. Old Maid Maria (Anamaria Marinca of "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days") is a Wolf-Eateress whose skin looks like the arteries are on the outside. She wants the blood of newborn Nevena and agrees to take the child when she turns 16, but not without first sampling her. Sent to live in a cave for protection, Nevena (Sara Klimos) emerges as a teen, following Maria out in the world. Old Maid Maria teaches Nevena how to live, however, Nevena is a disappointment to Maria, and the teen rebels, hoping to break the prophecy. As is soon revealed, these "witches" can shapeshift into animals and other beings.

"You Won't Be Alone" takes its time telling this story, the origins of which are revealed late in the film. Stolevski immerses viewers in this fabulist world, and his intimate camerawork both follows the characters closely but also admires the wondrous scenery. While the story meanders, Stolevski does have a point: there are discussions of gender roles, such as how women should behave with (and without) men and thoughts about motherhood. There are also many scenes of entrails and bloodletting as Maria or other characters open their chests and remove their insides. 

When Nevena shapeshifts to Bosilka (Noomi Rapace) she comes to understand her powers, seducing a man and luring him for sex where she transforms him. There is a clear reference to vampirism here, with blood-drinking, sharpened fingernails (instead of fangs) and the idea of passing on a curse.

When Nevena becomes Boris (Carloto Cotta), she enjoys the privilege of being a man. Cotta's childlike expressions (which he perfected in "Diamantino") convey Nevena's adaptation. Moreover, the sexual scenes with Boris are quite erotic — he has strong urges — but his behavior forces the villagers to exorcise his demons, creating an allegory about sin.

As "You Won't Be Alone" continues, the film plays up the conventions of marriage as the recounting of Old Maid Maria's tale concerns her efforts to find a husband. There is a horrific episode that reinforces ideas of conformity, followed by a rather moving (and mostly wordless) love sequence between Biliana (Alice Englert) and Yovan (Félix Maritaud). These scenes are sensual but fleeting — the witch will always have her way.

Which makes Stolevski's film compelling but not necessarily suspenseful. While there is a strong sense of dread throughout, the motivation for all the violence, when revealed, seems underwhelming. Bad things do happen in "You Won't Be Alone," but the film deliberately lacks heightened energy. Instead the director relies on emotional connection which can be slippery given how impressionistic it is. The supernatural elements are quite atmospheric, with flesh being ripped, and yet, the horror feels muted. Stolevski's film may be too gory for the arthouse crowd and too arty for horror film fans. For some viewers, the parts will seem greater than the whole.

Likewise, while the filmmaker raises important points about patriarchy and society, he does not investigate them fully. This is good for letting viewers draw their own conclusions, but his approach may prompt some viewers to tune out. The sense of time and place is vivid, but the lack of a strong plot can be frustrating.

The visuals are certainly captivating, with images of Nevena in the cave, or men working in the fields. The copious nudity is also welcome for adding a warm, sensual element in what may be seen a harsh, unforgiving environment. But scenes where Boris helps a young boy tasked with splitting logs does not advance the plot or the film's point much. Stolevski could have tightened his film with some shrewd editing; the unhurried pace is fine, but his film feels overlong. 

 "You Won't Be Alone" is certainly worthwhile for transporting viewers, and it invites multiple readings. (One sequence feels like an homage to "Frankenstein." Other cinematic references abound.) Stolevski delivers on his promise — as evidenced by his fantastic shorts, especially "You Deserve Everything" and "Would You Look at Her" which won a prize at Sundance the year it screened — to be a filmmaker to watch. His film takes considerable risks but it does reward adventurous viewers. 

"You Won't Be Alone" is in theaters April 1. Watch a trailer for it below, via YouTube. ...Read More
Book Review: The Fifties:
An Underground History 

A different view of the decade


By Kathryn Hughes
The Guardian

April 6, 2022 - The 1950s have not had a good press. In the US the decade has long been synonymous with a retreat to political and social conservatism following the upheaval of the second world war.

Senator McCarthy and his House Committee on Un-American Activities is the obvious example here, but there are many more. Women who had taken men’s jobs during the hostilities reconvened in dormitory suburbs to nest, wear pointy bras and full skirts, and raise the next generation of patriotic Americans. Black servicemen who had fought alongside their white compatriots in Europe found themselves returning to a segregated south where they were required to sit at the back of the bus. The 50s, or to be more exact the period from 1946 to 1963, marked what Norman Mailer dubbed at the time the “years of conformity and depression”.

Except it didn’t, or at least not for everyone. As James Gaines shows in this revelatory study, beneath the Pleasantville surface of postwar America there churned all manner of resentment and refusal. Everywhere he looks, Gaines finds individuals who insisted on marching to their own drum, even when that brought them into direct and even dangerous conflict with the newly oppressive status quo. In the process, he sheds light on a whole range of underground movements tackling everything from race relations to working-class feminism by way of non-binary sexuality.

Gaines’s great skill is to use individual life stories to dislodge entrenched narratives about life in postwar America

He starts with Harry Hay, the British-born activist who was gay at a time when neither the political left nor right would have any truck with homosexuals. (Gaines gives a shocking example: when the concentration camps were liberated by the Aallies they did not set free all the prisoners with pink triangles. Those with convictions in the Nazi courts for so much as flirting with another man were required to serve out their sentences, with no credit for time served.) Hay was himself highly conflicted. Early on he had married a “boyish girl” on the advice of a psychiatrist and adopted two daughters in an attempt to “cure” himself. Only later did he start to go against the grain until, at the age of 38 in 1950, he set up the Mattachine Society to advocate for gay rights.

The wider point here is that there was nothing simple or obvious about being a progressive in the 1950s. Hay’s campaigning brought him into direct conflict with his former comrades in the Communist party, who declared homosexuality to be not only “deviant” and “perverted” but, worse still, an expression of “bourgeois decadence”. The Mattachine Society itself split between those conservatives who wanted to run it along the lines of AA (at one point it was going to be called Bachelors Anonymous) and those who were increasingly persuaded of the need for direct political action. Gaines sees his job as not to neaten Hay’s story, making it fit one shape or another, but to point up its idiosyncrasies instead. It is, he suggests, in the stumbling quality of Hay’s journey that we see true heroism, a full two decades before the Stonewall riots and Gay Liberation made it simpler, if not exactly easier, to be out and proud.

Gaines’s great skill is to use individual life stories, with all their messy contradictions, to dislodge entrenched narratives about life in postwar America. Particularly deft is his pairing of two thinkers who never met but whose writing about the frailty of the natural world echoed one another in uncanny ways. Rachel Carson was the popular science journalist whose lyrical account of America’s coastal wildlife The Sea Around Us (1951) was serialised in the New Yorker and remained in the New York Times bestseller list for 86 weeks. Norbert Wiener, meanwhile, was the MIT mathematical prodigy whose pioneering work in weapons guidance had contributed to the allies’ victory in the second world war.

Starting from radically different places, both Carson and Wiener came to the realization that humankind was dismayingly close to destroying itself. Carson’s final book was the apocalyptic Silent Spring (1962), in which she argued that America’s addiction to chemical pesticides was poisoning the ecosystem on which all life depended. Wiener, meanwhile, published a letter under the title A Scientist Rebels in the Atlantic Monthly in 1947, in which he warned of the government’s militarization of scientific research and announced his refusal to participate in projects that could lead to nuclear proliferation. Both Carson and Wiener were pilloried for their apparently abrupt shifts in thinking, and both died before they had any inkling that their radical changes of heart would mark the beginning of the modern environmental movement.

Gaines is a former editor at three magazines – Time, Life and People – whose titles, taken together, provide the key strands for his braided narrative history. By attending to the experience of historical actors as they move through the world, he builds an account that is full of the complexity of lived experience. The result may not make for a simple read, but it is an infinitely rich one.

 The Fifties: An Underground History by James R Gaines is published by Simon & Schuster (£20). To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply. ...Read More
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