Canadian Job Market Booms In West, Slumps In East, Gap To Widen: BMO

Research / Geographic Variation

Canada’s seemingly stable jobless rate is hiding widening disparities among cities (and provinces), according to BMO Capital Markets. The bank’s latest Labour Market Performance Ranking shows job markets in Western Canada are largely improving, while Eastern Canada—Southern Ontario in particular—dominates among the worst-performing cities. The bank warns this divergence won’t be resolved any time soon, and is expected to widen. 

After the initial post-pandemic boom that saw growth across all provinces, regional divergences are returning, says BMO. The bank sees Western Canada continuing to grow in the near-term, with Alberta and Saskatchewan forecast for at least 2% real GDP growth, a benefit driven by soaring oil prices and weaker exposure to tariff uncertainties.

Eastern Canada’s heavy exposure to a pricey housing downturn and population growth changes has turned into a slump. The bank is forecasting that real GDP in Ontario and Quebec will fall below the 1% national average. This has—and will continue to have—an impact on local job markets.

“In the job market, activity has seemingly gone quiet with employment growth up very modestly from a year ago and the jobless rate little changed. But there is churn below the surface, across industries, job types and regions. The latest Labour Force Survey results shine a clear light on the emerging regional cracks in the job market,” explains BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic.  

Resource-driven economies dominate the bank’s list, largely located in the Prairies. Four out of five of the top-ranking cities are in Alberta and Saskatchewan: Calgary (#1), Saskatoon (#2), Edmonton (#3), and Regina (#4). Rounding out the list is Sudbury (#5), one of the few Ontario cities to rank towards the top of the list.

Winnipeg ranks in the middle of the pack in 16th place, but ahead of Vancouver (21st), Ottawa (23rd), Montreal (25th) and Victoria (26th). 

The downturn is largely concentrated in real estate-heavy Southern Ontario. The province’s cities occupy 7 of the bottom 10 cities, and include: Toronto (#27), Kitchener (#29), Barrie (#30), St. Catharines (#31), Windsor (#32), and London (#33). While London is last, it does top one list: at 9.1%, the city’s unemployment rate is the highest of any city in Canada. That’s nearly 1 in 10 workers unable to find a job. 

Click here to access the: BMO Regional Labour Market Report Card | April 10, 2026

$5,000 Incentive to Bring Trained Early Childhood Educators Back to the Sector 

Education / Employment

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The Manitoba Government is rolling out a new $5,000 Recruit‑Back Incentive aimed at bringing trained Early Childhood Educators (ECEs) back into the province’s licensed non‑profit child‑care system. The program targets ECE II and ECE III–classified workers who have been out of the sector for at least two consecutive years and are prepared to return to full‑time employment beginning June 1, 2025. Funding is provided through the Canada‑Manitoba Canada‑Wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreement.

Prospective applicants must submit their Recruit‑Back Incentive application by January 1, 2027. Those still seeking work can use the Manitoba Child Care Search tool to find openings in licensed non‑profit centres and homes across the province.

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE

Federal investment boosts nuclear supply chain in Saskatchewan

Utilities / Economic Development

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The Government of Canada has announced $625,100 in federal support for Saskatchewan Industrial and Mining Suppliers’ Association Inc. (SIMSA), the Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries (OCNI), and Southeast Techhub Incorporated (SETH). This support will help advance nuclear supply chains in Saskatchewan. The Government of Saskatchewan is contributing $286,000 through Crown Investments Corporation.

Saskatchewan’s nuclear energy potential stems from its capacity in research, testing and natural resources, especially abundant, world-class uranium. The nuclear sector will create opportunities for businesses specializing in a range of activities—from SMR design and engineering to component manufacturing, plant construction and operations, and specialized services such as quality assurance and environmental management. Saskatchewan will need approximately 2,500 to 3,500 skilled workers, mostly in the trades, to build and operate nuclear power plants in the province. Additional jobs will be created in the nuclear supply chain across Saskatchewan.

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CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE

Canadian Job Development Network

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9 ways to turn LMI into employment outcomes

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This week for

#MotivatingMondays, we talked about how labour market information can be valuable to job developers and other employer engagement professionals. LMI is very much an untapped resource of business and economic activity that leads to ‘emerging job opportunities’. We discussed the importance of LMI and how critical it is to apply for jobs before the employer has even thought to place the advertisement.

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IN CASE YOU

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Read the Apr. 7th Job Development Pulse

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Watch it on Youtube

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We make these sessions available EVERY WEEK on YouTube and most podcast platforms for people who can't attend in person. This is a sequel every week and just as enjoyable as the Super Mario Galaxy Movie.

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Email:

csaintcyr

@labourmarketsolutions.ca

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Website: 

www.JobDevelopment.org

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