Alberta's economy remains resilient amid geopolitical turmoil

Economic Outlook / Job Creation

Ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty continues to create a challenging backdrop for Alberta businesses and consumers. At the same time, Alberta’s economy has remained resilient, and is expected to continue to grow faster than the national economy.  

According to ATB Financial’s Economic Outlook released today, Alberta’s real GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised to 2.7 per cent, up from the 2.1 per cent projected in December. The upgrade reflects a combination of higher oil prices and stronger-than-expected economic performance in late 2025 and into early 2026. The report highlights uneven impacts across the country from the recent surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran. Alberta, the country’s largest oil producing province, is expected to outpace national GDP growth of 1.3 per cent.  

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global energy markets, prompting an upgrade to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to average US$75 per barrel this year (up from US$61 in the December forecast). While this price spike will drive a robust 6.0 per cent increase in Alberta's nominal GDP—resulting in a significant revenue increase for governments and corporations—it is not expected to translate into a traditional energy boom. Energy producers are maintaining capital discipline, holding real capital spending steady in the absence of clarity on new pipeline capacity or the duration of the price increase.

“While higher oil prices will drive a surge in revenues, we anticipate that producers will be cautious with their capital expenditures,” said Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial. “However, there is upside to our forecast if new pipeline projects proceed, creating a runway to invest in new growth projects.” 

Key highlights:

• Record Oil Exports to Asia: Despite cautious capital spending, Alberta's oil production remains at an all-time high. The Trans Mountain Expansion has successfully scaled oil shipments to Asia to over $9 billion in 2025.
• Rising Costs for Producers and Consumers: Global energy market disruptions are creating a "Hormuz premium" on energy and fertilizer, increasing operating costs for agricultural producers. Alberta's inflation is projected to average 2.5 per cent in 2026, with the Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates in 2026 at 2.25 per cent.
• Trade and Export Pressures: The province’s manufacturing and export sectors face persistent headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty, including softwood lumber duties and the upcoming Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review.
• Shifting Labour Landscape: Alberta's population growth is expected to slow to 1.1 per cent as federal policies reduce non-permanent residents. Job creation will remain strong in 2026 at 3.1 per cent before slowing in 2027, bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.4 per cent. 
• Diversified growth: Alberta is benefiting from activity across a wide range of sectors including tourism, tech, aviation, petrochemicals and agri-food processing.

"Despite better headline economic numbers in Alberta, we know the reality on the ground for many Albertans is far more complex," said Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial. "Higher prices for fuel and groceries are squeezing household budgets. A resilient job market, aided by both resource sectors and growth in new sectors, is helping cushion some of those impacts.”

For the full analysis, read the complete Alberta Economic Outlook.

Click here to download: Driving to the conditions: Alberta’s economy in 2026 and 2027

Canada’s trucking employment dropped 4% in February: THRC

Transportation / Trucking

Recent data from Trucking HR Canada (THRC) shows that current economic conditions continue to have an impact on trucking and logistics.

Employment levels in the sector declined by 30,500 positions or 4.0 % in February 2026 compared to February 2025. Among transport truck drivers, job losses were even higher: down 5.5%.

Across all industries in Canada, employment stayed relatively stable, up 0.02% in February 2026 compared to February 2025.

“The trucking and logistics sector continues to experience labour market changes during the current economic conditions,” says Craig Faucette, THRC Chief Operating Officer. “THRC is actively supporting employers with labour market insights that inform strategic decisions, along with workforce solutions that help build a resilient, skilled workforce.”

Unemployment rates for the trucking and logistics industry rose more than in general in Canada — up from 4.8% in February 2025 to 5.2% in February 2026. For transport truck drivers, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.7% in February 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from February 2025.

More details:

• Year-over-year employment in the Canadian trucking and logistics sector declined 4.0% in February 2026, with 30,500 jobs lost compared to February 2025
• Employment of transport truck drivers fell by 18,000 jobs from February 2025 to February 2026, a decline of 5.5%
• The number of active job seekers in the trucking and logistics sector rose to 40,200 in February 2026, up 3.2% year-over-year
• In February 2026, there were 18,700 unemployed drivers actively seeking work, which was roughly the same as in February 2025
• Unemployment rates rose across the trucking and logistics sector and in the transport truck driver occupation, reaching 5.2% and 5.7% respectively
• The unemployment rate for all industries across Canada remained largely unchanged year-over-year, up slightly to 6.7% in February 2026

THRC tracks labour market data and delivers essential labour market intelligence to help decision makers tackle workforce challenges and skill gaps — hoping to ensure Canada’s trucking and logistics sector stays competitive, resilient, and ready for the future. To learn more, visit: Trucking HR Canada 

Canadian Job Development Network

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Transactional vs. Relational Networking

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This week for

#MotivatingMondays, we explored how networking is becoming more transactional. It seems as though both employers and job seekers have a low opinion of how networking is evolving. According to a recent survey by Harris Poll, 70 per cent of Canadian hiring managers and 76 per cent of job seekers say networking today feels more like a business transaction than a genuine personal connection. We discuss this and how job seekers can convert networking opportunities from being transactional and make them more relational.

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IN CASE YOU

MISSED IT

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Read the Mar. 30th Job Development Pulse

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Watch it on Youtube

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We make these sessions available EVERY WEEK on YouTube and most podcast platforms for people who can't attend in person. This could be a great diversion from wondering why Mark Carney was at the Junos and why was he sitting with Joni Mitchell? 

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Email:

csaintcyr

@labourmarketsolutions.ca

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Website: 

www.JobDevelopment.org

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9 ways you can use LMI to connect with employers

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