The Market Update by Tim
Stocks across the globe continued to move higher in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 6% for the period. It’s remarkable to think that U.S. stocks have now rebounded more than 70% from the lows of last year.
The economy is healing and seems poised to take off. A recent jobs report far exceeded expectations and unemployment continues to fall. March data showed the strongest manufacturing growth in over 37 years. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting global growth of 5.5% this year compared with a 3.5% drop last year, while some economists see 7% growth possible for the U.S. in 2021.
It would seem to be a perfect scenario for owning stocks, and that certainly could be the case. However, it’s good to remember there are plenty of risks that remain (and of course, that market risk never actually does go away).
What could possibly go wrong? Rising bond yields have some concerned, as higher yields make stocks less attractive. A modest uptick in prices has brought inflation back into view, as we know that a little inflation is good but too much is really bad. And though it may seem counterintuitive, a recovery that happens too rapidly could also be a problem for stocks, causing the Federal Reserve to change the game plan and begin tightening early to cool things down. Those are just a few known risks. The scarier risks are those we can’t anticipate.
None of this is to say that stocks can’t or won’t do well going forward. The upshot is we simply don’t know how the economic recovery will play out. Sometimes things look very rosy and don’t quite live up to expectations, while other times positive surprises are the big story. That’s just the nature of investing. We should simply appreciate the nice gains that stocks have provided in recent months, while maintaining a diversified portfolio in preparation for the inevitable rough patch that lies somewhere down the road.