Landmark Wealth Management, LLC

Registered Investment Advisor

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Greetings! Although Punxatawny Phil did his best to keep spring from coming, the weather has warmed and spring has sprung! The season’s changes have conveniently coincided with changes and volatility in the market as the high flying tech stocks of the Magnificent 7 have cooled off tremendously compared to the rest of the market (although for Mag 7 stalwart TSLA I’m sure many would prefer the stock “cooling” than their Cybertruck being set on fire). While the Magnificent 7 and S&P 500 have had a rough start to the quarter, value stocks and international stocks have gotten off to a hotter start which is a welcome sight for anyone with a diversified portfolio. The performance of international stocks is something to monitor in the coming months because (as we wrote in our article here) cycles between international equity outperformance and domestic equity outperformance are typically years long cycles, and domestic equities have been outperforming international ones for close to a decade now. 

President Trump’s tariff talk has resulted in a level of blanket tariffs not seen since the early 1930s (for more details on this as well as their firm's opinion click here to check out Fidelity's outlook) and as a result the market has seen some volatility that may be linked to this. While inflation remains below 3%, strong jobs numbers and a resilient consumer base that is still spending may make it difficult for the Fed to actually make the two rate cuts that are projected this year so we will have to wait and see how that plays out as economist forecasts on the direction of rate movements have often proven to be unreliable.  

On the fixed income front, bonds have had a mixed start to the year, but if the Fed is indeed able to cut rates once or twice within the next year bonds should be able to offer the best of both worlds as investors will see some nice appreciation while still being able to clip a relatively attractive coupon.

We give you a deeper insight into our thoughts on the past quarter and an outlook for Q2 further below. If you would like, we also have a link to Nasdaq's economic and market outlook for 2025 (click here), and Morningstar's review of Q1 2025 (click here).

In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:

• Our investment topic this issue is: "Feast or Famine: Markets are Unpredictable."

• Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press



• Our new ADV for 2025

• An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...

• A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter

• Upcoming Economic Calendar

You will find past investment articles, by clicking the Articles tab above, or directly on our website, found under Periodicals. 

If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.

Investment Topic

"Feast or Famine: Markets are Unpredictable."

For our investment topic, "Feast or Famine: Markets are Unpredictable" we give our thoughts and suggestions. To learn more, please click here.



Please note - this investment topic, as well as past investment topics, can be found on our website under the Articles tab, or you can click here.

Landmark Wealth Management Quotes in the Press

The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.

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From an article on the website MarketWatch: "‘I feel like I’m in trouble.’ I’m 74 with $1.7K a month in income and $150K in savings. But my house isn’t paid off and I’m still working. Now what?" To access this article, please click here.

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From an article on the website AOL, "What happens to your investment accounts after you die?". To access this article, please click here.

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From an article that was on the website MarketWatch: "‘‘I can’t seem to pull the trigger.’ I’m a widow, age 67, with no mortgage and $4M – but 65% of that is in stocks. Am I doing it wrong?". To access this article, please click here.

Our Annual ADV

As per Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requirements, attached is our annual ADV brochure.  To access this, please click here. If you would like us to email or mail a hard copy, please feel free to call/email us to let us know.

Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity

Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective:

Well it has certainly been an eventful start to 2025. As winter has ceased and spring has sprung, the market has faced a fair amount of volatility. Where we go from here is hard to predict but there’s certainly much to go over from the past 3 months.  

The Fed left rates unchanged in Q1 2025 and the prognosis for the year also remained unchanged. The Fed and market prognosticators both believe that two rate cuts will come some time later in the year although views still differ on the size and timing of these cuts. Inflation ticked up ever so slightly to 2.8% this quarter (up from 2.7%) though things looked worse in January when inflation was 3.0%. That said, any uptick in inflation when paired with the strong jobs numbers and consumer spending numbers seen this quarter is going to make executing the two projected cuts rather tricky for the Fed to pull off. 

Looking at equities, the S&P 500 had an extremely tumultuous quarter and closed down a little under 5%. Mid-caps and small-caps were also hit hard by the market volatility as the Russell Mid-Cap Index was down almost 4% and the Russell 2000 (small-cap) was down nearly 10% for Q1. International stocks served as a sorely needed bright spot as the MSCI EAFE (international equities index) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted positive returns of about 6% and around 2.5% respectively. 

Bonds were a somewhat mixed bag of an asset class this quarter although there was slightly more good than bad. On the positive side The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index posted a gain of nearly 2%. Unfortunately, Muni-bonds were in the red and they posted a loss of a little over 1% according to the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. Treasuries were also mixed with the brightest spot being the 3 Month T-Bill which finished Q1 2025 up a touch over 1% 

In our last newsletter we addressed that the biggest question on the mind of most investors was what a second Trump presidency would look like. While that is a fairly complex question, Q1 2025 has certainly given us some clarity on what the shape of Trump’s second presidency will look like and provided an answer to one of the biggest outstanding issues from the campaign trail; how will the current administration use tariffs? On April 2nd a series of tariffs were enacted by the Trump administration that raised the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to 26% as a result of a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, a 25% tariff specifically on automobiles and targeted higher tariffs on countries with a large trade deficit with the U.S. such as China (for more on the specifics of these tariffs and their firm outlook click here to read this Fidelity article). This is a level that  hasn’t been seen since the beginning of the 1930s. 

Generally the market likes clarity and one of the largest outstanding questions for investors and prognosticators has been whether Trump would use tariffs as a bargaining chip or whether he would implement them on the scale he had been discussing. That said, the market has not reacted well to this news and there are now added uncertainties as the market is now trying to effectively price in how other countries will react to these tariffs. Although this may sound negative (and in the short to medium term it may very well be) it does bear repeating that the volatility in the market this quarter and the volatility specifically around tariffs is no reason to abandon or stray from the normal asset allocation strategy we recommend. While the reasons for volatility always frighten and change, remaining diversified and continuing to stay invested in the market is preferable to panicking and selling out, no matter how scary or different the cause of the volatility is. 

If it has been a while since we last sat down and went over your own personal numbers, we encourage you to make an appointment and meet with us for a review. 

Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.

Major Market Indices

Below is the Q1 '25 price return performance of some of the major indices:

On The Investment Horizon

Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar 

• First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.

• Friday April 18th - Good Friday: US Markets Closed.
• Wednesday, April 30th - Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)

• Tuesday, May 6th - Wednesday, May 7th: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
• Wednesday, May 7th - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM
• Monday, May 26th- Memorial Day: US Markets Closed.
• Thursday, May 29th - Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)



• Tuesday, June 17th - Wednesday, June 18th: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
• Wednesday, June 18th - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM
• Thursday, June 26th - Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised)

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General & Contact Information

For our clients - You should have received your statement directly from our account custodian, Charles Schwab& Co. If you have not, please let us know so that we may investigate the matter. Please review your statement carefully and let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Also, as a reminder, our office has a nice sized conference room to use for our meetings and updates. If you do not feel comfortable coming into our office or if it is inconvenient, we recommend that we set up a Zoom or teleconference call to update your planning numbers, especially if it has been more than a year since we have last done so. Please feel free to reach out.

For everyone - If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:

Sincerely,

Brian Cohen, CCO; email: brian@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-923-2487

Chris Congema, CFP®; email: chris@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-923-2486

Joe Favorito, CFP®; email: jfavorito@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-930-5336

Jim Millington, CFP®; email: jim@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-470-0765

Aaron Belletsky; email: aaron@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-982-8049

Direct office email: info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com 

Direct phone: 631-923-2485

This communication is from Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com.