| | 631-923-2485; 888-342-6436 | | Investment Newsletter - Q3 2025 | | |
Greetings! Another eventful quarter has concluded and the recent heat wave (at least for our Northeastern based readers) has subsided. Eventful may even be underselling just how up and down this last quarter was. Following “Liberation Day” the market, as measured by the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% from its February high, only to completely reverse course and climb nearly 25% from its April bottom. This sudden reversal actually marks the quickest turnaround on record (just 89 days) from a drop of at least 15% to a new market high, on record.
International equities continued to impress, although there were plenty of geopolitical headlines to navigate through, namely another conflict between Israel and Iran which has got to be in the running for quickest cease fire agreement then violation on record, much to the current president’s chagrin, although at least as of this writing the ceasefire is still in effect.
Inflation remained both fairly stable and low throughout the quarter hovering between 2.4 and 2.5%. While that bodes well for potential rate cuts in the future, consumer spending and job growth both were larger than anticipated which may make it difficult for the Federal reserve to find the opportunity to cut rates. With that being said, attempting to predict exactly when a rate cut will occur is largely an exercise in futility. In the absence of rate cuts, fixed income chugged along to a slightly positive quarter and investors are still able to enjoy a relatively attractive yield while rates remain at current levels.
We give you a deeper insight into our thoughts on the past quarter and an outlook for Q3 further below. If you would like, we also have a link to Interactive Broker's economic and market outlook for Q3 2025 (click here), and Russell Investment's mid-year market outlook for 2025 (click here).
In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:
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Our investment topic this issue is: "Buy Term & Invest the Difference: Does it Make Sense?"
- Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
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Introducing our newest member: Stuart Lempert, CWS®
- An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...
- A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter
- Upcoming Economic Calendar
You will find past investment articles, by clicking the Articles tab above, or directly on our website, found under Periodicals.
If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.
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"Feast or Famine: Markets are Unpredictable."
For our investment topic, "Buy Term & Invest the Difference: Does it Make Sense?" we give our thoughts and suggestions. To learn more, please click here.
Please note - this investment topic, as well as past investment topics, can be found on our website under the Articles tab, or you can click here.
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Landmark Wealth Management Quotes in the Press | | |
The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.
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From an article on the website MarketWatch: "‘‘I don’t know how to channel that anger.’ I’m 55 and had $2.7M in November. I asked my adviser to pull me from the market ASAP, but he didn’t. I’m down 10%. Now what?" To access this article, please click here.
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From an article in Barron's, "Foreign Stocks Are Beating the U.S. Market. Here’s How Much You Should Have in Your Portfolio.". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article that was on the website MarketWatch: "This is what makes me think my financial adviser is ‘intolerable.’ But now what’s my move?". To access this article, please click here.
| Now Introducing Our Newest Member: Stuart Lempert, CWS® | |
Stuart is a Certified Wealth Strategist® with over three decades of experience in the financial services industry. He began his career in 1990, gaining early experience at boutique investment banking firms before joining Charles Schwab in 1997. Over the next 27 years, Stuart built a distinguished career at Schwab, starting as an Investment Specialist and rising through the ranks to become a Senior Investment Consultant and ultimately a Branch Manager.
In his early years at Schwab, Stuart worked closely with individuals, families, and businesses to develop personalized wealth management strategies. His expertise spans financial planning, retirement planning, tax strategies, investment management, and estate planning. As a Senior Investment Consultant, he specialized in complex financial solutions tailored to high-net-worth clients.
Stuart went on to manage several Schwab branches, including the flagship Midtown Manhattan office, overseeing more than $18 billion in assets under management (AUM). He was instrumental in developing and leading a regional training program for over 200 consultants, focusing on advanced financial planning and client engagement strategies. He also played a key role in testing and refining Schwab’s planning and relationship management tools.
After spending many years in leaderships Stuart decided to return to his core passion: working directly with clients and their families. He joined Landmark because of their mission to deliver personalized, high-impact financial guidance with a focus on financial planning and wealth management.
Beyond his professional achievements, Stuart is deeply committed to community service. He is a Trustee of a charitable foundation, serves on the President’s Advisory Council at Northwell Cohen Children’s Medical Center, and sits on the Board of the Madison Square Boys & Girls Club.
He lives in Lake Success, NY, with his wife, Debbie, and is the proud father of Jordan, an investment banker, and Haylie, who is a social worker.
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Our Updated ADV
Since we have added a new member of our team and made a material change to our ADV, we must update and share our ADV brochure. attached is our updated ADV brochure. To access this, please click here. If you would like us to email or mail a hard copy, please feel free to call/email us to let us know.
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Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity | | Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective: | | |
Last quarter we began this section by commenting on the tumultuousness of the previous quarter. Well, as we look back on the previous three months it has once again been extremely eventful and there is much to discuss.
The Federal Reserve once again left rates unchanged in Q2 2025. Inflation remained low as it hovered between 2.4 and 2.5% for the majority of the quarter. While that might signal that a cut could be possible (which would certainly please the President) , resilient spending and employment numbers still make cuts a tricky proposition for the Fed.
Looking at equities, the S&P 500 had a historically up and down quarter (as mentioned earlier) but still managed to close the quarter up over 10%. US Small-Caps (as represented by the Russell 2000) were able to reverse their negative course from the previous quarter and ended Q2 up around 8%. The Russell Mid-Cap Index joined in on the party and also closed Q2 up over 8%. International equities continued to roar ahead as the MSCI EAFE (developed international equities index) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index each posted double-digit positive returns to add on top of their very strong start to the year.
Bonds, in contrast to equities, had a very flat quarter. On the positive end The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index was just barely positive while the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index was a notable laggard, finishing the quarter down over 1% which compounded an already rough start to the year for Munis.
At the end of Q1 2025 the question on the top of most investors' minds was how President Trump would implement tariffs (if at all) and what their effect on the economy and trade might be. The answer to that question varied about as widely as the equity returns did in Q2, depending on what day it was asked and answered. Ultimately, the thing the market dislikes the most is uncertainty, and once the fallout from “Liberation Day” and the subsequent tariff adjustments and removal of almost all of the reciprocal tariffs had settled, the market responded to the newfound clarity with a huge positive move. Whether the positive momentum is sustainable or not is really anyone’s guess, but it is a welcome sight to most investors. It bears repeating that this sudden surge in equities is not a reason to throw out your financial plan and chase excess returns while increasing risk. Just as we urged you to not drastically decrease your equity exposure, or sell out of the market last quarter, we again urge you to not attempt to massively increase your exposure to equities because of this sudden positive surge. Decisions on asset allocation should be based on long-term time windows and your personal financial planning data, not on short term trends and market moves.
Moving forward into Q3 the biggest question for most, at least domestically in the U.S. is likely to be how the market reacts to the probable passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, which has just passed through the Senate and is returning to the House of Representatives as of the writing of this newsletter. On the geopolitical front the conflict between Israel and Iran also represents some uncertainty in the market. While predicting the response to and way forward from each of these events is nearly impossible, if the first two quarters of this year have shown us anything, it’s that while short term uncertainty may cause volatility, the market itself is very resilient.
We would like to wish you all a very happy 4th of July weekend. If it has been a while since we last sat down and went over your own personal numbers, we encourage you to make an appointment and meet with us for a review.
| | Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns. | | Below is the Q2 '25 price return performance of some of the major indices: | |
On The Investment Horizon | | |
Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar
- First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.
- Friday, July 4th - Independence Day: US Markets Closed.
- Tuesday, July 29th - Wednesday, July 30th: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
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Wednesday, July 30th - Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)
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Thursday, August 28th - Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)
- Monday, September 1st - Labor Day: US Markets Closed.
- Tuesday, September 16th - Wednesday, September 17th: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
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Thursday, September 25th - Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised)
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General & Contact Information | | |
For our clients - You should have received your statement directly from our account custodian, Charles Schwab & Co. If you have not, please let us know so that we may investigate the matter. Please review your statement carefully and let us know if you have any questions or comments.
Also, as a reminder, our office has a nice sized conference room to use for our meetings and updates. If you do not feel comfortable coming into our office or if it is inconvenient, we recommend that we set up a Zoom or teleconference call to update your planning numbers, especially if it has been more than a year since we have last done so. Please feel free to reach out.
For everyone - If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
Sincerely,
Brian Cohen, CCO; email: brian@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-923-2487
Chris Congema, CFP®; email: chris@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-923-2486
Joe Favorito, CFP®; email: jfavorito@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-930-5336
Jim Millington, CFP®; email: jim@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-470-0765
Aaron Belletsky; email: aaron@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-982-8049
Stu Lempert, CWS®; email: stuart@landmarkwealthmgmt.com; phone: 631-485-3055
Direct office email: info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com
Direct phone: 631-923-2485 or 888-342-6436
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