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Registered Investment Advisor
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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Investment Newsletter - Q4 2024 | |
Greetings! The leaves have begun to change and Fall weather is here! In just a few weeks the looming Presidential Election will be completed. While the Presidential Election may be worrisome for many people, one thing that has remained true in this ever changing political landscape, is that the market, as a whole remains, politically unaffiliated. The data has shown time and time again that markets, over the long run, will continue to rise no matter which party wins the White House.
Speaking of the market, it was an extremely eventful quarter for both equities and bonds, capped off by a long awaited rate cut of 50-basis points in September. It seems that the positive updates on inflation (though it still has not hit the 2% Fed “target”) as well as the slight cooling of the jobs report was enough to galvanize the Fed into a larger cut than previously expected. On the equities front, the mega-cap Magnificent 7, while positive, didn’t dominate this quarter, and it also appears that the rest of the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are beginning to signal a broadening out. It was also finally a good quarter for more “value” oriented equities, which was a sight for sore eyes for many investors after the past few months (and years) of growth dominance. On the fixed income front, bonds received a decent jolt from the aforementioned rate cut and appear to have room to run ahead of them.
We give you a deeper insight into our thoughts on the past quarter and an outlook for the current quarter and year further below. If you would like, we also have a link to the Q4 2024 Global Market Outlook by Russell Investments with an in-depth look, click here (then click on the link that says Individual investor), or for a very brief Executive Summary, click here - (please note, after clicking, you may then need to click the link at the bottom of that page)).
In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:
- Our investment topic this issue is: "Elections - How Much Do They Matter?"
- Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
- An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...
- A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter
- Upcoming Economic Calendar
You will find past investment articles, by clicking the Articles tab above, or directly on our website, found under Periodicals.
If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.
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Investment Topic
"Elections - How Much Do They Matter?"
For our investment topic, "Elections - How Much Do They Matter?" we give our thoughts and suggestions. To learn more, please click here.
For other related articles on this topic, you can click here for an article from Hartford Funds, and click here for an article from First Eagle Investments.
Please note - this investment topic, as well as past investment topics, can be found on our website under the Articles tab, or you can click here.
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Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.
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From an article on the website MarketWatch: We are in our 50s and contributed to retirement ‘as best we could.’ While ‘we are not millionaires,’ we do have money set aside. But now what?" To access this article, please click here.
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From an article on the website GoBankingRates, "I’m a Financial Advisor: 3 Reasons My Retired Clients Are Concerned About a Trump 2024 Win". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article that was on the website GoBankingRates: "I’m a Financial Planner: Here’s What a Kamala Harris Presidency Would Mean If You Plan To Buy a House in 2025". To access this article, please click here.
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Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity | |
Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective: | |
As the leaves have begun to change, so too has the market and the economy, as a whole. Inflation and jobs numbers have, like the weather, cooled off recently, signaling that maybe the Fed is about to achieve the much-ballyhooed soft landing that many prognosticators have been calling for. That said, any optimism should be cautious as if there is anything easily predictable about the market, it is the fact that it is famously unpredictable.
Investors finally saw a rate cut in September which was not surprising. What surprised many was the size of the rate cut. Most had expected a cut of 25-basis points, instead investors awoke to a 50-basis point cut. The bond market continued its positive momentum from Q2 all throughout Q3 and especially after the rate cut. As of the end of the quarter the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index sat at a positive 2.55% total return for the year to date and had a positive 4.54% total return for Q3.
Looking at equities, the S&P 500 continued its strong year and closed up 5.53% for Q3 bringing it to up 20.81% on the year. While the S&P 500 had a great quarter it both wasn’t the top asset class and was carried by stocks other than the “Magnificent 7” which is certainly a welcomed sight for those who have been calling for a “broadening out” for the market. Mid-Cap stocks snapped back in a big way in Q3 after a lackluster Q2. The Russell Mid-Cap Index was positive 8.77% for the quarter. Small-caps and international stocks also posted some pretty large gains as well with the Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) posting a positive return of 8.90% for the quarter, while the MSCI EAFE (international equities index) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted returns of 6.65% and 7.79% respectively. The biggest positive mover was the DJ US Select REIT Index which entered the quarter with a negative YTD return but surged 14.49% to end with a positive 11.66% return for the year to date. There was one noticeable laggard for Q3 which was commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Index was down -0.64% although it remains slightly positive year to date.
As mentioned previously, the bond market was positive by a little over 4.5% in Q3. In addition to this, Muni-bonds also produced a good Q3 and the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index closed with a positive 2.04% total return for the quarter. Treasuries also underwent some changes due to the rate cut, and most significantly of all, the yield curve is no longer inverted, ending the longest yield curve inversion in U.S. history. The 3 Month T-Bill finished Q3 at 1.37% while the 2 year Treasury closed at a yield of 3.65%. The 10 year Treasury at a yield of just over 3.8%. An inverted yield curve is typically a recessionary indicator, so this un-inversion of the curve is a sight for sore eyes for many investors and market prognosticators. It is also a cautiously positive signal that perhaps the Fed will end up achieving its soft landing after all (authors note: I knocked on wood after typing this and encourage any readers to do so as well to avoid a jinx).
Looking forward to Q4 the biggest outstanding question in the minds of most investors is the same question as the rest of the country. Which is, “Who will win the U.S. Presidential Election?” This election cycle has been one of the more “eventful” ones in recent memory as it has produced a swap of the candidates in the incumbent party, multiple assassination attempts, a felony conviction, and too many zany and wacky headlines to even begin to mention. With that out of the way, no matter how nervous you are about the possibility of whichever candidate aggravates you more taking the White House, we always like to point out that the data is overwhelmingly consistent in showing that markets will continue to rise. There will likely be short term turbulence in the market after the election, and the fourth quarter of any year is generally the most volatile; however, the momentum observed in Q3 has been positive both for equities and fixed income. Fixed income especially, looks like it has plenty of room to run and if there is another rate cut in Q4 investors could see some returns in fixed income that could ease the pain of the bond-pocalypse that was 2022.
If it has been a while since we last sat down and went over your own personal numbers, we encourage you to make an appointment and meet with us for a review. Hopefully you have a happy Halloween and an even happier rest of the holiday season and Q4.
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Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns. | |
Below is the Q3 '24 price return performance of some of the major indices: | |
On the Investment Horizon | |
Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar
- First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.
- Wednesday, October 30th at 8:30AM - GDP, 3rd quarter (Advance Estimate).
- Tuesday, November 6th - Wednesday, November 7th: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Wednesday, November 7th - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM
- Wednesday, November 27th at 8:30AM - GDP, 3rd quarter (2nd Estimate)
- Thursday, November 28th- Thanksgiving: US Market's Closed
- Tuesday, December 17th - Wednesday, December 18th: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Thursday, December 19th at 8:30 AM - GDP, 3rd quarter (third estimate).
- Wednesday, December 25th- Christmas Day: US Markets Closed
- Wednesday, January 1st- New Years Day: US Markets Closed
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For our clients - You should have received your statement directly from our account custodian, Charles Schwab& Co. If you have not, please let us know so that we may investigate the matter. Please review your statement carefully and let us know if you have any questions or comments.
Also, as a reminder, our office (not so new any longer as we have been here over two years), has a nice sized conference room to use for our meetings and updates. If you do not feel comfortable coming into our office or if it is inconvenient, we recommend that we set up a Zoom or teleconference call to update your planning numbers, especially if it has been more than a year since we have last done so. Please feel free to reach out.
For everyone - If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
Sincerely,
Direct phone: 631-923-2485
This communication is from Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com.
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Landmark Wealth Management, LLC
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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