The Last Look Report

U.S. stocks opened higher at the open but took a quick nosedive into negative territory in the first hour of trading. Since then, the indices have bounced back from the quick price cut and are trading around even for the day.


The ACWX (I-fund) is off its highs yet has maintained a gain of over 0.5% for the day while U.S. indices stagger.


Bonds hold a gain of over 0.2% into the trade deadline.


TSP Talk AutoTracker Members


Five of the eight IFTs made today include 100% stock allocations. The other three see stock reductions, no stock allocations, and two top 50 members:



Top 50 member IFT today:


FordMan (35) moved 25% of their allocation out of stock funds and into the G-fund.


voodoostation (31) moved out of the G-fund and into F-fund.



Three top 50 members made an IFT after yesterday's Last Look Report:


Deldee (18) moved from the S-fund to the G-fund.


BigBully (23) moved out of the F-fund and into 50% C and 50% S-fund yesterday.


rayald (12) moved out of the I-fund and into 20% C and 80% S-fund yesterday.



Top Returns and Allocations


The I-fund has a 2025 return of over 10%. Meanwhile, the C and S-funds are down 3.3% and 6.3% for the year, respectively. That is vast gap in difference between U.S. stocks and the emerging markets fund. The I-fund tends to get overlooked by TSP investors who mostly use it as a supplementary investment and most don't touch it at all.


The I-fund's success still hasn't made it the most popular fund among the TSP Talk AutoTracker. Looking at active investors who have reacted to the markets this year, there are 377 members who have made at least one IFT so far in 2025. The current average I-fund allocation of those 377 members is only 9.5%. In comparison, the average C and S-fund allocations for this same group are both over 22%. The G-fund is the most held fund with an average allocation of 39.4%.


There are only eight AutoTracker members outperforming the I-fund for the year. These eight have a higher average I-fund allocation than the active members mentioned above, but they still hold more C or S-fund shares than I-fund shares collectively.


Average Allocation of the Top 8


G: 21.3%, F: 0.0%, C: 22.3%, S: 36.0%, I: 20.5%


Only three of the top 8 hold any I-fund shares. BHRUNIKH holds the most with a 100% I-fund allocation.


Fund Morning Performance

30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline:


The S&P 500 (C-fund) is down 0.1%


The DWCPF (S-fund) is down 0.1%


The ACWX (I-fund) is up 0.5%


The bond ETF BND (F-fund) is up 0.2%.


Click Here for Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I, and F-fund Tracking Indices.

Today's Headlines

Trump Says 80% Tariff on China 'Seems Right' - President Trump urged China to open up its markets to the U.S. and mooted a new tariff rate in two social-media posts.


China’s Exports to U.S. Plunge, in Sign of Bite From Trump Tariffs - China’s exports to the U.S. fell 21% in April due to tariffs, prompting a shift towards Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe, and Africa. Overall Chinese exports grew 8.1% in April, but economists expect further impact from tariffs, potentially hindering China’s GDP growth target.



Why This Stock-Market Bounce Won’t Hold - One way to think about the plunge and rebound in stocks since “Liberation Day” on April 2 is that beforehand investors thought a 10% tariff would be the worst case, and afterward they thought a 10% tariff was the best case. Stocks fell because tariffs were far bigger than expected, then recovered when tariffs were delayed and talks began.


Latest Forum Posts


tsptalk's Market Talk - Stocks are stalling at resistance, but not backing off yet and the indices are fairly flat in early trading. The charts may be suggesting a lull in the trade talks, and it may take another deal or two to get the resistance taken out.


JTH's Account Talk - IFT From 100C to 100G EoB Today. Chart Included.


coolhand's Account Talk - We have a big shift in the NAAIM reading this week. The mean average rose more than 21 pts and is now bullish. The bears went from fully short and fully leveraged last week to just half short with no leverage. The bulls are back to being fully long and fully leveraged.

TSP Share Prices


Last Look Report subscribers have exclusive access to a Last Look Report Thread on TSPTalk.com. If you are not signed up for the forum yet, you can do so here.


Also, as a Last Look subscriber, you can access the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, that include other Premium Members. You will need to have your own AutoTracker account as well. You can sign up for free here if you don't.


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Thomas A Crowley - tommyiv

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