The Last Look Report

Stock indices are having a decent morning, especially the DWPCF (S-fund). But some investors may be hesitant to trust the morning direction after yesterday's late weakness following the TSP trade deadline. Three top 20 members are confident enough to use their IFTs.

Read more about yesterday's mid-day hand back in:

TSP Talk Market Commentary

Fund Morning Performance

So far the morning has been a breeze for the small cap index DWCPF (S-fund). The index is up 1% and is just off its highs. Again, if yesterday's pattern continues today, we may be seeing an early high.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) lags small caps again. The index is up around 0.5%.

Forum member JTH points out weakness in the top S&P 500 companies to account for the discrepancy between large cap and small cap performance to start this week.

The ETF EFA (I-fund) lags the other two stock funds this morning. It is holding onto a gain of 0.4%.

Bonds are selling off. The bond ETF BND (F-fund) is down 0.3% with 30 minutes left until the trade deadline.

Click Here For Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I and F-fund Tracking Indices.

Market Catalysts

The market is shifting through economic data this morning. Investors have been worried a recession will accompany the high interest environment. So far today's economic reports have kept investors' fingers off the sell button.

TSP Talk AutoTracker Members

Nine TSP Talk AutoTracker members have made IFTs today. Money is flowing in and out of stocks funds, but the majority are buying increasing their stock exposure, especially the S-fund. Most of the stock fund buyers are top 20 members:

Top Performers IFTs

Pickles has been in the F-fund for most of June. Today they are moving into 100% S-fund. Pickles currently holds the 4th spot in the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings.

Similarly, Pokerstar629 has been in the G-fund for most of June. They are now jumping head first into the S-fund. Pokerstar629 is 5th in the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings.

Djlc86 was already fully invested in stocks, but was in the I-fund. Today they moved to 100% S-fund to join the other top performers. Djlc86 is ranked 11 in the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings.

Yesterday after the Last Look Report, Cash_Money moved 25% of their S-fund holdings into the G-fund. Cash_Money is ranked 21 in the TSP Talk AutoTracker standings.

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Today's Headlines

U.S. Home Prices Posted First Annual Decline Since 2012 in April - Home prices posted their first year-over-year price decline in 11 years in April, as higher mortgage rates made home purchases more expensive for buyers.

U.S. consumer confidence approaches 1-1/2-year high in June - "Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. "Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months."

US core capital goods orders beat expectations; shipments rise modestly Economy - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly rose in May, but the prior month's data was revised down, suggesting that businesses remained cautious about new capital investment because of higher borrowing costs and an uncertain economic outlook.

More News

Forum Posts

tsptalk's Market Talk I don't know if we should be as concerned about the PMO indicator crossover as the previous times because of the new positive trend and what looks like the end of a bear market, but it did just crossover again.

JTH's Account Talk - The Top-10 S&P 500 stocks reflects the recent short-term weakness in the markets. In particular, 3 large tech names which make up 13% of the S&P 500's weight, have shown the most weakness.

F-Fund - BND (F-fund) is clinging to the 50 and 200-day EMAs. Despite the bearish looking flag, the longer it hangs around the averages, the better the chance of a break-through.

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This newsletter was written by Thomas A Crowley (tommyiv). You can email me at tommy@tsptalk for any feedback or questions.

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