The Last Look Report

U.S. stocks opened higher to start the week but quickly slipped into negative territory.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) has just poked its head back into positive territory after spending most the morning in the red. The large cap index is up 0.1% as we approach the TSP trade deadline.


The DWCPF (S-fund) continues to severely lag the S&P 500. This small cap index is down 0.4% this morning after bouncing off its lows. The S-fund accumulated a 4.51% loss last week.


ACWX (I-fund) is down 0.2%


Bonds opened down but are now up more than 0.1%.


TSP Talk AutoTracker Members


Moves to the G-fund continue today with stocks down. So far, five members have moved to 100% G-fund today. Another member moved 40% into the G-fund.


Top 50-member susanmk1 (37) moved 20% from the G-fund to the F-fund.


Three members are increasing their stock exposure today. That includes one of 2024's top 10 members Cash_Money.


*(#) = Ranking among non-premium members



The Top Returns

Above are the top ten returns of 2025. These include nine members and one Premium Service, Intrepid Timer's Investment Strategies.


Coming into today, only 11 members outperform the I-fund for the year. They have mostly gotten there by staying out of the way of the recent pull-back. Below is the average allocation of these 11 members:


Average Allocation of the Top 138

(Includes today's IFTs) (Excludes Premium Service)


G: 81.8%, F: 0.0%, C: 4.5%, S: 13.6%, I: 0.0%


Interestingly, none of these top members currently hold any I-fund shares despite its recent outperformance over the other TSP funds.


AutoTracker trends show investors moving from the C and S-funds to the G-fund. Last week, non-premium members made 45 IFTs, increasing their G-fund allocation from 23.3% at the start of the week to 55.8% by the end. That shift is continuing today.



Fund Morning Performance

30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline:


The S&P 500 (C-fund) is up 0.1%


The DWCPF (S-fund) is down 0.4%


The ACWX (I-fund) is down 0.2%


The bond ETF BND (F-fund) is up 0.1%


Click Here for Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I, and F-fund Tracking Indices.

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Today's Headlines


U.S. Economic Growth Falls Back Below Average - Falling activity in production, and personal consumption and housing were to blame for the weaker activity at the start of 2025. By contrast, employment-related indicators gained steam, suggesting the jobs market remains robust.


What Do Mass Federal Layoffs Mean for the Labor Market? - America’s biggest employer, the federal government, is laying off workers in droves. Depending on how many, and which, jobs get cut, the blow to the U.S. job market could be merely glancing, or seriously damaging.


Stocks Have a Big, Expensive Problem - The gap between expected returns for large growth stocks that dominate stock markets today and cheaper alternatives has never been so big.

More News

Latest Forum Posts


tsptalk's Market Talk - Another failed Monday morning gap. It's too early to know if this is going to be a complete failure as initial early reversals don't always hold, but the last hour or half hour of trading is more indicative of investors' intentions. Then there's the Turnaround Tuesday phenomenon. Otherwise, the bears could take complete control.


JTH's Account Talk -There is a lot of red on the Top-10 S&P 500 stocks, but only Microsoft is deep in the lower range of its 1/3/6/13/26/52-Week price range.


Buyouts to nearly all federal workers? - I don't report to OPM and I don't work for Musk.

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