Call me old fashioned but I live in a world where I expect HMG to have a bit of a grip of things.
I may not like the grip. It might be too loose, to tight, I know, I’m difficult to please. But, I do have the view that even if I disagree, somewhere in government, there are people who know what they are doing.
Is that a forlorn hope? Am I naive?
After all, I’ve been at this game, policy watching, for a few years now and I should have a bit of a feel for what’s what. What’s right, what’ll work and what won’t.
I’ve seen ideas do the full circle. New lamps for old…
But, nothing prepared me for what I’ve just read.
Forgive me I’m going to start again. Ignore what you’ve just read… I’ll come back to it.
Here’s a question. What is the biggest problem facing the NHS?
It has to be workforce.
No people, no patients get treated. Not enough people, no new stuff can get done. No people, not enough people and the people we have, get fed up, leave and do something else.
Vocation can only take people so far. Vocation can only be exploited, so much.
So, back to my starting point… call me old-fashioned but I do secretly live in the belief that somebody, somewhere is sensible.
Now, let’s put these two things together.
There are enough people working in HMG, who know what they are doing and resolving the big issues of the day, like NHS workforce… will be sorted.
I got a far as the first couple of pages and came across a paragraph that I thought might have been left in by accident.
Some sort of joke? This is a report about ‘increasing the number of nurses, in England by 50,000, by the end of the Parliament…’
… and this is what it says;
‘The numbers [in this report] should not be taken as precise estimates, as contributing factors will change over the remainder of the programme: they are planning assumptions against which an iterative programme will adapt as more information becomes available.’
Apart from an argument you might have with words as stupid as… the mother of all oxymorons, surely the Nobel Prize fur lytarachur, ‘precise estimates’, the upshot of his paragraph is;
‘…take no notice of the numbers, a load of stuff will change and we have no idea what, or how to mitigate the risks, or compensate for them, we are running behind events, made some guesses and when we know what’s what, we’ll write again.’
Oh, that’s not the end of it. It gets worse!
Fifty thousand nurses? Actually no;
‘As some nurses work part time, the programme will need more than 50,000 additional nurse headcount to meet the 50,000 target…’
How many more? Dunno…
We learn that the base-line, from which the counting starts, is nineteen months ago!
The report says;
‘…We currently estimate that by March 2024, the programme will have delivered between 42,000 and 61,000 additional, FTE nurses, based on current plans.’
What kind of a plan is it that has a variation of 19,000? It’s not a plan, it’s a game… pinning the tail on the donkey.
Here’s an even more worrying bit;
‘…Retention is the most significant area of uncertainty.’
No, no, no… it is the area we can do most about. To make working in the NHS, being part of a team of people to care for our families and communities, the most rewarding job it is possible to do.
This miserable document admits plans are likely to fall short: retention, a massive problem; returning, flakey; international recruitment, uncertain and time consuming…
… and when it fails? DH+ have a Plan B;
‘Develop plans to expand international recruitment, at short notice.’
… the one solution they tell us is uncertain and time consuming!
This is a horrible paper. A massive disappointment.
I can’t think what purpose it serves. I can only muse it might usefully be used in a lavatory.
>> I'm hearing - Graham Wareham who has been interim chief executive of Surrey and Borders Partnership Foundation Trust since December last year, has the job permanently.
>> I'm hearing - the BMA are complaining that NHSE are being 'misleading' about the new contract negotiations. Frankly, I'm past caring and just wish both sides would grow-up. It'll end with both sides talking... so just get on with it.
>> I'm hearing - A YouGov poll has revealed that 76% of British people want the Government to resettle Ukrainian refugees, with 11% opposed. 77% support more sanctions against Russia, up from 69% just before the invasion began. 60% support sending more arms to Ukraine, while 55% support the UK conducting cyberattacks against Russian forces. But over half oppose sending British troops to Ukraine, and only 31% think the UK should coordinate air strikes on Russian targets in Ukraine.
