Hi all,

I'm back with a supplement to the Year End after completing the latest round of market momentum reports. While demand has decreased since Covid height, it still exists, particularly for under $450,000 price points across municipalities in Dutchess County.

There is unease about interest rates with mortgaged buyers anxious to find their homes and lock in. Due to continued inventory shortage and demand, particularly in the lower price points, there could still be some contained over ask purchases on certain properties that are priced well, solidly marketed and check coveted boxes, at least in the front end of 2023. 

Dutchess County December 2022 YTD single family detached sales were down 22.1% versus same period 2021. The county is holding overall in a sellers market, averaging 3.1 months from listing to sold at this time. To clarify, sellers market status for Dutchess County is based on average across municipalities and price points. There is a town currently experiencing overall buyers market absorption rates, Northeast/Millerton. Absorption rates are the time from listed to sold, or absorbed back into the market. Absorption rates indicate market type (seller, neutral or buyers market). Supply and demand both hold wildcards that could make everything below go up or down. That being said...

Luxury, historically the first indicator of a changing market, is holding in many towns throughout Dutchess at sellers market absorption rates in the 1,000,000+ price points. However, eleven municipalities in Dutchess County are now experiencing saturation (read: buyers market) in the luxury sector. These include: Amenia, Beekman, Clinton, East Fishkill, Hyde Park, Northeast/Millerton, Pleasant Valley, Town of Poughkeepsie, Red Hook, Unionvale and Wappingers. 

There were points during Covid that even Rhinebeck showed high end saturation leading into Spring Market that was soon offset by sales. That could happen again. I'm skeptical for luxury with Wall Street dynamics, for starters.

I do expect to see increased price reductions and expirations in the months ahead that will likely be demand driven to a certain level (and more noticeably if interest rates take another bump and inventory increases), but I also see potential for overpricing to be incorrectly aligned with demand. In the height of Covid frenzy, in 2021, 595 listings expired (did not sell during the term of the listing agreement). In 2022, 423 listings expired. That's a high amount of expired listings considering the level of demand and depth of historic inventory shortage Dutchess County realized during both years. 

The number of expired listings during an otherwise high demand market drive home the point that buyers will climb the pricing ladder against each other but walk from overpriced listings. Generally speaking, there are two reasons residential listings expire during a reasonable length listing term relevant to property that considers market conditions within a particular price point: overpricing, ineffective marketing or both. Sidebar: I had not one listing expire throughout Covid (I'm allowed a horn toot every once in a while. lol)

Sales by Town

I custom produce market momentum reports which are time consuming to do, but worth the information gleaned as I have not seen the granular level of information I attain available otherwise. I find this data instrumental for both buyer and seller client guidance. The intel is also foundational for The Brick. Here's a sample of the market momentum report for Lagrange if interested in seeing. If you would like to see the one for your municipality, reach out.

With the exception of Amenia (+4%), Dover (flat), Northeast (+3%) and Milan (+3%), all other municipalities in Dutchess were down in overall sales December 2022 YTD versus December YTD 2021, per Mid Hudson multiple listing service. Sweet Rhinebeck (I'm bias) was down the most in overall sales in Dutchess County: -50%. Inventory is up 24% in Dutchess County December YTD 2022 v. 2021, yet sales are down overall. Demand has absolutely gone down with rising rates, but there can also be a direct relationship between overpricing and decreased sales.

Washington and Milan are the only municipalities in the County experiencing neutral market price points below $400,000. All other municipalities are holding strong in sellers market $0-$400,000.

Here is a breakdown by town for 2022:

Amenia is one of only a few towns up in overall sales. The town is holding in a sellers market with under 3 month absorption. The two price points currently saturated in Amenia are $450,000-$500,000 and $1,000,000+.

Beacon is down 31% in sales December YTD 2022 v. 2021. $650,000-$700,000 has moved from a sellers to neutral market with otherwise a very strong sellers market absorption level of 1.5 months.

Beekman is down 27% in sales December YTD 2022 v. 2021. Overall absorption rate also holding solid in a sellers market with 2.4 months absorption. There are two price ranges that have moved to a neutral market (6-8 month absorption): $700,000-$750,000 and $900,000-$1,000,000. The $1,000,000+ price point has hit buyers market level at 24 months. I represented the Stonegate subdivision in Hopewell Junction prior to Covid and routinely pulled market momentum reports to gauge pricing. Above $650,000 was a challenging price point at the time with $700,000+ barely existent. Most towns have realized entirely new price points since Covid.

Clinton/Clinton Corners is down 13% in sales December YTD 2022 v. 2021. While still in in a sellers market, absorption has inched up to 4.5 months. $600,000-$650,000 has turned into a neutral market price point. $500,000-$550,000, $650,000-$700,000 and $1,000,000+ all have buyers market absorption rates.

Dover is flat overall 2022 v. 2021, but up 29%-100% in the $300,000-$500,000 price points. Dover is the only town in Dutchess that consistently has a noticeable price gap in their housing. Below $500,000 and above $1,000,000 defines Dover's inventory with few exceptions.

East Fishkill is down 27% in sales. The $800,000-$900,000 price point has moved into a neutral market while $900,000-$1,000,000 was the ticket with a 700% increase in sales and still favorable 3 month sellers market absorption rate. $1,000,000+ is saturated. Awareness and understanding of the varied behavior in these close price points is a very good example of why these market momentum reports are so beneficial for client counsel.

Fishkill/V. Fishkill is down 6% in sales. There is positive growth in sales in certain price points including $550,000-$600,000, $650,000-$700,000 and $750,000-$800,000. The $700,000-$750,000 and $800,000-$1,000,000 price points are currently saturated/buyers market with $750,000-$800,000 moving into a neutral market.

Hyde Park is down 14% in sales while holding strong overall in a sellers market at 2%. Hyde Park does have four price points currently in saturation: $550,000-$600,000; $700,000-$750,000; $900,000-$1,000,000+. The neutral market has been introduced to the $500,000-$550,000 market.

Lagrange is down 19% in sales and still holding in a sellers market. $600,000-$650,000, $750,000-$800,000 and $900,000-$1,000,000 have all entered buyer market absorption levels. $700,000-$750,000 has moved to a neutral market. Unlike quite a few in the luxury space, $1,000,000+ market is holding in a sellers market.

Milan is up 3% overall in sales. Milan is also still holding in a sellers market in $1,000,000+. Saturation has been introduced to the $350,000-$400,000 and $500,000-$600,000 price points. $400,000-$450,000 is showing as a neutral market.

Northeast/Millerton is up 3% overall in sales. This is the only town in the roundup that is showing an overall absorption rate firmly in the buyers market sector at 8.2 months overall. $0-$400,000 is holding in sellers market levels with units sold bringing this municipality into one of the few showing positive year end sales. All price points above $400,000 are showing buyers market in absorption rates. The $1,000,000+ space is currently showing saturation with a 28 month absorption rate ( 8 months and above defines buyers market).

Town/Village Pawling: Down 27% in sales. The $1,000,000+ sector is holding strong in Pawling with a 3.4 month absorption rate and 40% increase in sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. The $600,000-$650,000 and $700,000-$900,000 are currently showing as saturated price points in Pawling with $900,000-$1,000,000 experienced six month neutral market absorption.

Pine Plains is down 14% in sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Pine Plains is holding in a sellers market with 2.9 month absorption. $500,000-$550,000 is currently holding buyers market absorption rate with all other price points solidly in sellers market conditions.

Pleasant Valley is down 30% in sales December YTD 2022 versus 2021. The town is holding strong in a sellers market in most price points with an overall absorption rate of 2.5 months. The price points of saturation are $600,000-$650,000 and $1,000,000+.

Poughkeepsie (City): The City of Poughkeepsie is down 11% overall in sales. The City is holding in a strong sellers market at 2.4 months absorption with the exception of $550,000-$600,000, which indicates sellers market absorption rates at this time.

Poughkeepsie (Town) is also down in overall sales, by 23%. The overall absorption rate is holding overall in sellers market at 2.5 month absorption. The $1,000,000+ price point is showing three current listings available with a buyers market absorption rate of 18 months.

Red Hook: Down 32% in sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Holding in an overall sellers market at 3.7 month absorption. $600,000-$650,000 has moved to a neutral (6-8 months from listed to sold) absorption rate, $750,000-$800,000 and $1,000,000+ both show buyers market absorption rates of twelve months.

Rhinebeck: Down 50% in overall sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Rhinebeck is holding in a sellers market with an overall absorption rate of 3.8 months. $450,000-$500,000 and $700,000-$800,000 have moved to a neutral market. $600,000-$650,000 is currently showing as saturated/buyers market with twelve month absorption. The high end is hanging tough at 4.7 month seller market absorption rates $1,000,000+.

Stanford: Down 12% in overall sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Overall sellers market absorption rate of 2.9 months. $1,000,000+ holding in sellers market at 3.4 month absorption rates. $550,000-$600,000 has moved to a neutral market with $800,000-$900,000 now in a buyers market.

Unionvale: Down 11% in overall sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Holding in sellers market at 2.4 absorption rates. $900,000-$1,000,000+ currently realizing buyers market absorption rates.

Wappingers: Down 21% in overall sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Holding in overall sellers market absorption rate of 2.1 months. $550,000-$600,000 and $700,000-$750,000 has moved to a neutral (6-8 month from listed to sold) market. Wappingers is currently being hit the hardest in the high end out of all municipalities in Dutchess County with a whopping 36 month absorption rate in the luxury $1,000,000+ sector (8 months is when the market turns buyers in our area for perspective).

Washington/Millbrook: Down 42% in overall sales December 2022 YTD versus 2021. Currently at an overall 5 month absorption rate, which is still considered sellers market, but a move to 6 months will put it into a neutral market. The $1,000,000+ sector is just below the move to neutral at 5.7 months. The town has three price points experiencing a neutral market at this time: $300,000-$400,000, $500,000-$550,000 and $700,000-$750,000. Buyers market absorption rates are showing at $450,000-$500,000; $550,000-$600,000 and $750,000-$800,000.

*****

Interested in what I'm looking at for these details? Click here to see the market momentum report I custom produced for the Town of Lagrange based fully on data culled from the Mid-Hudson multiple listing service as an example.

TOP TEN

Buyers looking under $400,000 - this is a challenging price point with current inventory. Units sold decreased in 2022, but the below municipalities have offered the most options in this price range over the past two years in Dutchess County.

Inventory levels in any of these towns is low in the moment, but it should start to pick up. This is a good time to start looking into towns if you are exploring options and circle back to your lender if financing. Of course, also align with a realtor if not already - that would be me! ;)

Home Equity Line of Credit

I am not a lender, but with loan originations down, I imagine there are some hungry lenders out there. I've been hearing "HELOC" more and more. This option provides a loan against equity as many have much more equity in their homes now. I just want to mention there are people that got a HELOC at 3% not long ago and have experienced noticeable rate increase. My understanding is some HELOC's can be fixed and some adjustable. Again, I'm not a lender. Just suggesting to be very clear on all details, including, but not limited to, whether there is a cap and rate adjustment triggers.

Now it's an official wrap! The Poughkeepsie Journal and TimesUnion reached out for expert input on the market. I should be in both early this week and one of my totally sweet buyer clients is going to be in the one with the Poughkeepsie Journal too!

We know what is now. Curious what your property is worth? Let's talk! I know it doesn't seem this way with leaves off the trees and cold, but it is truly prime time right now to get on the market. The buyers truly are out and hungry.

Best,

Sandi

Did you miss the Official Year End of The Brick:

"Sign of Things to Come?" Click here.