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PDF | Research | Week of Sept 9 2024

Quote of the Week

“There are sufficient jitters for the Fed to take a hard look at a half-point cut

later this month.”

– Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research, Glenmede.  

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Letter From Milan

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When it comes to private capital, institutional investors in Italy have an increasing variety of options. Exposure to US private equity, for example. And while specialized strategies have emerged (e.g. venture capital), the focus on established buyout funds has been prevailing. 


Private equity issuance has been particularly active. For the first quarter of 2024, even with economic, geopolitical headwinds, and the slowdown of global M&A, 104 transactions were recorded. Per a recent ICLG report, this was the most Italian deal volume since 1988.


Italian credit investors have historically been big buyers of fixed-income. While current exposure to private debt has been limited, appetite is growing and follows the same path of PE with some nuances dictated by regulators. For instance, insurance companies are one of the largest investor categories in private debt, even though, when it come US currency exposure, the accounting and Solvency II implications may add an extra layer of complexity...

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Chart of the Week

Arrivederci, Roma

Consumers in Italy reported a drop in confidence last month. 

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Source: The Daily Shot


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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PDI Picks

Waiting for the specialty wave

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There are reasons why you might expect esoteric strategies to garner more investor dollars, but it may not be straightforward. 

Our Investor Report 2024 shows no obvious change in limited partners’ appetite for different types of private debt strategy. Direct lending has long been in favour and appears to remain so today, when you consider where investors are planning to make their allocations...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Over US$2bn of loans added to BDC non-accrual status in 2Q24. non-accrual rate ticks up

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Over US$2bn of BDC loans were added to non-accrual status in the most recent quarter. In turn, the weighted average non-accrual rate for public and private BDCs combined ticked up to 1.66% in 2Q24...

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Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Healthcare IT PE deal count

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In the lower middle market, we are beginning to see more examples of a phenomenon we have anticipated for a while: PE firms and PE-backed companies acquiring VC-backed startups...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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BDC Cash Income Dividend Coverage Pressured by Payment-in-Kind Income

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U.S. business development companies’ (BDCs) cash earnings coverage of dividends is expected to weaken further from 2Q24 levels as the persistence of elevated interest rates will drive further increases in paid-in-kind (PIK) income, Fitch Ratings says. Potential rate cuts, spread compression and higher non-accruals are also headwinds to BDCs’ net-investment income (NII)...

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Contact: Brian Harris / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Distribution of Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Addback Time Horizons

(for Actions Resulting in Addbacks)

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.1% as of 29 August, versus 11.7% as of 5 August, highest YTD) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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Investor sentiment towards private debt

remains strong

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Read more in Preqin’s: Trending Data: Investor interest grows in private equity, real estate, and VC.


Private debt remains the most popular alternative asset class among investors, scoring 70.9% on Preqin’s Investor Sentiment Index...

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Contact: William Bennett-LynchPreqin

September Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.