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PDF | Research | Week of July 29 2024

Quote of the Week

“If they’ve got enough confidence to go in September, then that’s got to make November live as well as December.”

– Richard Clarida, senior advisor, Pimco and former Fed vice-chair.

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Letter from London (First of a Series)

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Last week we visited our UK colleagues, clients and friends for a number of discussions around private capital. These conversations echoed similar sentiments from investors at home, with many funds building on already existing positions in both private credit and private equity. We heard about strategies, not related to timing, but rather more sophisticated approaches to private market exposure.  


Since our last tour in 2023 economic and market conditions have clarified. As is the case in the US, the UK economy continues to motor along despite BOE’s rate of 5.25%, essentially at the Fed’s current level. While the nation’s predicted growth rate this year of 0.7% is about half of the US, its inflation rate has also been holding steady 2% (vs. 3% here) for a number of months. That is expected to lead to rate cuts later in the year...

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Chart of the Week

Greatest Britain

The UK has been the main source of European private debt deal volume.

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Source: Deloitte Private Debt Deal Tracker, Spring 2024


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Fundraising revival on hold 

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There were some signs of improvement in the second quarter, but raising new private debt capital was still a struggle in the first six months of 2024. 

The first half of 2024 did not offer much consolation to those awaiting clear signs of a private debt fundraising revival. Private Debt Investor’s provisional data for H1 records $108.5 billion of capital raised – down on the $114.1 billion total in the first half of last year, and a significant decline on the $143.3 billion total in the first half of the peak fundraising year of 2021 (see chart)...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Middle Market Survey - Were you able to lend as much as you wanted to in 2Q24?  

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Even though middle market loan volume increased by 27% to US$67.2bn in 2Q24, many middle market lenders found sufficient opportunities hard to come by in the most recent quarter, according to LSEG LPC's 3Q24 Middle Market Outlook Survey..

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Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Continuation-fund-related PE exit count

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Looking ahead, the forces driving the recent acceleration in continuation funds remain in place. Traditional M&A and IPO exits recovered in H1 2024 but only modestly so. They remain well below historical averages relative to AUM and the 23,300 companies accumulated by PE funds in North America and Europe. Meanwhile, new money flowing to strategies that invest in LP- and GP-led secondaries, including continuation vehicles, continues to build. Total committed capital for funds closed in the trailing 12-month (TTM) period ending Q1 2024 topped $83.6 billion, a 48.3% gain over the prior year. In Q1 alone, an impressive $29.4 billion was raised by secondaries-focused funds. We would not be surprised to see the fundraising gap between primary and secondary PE strategies narrow significantly in H2 2024.

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Comparing Business Development Companies and Middle Market Collateralized Loan Obligations

(Part 1)

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While the expansion in private credit has attracted widespread media attention in recent years, direct lending has been around for several decades and remains the largest segment of private credit...

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Contact: Winnie Fong / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of First Lien Loans with Affected Lender Voting Protection

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

Feeling the pinch: loan margins and OIDs are tightening

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Despite a slight rebound in June, loan prices – both margins and original issue discounts (OIDs) – have continually tightened this year on the back of a record volume of deals pricing since January thanks to a surfeit of demand from investors...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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Private debt fundraising recovers toward trend

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Read more in Private Debt Q2 2024: Preqin Quarterly Update


Private debt funds raised $50.4bn in the second quarter of 2024, boosted by a more settled economic outlook...

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Contact: William Bennett-LynchPreqin

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.