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PDF | Research | Week of October 16, 2023

Quote of the Week

“History shows us that there is no way to end inflation without a loosening of the jobs market." – Mark Mason, chief financial officer, Citi.

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Letter from Stockholm

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Our recent visit to Sweden was the 12th country in our 2023 global private credit tour meeting clients and prospects. The Nordic region has always been strong in terms of investor interest and commitment to alternatives. Amid higher rates, that appetite has sharpened, as our colleagues at Arcmont (and Nuveen for real estate and green energy) who joined us attested.


As with all jurisdictions, it seems private credit has captured an increasing share of investor allocations. Private credit’s traditional benefits – price stability, yield premiums, conservative structures, and portfolio diversification – are well understood. Now you can add double-digit all-in, unlevered yields as well as lower borrower leverage and even tighter structures.


Investors shared similar concerns about the impact of higher rates on borrower defaults. Common questions included how loan values are being affected, what’s the default rate now compared to a year ago, and how are you dealing...

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Chart of the Week

Swede Success

Industrial activity in Sweden surged in August, thanks to higher car and truck production.

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Source: The Daily Shot / OECD

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / Pitchbook LCD

PDI Picks

Patience Needed for Next NPL Wave

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No-one should expect a sudden 2008-style surge, but economic headwinds are expected to eventually translate to a promising opportunity set. 



Three years ago, Private Debt Investor launched a cross-asset class survey called the Fund Leaders Survey comprised of more than 100 senior buyout, growth, private debt...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

1Q-3Q23 US Syndicated ABL volume up 5% to

US$127.0bn

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Finding quality opportunities to put money to work has been one of the main challenges faced by middle market lenders this year. However, it...

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Contact: David Miao/ Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

A Historically Slow Exit Market

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PE exit activity resumed its downward trend in Q3, according to PitchBook’s Q3 US PE Breakdown. $44.1 billion was exited last quarter, the lowest quarterly total in ten years, exempting the COVID quarter of Q2 2020...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Covenant Trends 

Distribution of Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Addback Time Horizons (for Actions Resulting in Addbacks)

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper
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Private Debt Intelligence

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APAC-focused Private Debt Fundraising Moderates After Blockbuster Fund Closes

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Aggregate capital raised by APAC-focused private debt funds fell in 2023 amid uncertainties around interest rates. Fifteen funds...

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Contact: Valerie Kor/ Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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Source: VanEck BDC Income ETF, BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Effective Yield.


The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11%) that tracks the overall performance of...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.