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PDF | Research | Week of Jun 2 2025

Quote of the Week

“We’ll carefully watch super-long yield developments and their impact on the economy.”

- Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan

 
 

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There’s a New Tariff in Town (Second of Two Parts)

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Episode 10: Jess Larsen, CEO of Briarcliffe Credit Partners


“Mid-market lending will continue and will always be the core income component of a private credit portfolio.” - Jess Larsen

Letter from Tokyo (Last of a Series)

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“Rice supplies in Japan still low, with prices almost doubled since year ago.” – Headline, Asia News Network.



Always attuned to market conditions on the ground, we heard from friends in Tokyo last week that, incredibly, grocery stores were out of rice. The impact of hot, wet weather and dealers hoarding product has sent rice prices soaring and supplies dwindling. A five-kilogram bag now costs ¥4,000, or about $28. In the US, a container twice as large goes for $10.99 at Stop & Shop. The Japanese government promised to release stockpiles of rice shortly to ease shortages.


Rice is not Japan’s only pain point these days. The yen depreciated 50% against the USD over the past four years in concert with the Fed’s rate hike to fight inflation. This costs the Japanese consumer more for imported food and energy, though supports tourism revenues. Recently this has reversed, with the USD depreciating by approximately 10% over the past four months. As tariff pressures build, the BOJ is more likely to pursue rate hikes to battle future inflation...


Chart of the Week

Rising Sun

Japan’s long-dated bond yields have moved up sharply so far in 2025. 

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Source: The Daily Shot

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

US Leveraged Loans Post Largest Monthly Return Since 2023

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After a brief pause in its long-running rally, the Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN) advanced 1.53% in May, bringing its YTD return to 1.95%...


Contacts: Vincent Daigger, Jasvinder Singh/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

The growing importance of geopolitics

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Given the high-profile and disturbing nature of tensions between certain countries, geopolitics weighs heavily on investors’ minds today. 

While the Ukraine-Russia war continues to rage, private markets investors are just as worried – in fact slightly more so – about simmering tensions between the US and China...


Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Daily Analytic: First-lien share of BDC portfolios continues to climb

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The first-lien share of BDC portfolios continues to edge higher, climbing to 86.4% in 1Q25, up 4 percentage points from a year earlier and 8 percentage points two years ago...

Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Share of private debt capital raised by type

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In Q1 2025, the distressed debt substrategy secured $21.4 billion in commitments, largely thanks to the $16 billion fund raised by Oaktree Capital Management...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Private Credit’s Growing Complexity Untested Through Market Cycles

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Download Report


Private credit (PC) markets remain resilient, despite recent challenges stemming from tariff-driven market volatility, slowing economic growth and a higher policy rate trajectory than initially anticipated at the beginning of the year...


Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans that Allow Uncapped Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Adjustments, Sponsored v Non-Sponsored (LTM)

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.3% as of 23 May) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

Contacts: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.