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PDF | Research | Week of May 26 2025

Quote of the Week

“People were thinking that the economy was slowing down, that employment would slow down and that would negatively impact earnings. But that didn’t happen.”

- Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist, Sanctuary Wealth

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There’s a New Tariff in Town (First of Two Parts)

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Episode 10: Jess Larsen, CEO of Briarcliffe Credit Partners


Mid-market lending will continue and will always be the core income component of a private credit portfolio.” - Jess Larsen

Letter from Tokyo (Second of a Series)

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Last week we came to Tokyo for meetings with our investors and friends in the region, as well as participating in S&P’s stellar Structured Finance Seminar 2025. Along with almost 200 attendees we heard senior ratings analysts and leading CLO market participants discuss trends and outlooks for global leveraged finance, CLOs and other securitized strategies. 


For our panel, “Private Credit, Middle Market CLOs and Fund Finance,” we discussed why the illiquid asset class has spawned so much growth in so many areas of structured finance. In part it’s the growing sophistication of financial engineering around CLOs and related vehicles. Dropdown structures, for example, are increasingly employed to leverage a variety of funds including BDCs, funds, and SMAs.


As S&P analysts highlighted, the smaller size and lower liquidity of PC assets mean they receive a notch or two lower rating than publicly rated loans. PC CLOs also historically have shorter reinvestment periods than BSL transactions; say, four vs. five years. They also have less ability to reinvest after that period ends, with prepayments and recovery proceeds paying down debt. Both these items serve as further investor protections given the illiquidity of the assets...


Chart of the Week

Premium Yields

Spreads for middle market CLOs are distributed higher than their BSL counterparts. 

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Source: S&P Global Ratings

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

US Leveraged Loan Launches Pick Back Up in May

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  • To Monitor Upcoming US Institutional Loan Issuance, run PREL <GO> from a Bloomberg Terminal


Following a record drought between March 28 and April 16 in which 14 business days passed without the launch of a new US leveraged loan financing, the longest such streak since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2013, the primary market has opened back up in May...



Contact: Vincent Daigger/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

Safety first

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Amid a volatile macro-economic and geopolitical backdrop, private credit funds are doubling down their investments in trusted sectors. 

US tariff uncertainty is leading to a flight to safety among private credit funds, particularly in terms of sector specialisms...

Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US middle market private debt fundraising stands at US$21.3bn so far in 2Q

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So far this quarter, LSEG LPC has tracked US$21.3bn of US middle market debt fundraising...


Contact: Alp Zavaro / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Months to close for PE funds

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In 2022, GPs began taking longer to close PE funds as exit activity decreased and LPs became more capital constrained as a result...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Credit Journal – Private Credit

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Download


Welcome to Fitch Ratings’ Credit Journal series – a subject-specific, curated compilation of our in-depth research and commentary...

Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average New-Issue Clearing Spreads (Single B) and Covenant Terms for All

First-Lien Institutional Loans

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.3% as of 23 May) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

Contacts: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.