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PDF | Research | Week of Sept 30 2024

Quote of the Week

“For an investor who wants to own the whole market, more and more of the market is private.”

– Brian Moriarty, strategist, Morningstar. 

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2024 Private Debt Survey


Institutional investors, RIAs, and financial advisors: We want to hear from you! We invite you to share your views on private debt and today’s environment by completing a brief 2-minute survey. We look forward to sharing the results with you in an upcoming Lead Left issue.

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Letter from the North Country

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Our friends at Bloomberg hit the market last week with a startling headline: “Private Credit Faces Worst Reckoning Since 2008.” Just in time for us to speak to hundreds of institutional investors at conferences in Traverse City, Michigan, and Toronto about private credit’s virtues.


We did find evidence of solid risk management. A recent Fitch report on Canadian pension funds said investment portfolios “will remain pressured by a challenging market backdrop, as the increased cost of debt and anticipated slower growth weigh on private asset valuations.” The good news, the report went on, is that “the exceptionally strong liquidity of the funds provides sufficient cushion to absorb investment volatility and gives them flexibility to work through troubled investments as they are not forced sellers of assets.”...

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Chart of the Week

O Canada

Canadian GDP forecasts have been increasingly bullish since January.

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Source: The Daily Shot, Bloomberg


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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PDI Picks

The LPs leading the charge

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Download PDI’s Global Investor 75 ranking: here

For an asset class that appears to be so popular, investor commitments can seem puzzlingly modest. But our GI 75 ranking reveals there is some strong support out there.

Most limited partners consider themselves under-allocated to private debt, according to the results of our Investor Report 2024 (see chart). But, while the number of large investor organisations lacking a significant exposure to the asset class is surprising, it’s also true that some institutions take it very seriously indeed – as is made clear by our Global Investor 75 ranking of the largest investors in private debt...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

At US$110bn, 3Q24 M&A loan volume highest quarterly total in 2 years  

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The US broadly syndicated loan market supported over US$110.5bn of acquisition financing in 3Q24, the strongest quarterly results in over two years, pushing 1-3Q24 totals to nearly US$266bn...

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Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

New family offices and wealth-management firms founded annually

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Private market AUM held in drawdown funds is nearly $15 trillion globally, up from less than a trillion in 2000, handily outpacing the growth in public markets. However, outside of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) and those with privileged networks, individual investors have been largely left out of the mix...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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Three Rs — Refis, Repricings, Recaps— drive jumbo volume to record

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Private jumbo loan volume stands at a record totaling $69.7 billion through Sept. 18, according to news reporting by KBRA Direct Lending Deals (KBRA DLD). The total tops full-year volume of $50.3 billion in 2023, and the previous high of $59.2 billion recorded in 2022. Jumbos are defined as loans >=$1 billion...

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Contact: Kelly Thompson / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Private Credit Default Rate Debuts at 5.0%

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Download Report


Fitch Ratings’ Private Credit Default Rate (PCDR) launches at 5.0% for August 2024, covering nearly 1,200 issuers covered by Fitch in the broad private credit segment. This report highlights sector specific default rates, key trends in default activity through the year-to-date (YTD) period, and the methodology for calculating these rates. Fitch plans to publish the PCDR on a monthly basis...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Deals with 75+ bps MFN

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Download Data

Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11% as of 27 September) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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Direct lending drives private debt growth 

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Read more in Preqin’s Insights+ Report: Future of Alternatives 2029. 


Fund managers and investors alike have high hopes for private debt, with GPs launching strategies or acquiring specialist managers and LPs overwhelmingly maintaining or increasing allocations to the asset class (99% in our last Investor Survey)...

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Contact: William Bennett-LynchPreqin

September Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.