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PDF | Research | Week of Mar 31 2025

Quote of the Week

“Probably the biggest attempt to fundamentally reshape the tax-trade structure in the US since Nixon took us off the gold standard in the early 1970’s.”

–  Michael Gapen, chief US economist, Morgan Stanley. (WSJ)

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Private Credit in a Post-Rate World (Third of a Series)

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Private Capital Call Podcast

Episode 8: Tim Bray, GuideStone Financial Resources

"Private credit is one of the asset classes to get a substantial yield income relative to fixed income and provide stability and downside protection to portfolios." - Tim Bray

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Letter from the Persian Gulf

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It had been a while since our last MENA visit, so on a recent trip there with our teams, clients and friends, the difference in levels of activity and interest around private credit was palpable. 


Most large sophisticated institutional investors in the Gulf, including sovereign wealth and pension funds, now have a dedicated allocation to private credit. They have been extremely selective, hiring top managers with scaled platforms and key differentiation points. These include consistency of underwriting disciplines, fully equipped tool kits of creative capital solutions, time-tested, all-cycle track records, and commitments to the region in the form of a local presence.


We’ve also seen many, if not all, of these same institutions setting up teams dedicated to private credit, knowing that allocations to this area had often been handled by their fixed income or special situations teams. And having begun in-market with intra-regional strategies, now graduating to non-“local” managers and strategies...


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April 28-29, New York Marriott Marquis | NYC, NY

The CLO Industry Conference

The pre-eminent leveraged loan and CLO event of the year

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Chart of the Week

Seven Year Switch

Private wealth investors expected to triple allocation to alternatives by 2032.

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Source: Bain & Company, GlobalData, Preqin, iCapital 

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

New money financing remains muted as M&A off to slow start in 2025

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At just $35.9b or 11% of volume in Q1 2025, new money financing remains sluggish amid record levels of issuance. At $339.2b, first quarter issuance was among the busiest since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2013, however that did not translate into the M&A spree many were hoping for...



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Contacts: Vincent Daigger, Lara Wieczezynski/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

Stresses and strains may trigger a distress revival 

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Distressed debt has adapted to more benign market conditions but may revert to a ‘pure’ form as pressure on borrowers grows.

Distressed debt isn’t what it used to be. In the wake of the global financial crisis, there was a once-in-a-lifetime chance to invest in rebuilding a global economy that was in tatters. That was a genuine “pure distress” opportunity which made fortunes for some but may have burnt others...



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Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Evolution of leveraged loans by vintage shows notable reductions in near-term maturity walls

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Leveraged loan issuers have continued to proactively manage their capital structures via refinancings and extensions, driving significant reductions in near-term maturity walls over the past 15 months...


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Contact: Chris Piccirillo / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Share of private debt capital raised by strategy

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Direct lending led as the top fundraising substrategy within private debt, accounting for 60.7% of the capital raised in 2024...



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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Tight Spreads, Rising Non-Accruals to Further Weaken BDC Earnings

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Continued spread pressure and additional non-accruals will likely weaken earnings and dividend coverage for business development companies (BDCs)...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans with an MFN Sunset

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.9% as of 31 March) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans). The brown line displays the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield (currently at 7.5% as of 31 March), which tracks the performance of USD denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US...


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Contacts: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.