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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
How North Africa is Asserting Itself in a Changing World
North African nations—Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya—are redefining their international roles by prioritizing national interests and autonomy. Economic challenges and public dissatisfaction are prompting leaders to move away from traditional Western alliances, seeking partnerships that offer tangible benefits without stringent conditions. For instance, Morocco is engaging with Gulf states for investment and expanding its influence within Africa, while Algeria leverages its energy resources to negotiate favorable deals with Europe and explores defense agreements with China and Turkey. Egypt balances relationships with the U.S., Russia, and China, securing military aid and infrastructure investments. Tunisia, facing economic hardships, is turning to regional allies like Algeria and potential Gulf investors, rejecting conditional Western loans. Libya's factions engage multiple foreign patrons to maintain autonomy and influence. Collectively, these countries are adopting multifaceted foreign policies to navigate a multipolar world, emphasizing sovereignty and pragmatic engagement.
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A Breakdown of How the EU Migration Crackdown isn't Working
Despite a reported 25% decrease in irregular migration to Europe in early 2025, the Central Mediterranean route experienced a 48% surge. Demand for irregular migration remains high, driven by conflicts and economic instability in regions like the Sahel, North Africa, and the Middle East. Smuggling networks have adapted to enforcement measures by shifting routes and diversifying activities, often exploiting EU migration agreements. These findings suggest that current EU and UK strategies may be ineffective in addressing the root causes of migration and disrupting smuggling operations.
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Egypt’s Pound Plunges to New Low as Trump Tariffs Roil Markets
Egypt’s currency plunged the most since last year’s devaluation to hit a record low after US President Donald Trump’s tariffs roiled global markets. The pound fell more than 2% on the offshore market, before paring some of its losses to trade at 51.43 per dollar at 12:10 p.m. in Cairo on Monday. It was the biggest decline since authorities in March 2024 enacted a steep devaluation to tackle a chronic foreign-exchange shortage and secure an expanded International Monetary Fund program.
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Libya Devalues Currency by 13% After Decline in Oil Revenue
Libya’s central bank devalued the dinar by 13% as the divided OPEC member grapples with a decline in crude revenue that a plunge in global oil prices stands to worsen. The Libyan currency will now trade at 5.5677 per US dollar, the regulator announced. The move seeks to create balance in the economy amid high demand for foreign exchange, it said, adding that supporting the dinar with reserves is unsustainable. The bank put oil revenue at $5.2 billion for the first quarter of 2025, far below spending commitments for Libya’s two rival governments that total about $9.8 billion.
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Libya, Ten NGOs & UNHCR Suspended: "They Undermine National Sovereignty"
Libya's Internal Security Agency has suspended ten international NGOs and the UNHCR, accusing them of activities that undermine national sovereignty and alter the country's demographic composition. The organizations, including Doctors Without Borders and the Norwegian Refugee Council, are alleged to have facilitated the permanent settlement of irregular migrants, particularly of sub-Saharan origin, within Libya. Authorities also claim these groups promoted values contrary to Libyan identity, such as Christianity and atheism. Critics argue that this move will exacerbate the plight of approximately 787,000 migrants and refugees in Libya, many of whom already face severe hardships.
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Egypt Flirts with China, Sidesteps Trump
Amid strained relations with the U.S., Egypt is strengthening economic ties with China, exemplified by a recent $1.65 billion deal to develop metal factories in the Suez Canal zone. This contributes to China's $5 billion investment in Egypt this year, including the construction of Africa's first satellite lab. While maintaining its U.S. security partnership, Egypt is diversifying alliances to bolster economic growth and regional influence.
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US‑Africa Week Ahead: Africa Responds to Tariffs; the Boulos Tour; Hunting Somali Pirates
The Trump administration's recent imposition of steep tariffs on African nations, including 50% on Lesotho, 47% on Madagascar, and 30% on South Africa, effectively nullifies the benefits of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire in September. These tariffs threaten key sectors such as South Africa's $2 billion automotive export industry, prompting officials to seek exemptions and diversify trade partnerships. Concurrently, entrepreneur Gregory Boulos is expanding his African operations, focusing on sectors like agribusiness and renewable energy. Additionally, international efforts to combat Somali piracy are intensifying, with increased naval patrols and strategic collaborations aimed at securing vital maritime routes.
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Libya: New Challenges and Alliances Six Years After Khalifa Haftar's Attempted Coup
Six years after Khalifa Haftar's failed attempt to seize Tripoli, Libya remains divided between rival administrations in Tripoli and Benghazi. Haftar's influence has grown, bolstered by international support. Recent visits by his son, Saddam Haftar, to Ankara signal a pragmatic shift in relations between eastern Libya and Turkey. Despite the absence of open conflict, sporadic clashes persist among militias vying for control over territories and illicit trades, particularly in Zawiya and southern regions. The enduring instability underscores the fragility of Libya's political landscape.
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Sudan takes UAE to Court Over Genocide Complicity
Sudan has filed a case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of violating the Genocide Convention by supplying arms to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF has been implicated in ethnic attacks against the Masalit tribe in West Darfur during 2023, which the U.S. has classified as genocide. Sudan seeks emergency measures to halt the UAE's alleged support to prevent further atrocities. The UAE denies these allegations, dismissing the case as baseless.
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Italy's Eni to Invest $26 Billion in North Africa Over Next Four Years
Italian energy company Eni plans to invest approximately €24 billion ($26.24 billion) over the next four years in Algeria, Libya, and Egypt to enhance energy production. This initiative aligns with Italy's Mattei Plan to strengthen economic and political ties with Africa. Eni aims to address the 7–8% annual increase in domestic energy demand in these countries, driven by demographic growth. The investment allocates over €8 billion each to Algeria and Libya, with a similar amount for Egypt. Despite Eni's 2015 discovery of the Zohr gas field, Egypt's gas production has declined since 2021, reaching a six-year low in 2024.
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Tiris Uranium Project – Progressing Towards Production
Aura Energy is advancing its Tiris Uranium Project in Mauritania, focusing on securing water resources, enhancing engineering designs, and obtaining necessary permits. The company has completed hydrogeological studies, initiated basic engineering programs, and engaged with government authorities to ensure compliance. These efforts aim to position the project for a Final Investment Decision in early 2025 and commence production by late 2026 or early 2027.
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China Southern Signs MOU with Morocco's Royal Air Maroc
China Southern Airlines and Royal Air Maroc have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance connectivity between China and Africa. The agreement includes expanding interline cooperation and establishing a code-sharing partnership to offer passengers more travel options. This collaboration aims to strengthen trade and tourism ties between the two regions.
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Egypt Nears Deal for up to 100 South Korean FA-50 Light Attack Aircraft
Egypt is in advanced negotiations with South Korea to acquire up to 100 FA-50 light attack aircraft, starting with an initial order of 36 units. This procurement aims to modernize Egypt's air force by replacing aging Alpha Jets and K-8E trainers. The FA-50 offers a maximum speed of Mach 1.5 and a range of 2,592 kilometers. Its 70% parts commonality with Egypt's existing F-16 fleet is expected to streamline maintenance and logistics. This deal could enhance Egypt's aviation capabilities and strengthen strategic ties with South Korea.
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Turkey, Egypt Strike Deal for Joint Production of Robotic Vehicles
Turkey and Egypt have formalized an agreement to co-produce advanced unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in Cairo. The Kader Advanced Industrial Factory will utilize the engineering expertise of Turkey's Havelsan to manufacture these systems, with Havelsan providing technology transfer and licensing support. The UGVs will be tailored to meet the specific requirements of the Egyptian military and regional operational conditions. Prototype development is scheduled to commence within two weeks, aiming for a debut at the Egypt Defense Expo in December 2025.
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The EV Race Hits the Southern Shore? Morocco, Europe, and the Making of a Mediterranean Industrial Axis
Morocco is rapidly emerging as a strategic hub for electric vehicle (EV) and battery production in the Mediterranean, reshaping industrial dynamics amid rising global competition. Leveraging strategic ties with China and Europe, the nation has attracted major investments such as Gotion High Tech’s planned gigafactory in Kenitra. The EU sees Morocco as crucial to diversifying supply chains through upcoming Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships. Although navigating geopolitical tensions remains challenging, Morocco’s evolution from car assembly to integrated EV manufacturing underscores the region’s renewed significance in global industrial policy.
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Maghreb in Shock from Trump Taxes
The Trump administration has imposed significant tariffs on Maghreb nations, with Algeria facing 30%, Tunisia 28%, and Libya 31%, effective April 9. Morocco, though subjected to a lower 10% tariff, expresses frustration given its free trade agreement with the U.S. While exports to the U.S. constitute a modest portion of these countries' trade—approximately 3% for Tunisia and under 6% for Algeria—the new tariffs could strain economic relations and hinder growth in key sectors.
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Tariff Storm: Tunisian Olive Oil Rocked by Trump's 28% Tariff (Editorial)
The Trump administration's imposition of a 28% tariff on Tunisian exports, notably olive oil, threatens key sectors of Tunisia's economy. In 2024, Tunisian exports to the U.S. totaled approximately $609 million, with olive oil accounting for $218 million. The Tunisian-American Chamber of Commerce has initiated negotiations to mitigate the impact on competitiveness. This development may exacerbate Tunisia's economic challenges and strain U.S.-Tunisia trade relations.
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In Tunisia, Traditional Media and Social Networks in the Age of Disinformation
Tunisia's traditional media and social networks are increasingly conduits for disinformation, exacerbated by the government's use of Decree 54 to suppress dissent. This 2022 law imposes severe penalties for spreading "false news," leading to the imprisonment of journalists like Borhane Bsaïs and Mourad Zeghidi. Critics argue that Decree 54 undermines press freedom and stifles political opposition, reflecting a broader trend of media manipulation and censorship in the country.
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Emotional Addiction to ChatGPT: When Psychological Fragility Meets AI
Individuals with psychological vulnerabilities are increasingly forming emotional dependencies on AI chatbots like ChatGPT, raising concerns among mental health professionals. Experts emphasize that while AI can offer temporary comfort, it lacks the depth and empathy of human interaction, potentially exacerbating users' underlying issues. This trend underscores the need for responsible AI use and highlights the importance of seeking professional psychological support when needed.
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The SAIS Middle East & North Africa Club, in collaboration with the North Africa Initiative (NAI) at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University SAIS, organized a focused expert discussion on irregular migration from North Africa to Europe. This event examined the key drivers behind migration across the Mediterranean—ranging from socioeconomic and political instability to environmental stressors and transnational crime—while exploring the human stories behind the statistics. The program included a short documentary. Speakers assessed current legal frameworks, the role of sanctions and state fragility, and offered concrete policy recommendations to address the challenges and opportunities of irregular migration in the region.
| | The Central Mediterranean route, connecting North Africa to Europe, is the world's deadliest migration path. In 2023, nearly 2,500 individuals died or went missing attempting this crossing. Since 2014, over 26,000 deaths and disappearances have been recorded along this route. The perilous journey is marked by overcrowded, unseaworthy vessels and the absence of safe, legal migration alternatives. | | |
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ARAB CENTER WASHINGTON DC | STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI)
Neglected Conflicts in Libya, Sudan, and Yemen:
Humanitarian Conditions, Challenges, and Prospects for Resolution
April 10, 2025 | 09:30 AM — 11:30 AM ET
Arab Center Washington DC (ACW) and the MENA Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) are convening a panel of experts to examine neglected conflicts in Libya, Sudan, and Yemen. Panelists will discuss the current status of the conflicts and warring parties in these countries; the challenges to pursuing and reaching a political solution; and recommendations for ending the stalemates and moving to post-conflict stages.
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INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE ARAB & MUSLIM WORLD | BI-ANNUAL SEMINARS
Geopolitics of the Maghreb
March 18 — May 20, 2025 | 06:30 PM to 08:30 PM
The Maghreb, i.e., Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya constitutes a vast area bordering the rest of the Arab world and the Sahel and an immediate neighbor of the European Union, separated only by the Mediterranean. Since their independence in the 1950s and 1960s, these countries continue to face significant challenges, particularly economic, political and security, which directly affect their stability as well as their development prospects. The objective of this seminar is to study the main components of these challenges while attempting to restore them, both in their immediate context – national and regional – as well as in all the much broader ones – globalization, in particular – which make the Maghreb a necessary actor in world developments.
Classes are held in French.
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INKYFADA | VIEWS FROM ELSEWHERE
Russia's Ghost Fleet, An Invisible Presence in Libya
Russia is employing its "ghost fleet"—a collection of aging commercial vessels with concealed ownership—to clandestinely transport military equipment to Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar, according to leaked European Union naval documents. These ships manipulate their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to obscure movements, often deactivating or spoofing location data. In April 2024, the Cameroonian-flagged cargo ship Barbaros was photographed in the Bosphorus Strait carrying military-style trucks manufactured by a sanctioned Russian company. Subsequent inspections by Operation Irini uncovered 115 Russian-made trucks aboard the Barbaros; however, lacking definitive evidence of arms embargo violations, the vessel proceeded to Tobruk, Haftar's stronghold. This pattern of covert arms shipments underscores Moscow's strategy to bolster influence in Libya and the broader Sahel region, utilizing Libya as a logistical gateway. European officials express concern over Russia's expanding footprint, citing potential threats to regional stability and European security interests.
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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE FOUNDATION
Partners of Choice
Diplomatic tensions between Algeria and Morocco have intensified, leading to an escalating arms race in the Maghreb. Morocco received 24 AH-64E Apache helicopters from the U.S. as part of a $4.25 billion deal, prompting Algeria to negotiate the purchase of Russian Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighters. This acquisition would modernize Algeria's aging fleet and reinforce its reliance on Russian military equipment. Despite a recent defense cooperation agreement with U.S. AFRICOM, Algeria's actions suggest a preference for Russian partnerships. While direct conflict remains unlikely, the ongoing military buildup deepens the diplomatic standoff and reduces opportunities for resolving disputes. The EU's lack of a coherent policy on Algeria further complicates the regional dynamics.
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MIXED MIGRATION CENTRE
Uncounted & Unknown: Tracking Deaths & Disappearances on the Atlantic & Other Irregular Migration Routes
The Atlantic migration route from West Africa to the Canary Islands has become increasingly perilous, with a significant rise in migrant deaths and disappearances. In 2024, over 19,700 migrants arrived in the Canary Islands, nearly tripling the figure from the same period in 2023. Official reports documented 1,062 deaths along this route in 2024, but NGOs estimate the toll could be as high as 9,757, highlighting substantial underreporting. The clandestine nature of these journeys and inadequate data collection contribute to the discrepancy. Many vessels vanish without a trace, leaving families in anguish and complicating efforts to address the crisis. Enhanced international cooperation and comprehensive data collection are essential to mitigate these tragedies and uphold migrant rights.
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A PEOPLE'S PLANET
Mapping the Mediterranean’s Food Trade
The Mediterranean region is experiencing significant shifts in water and food trade dynamics, influenced by climate change, population growth, and evolving agricultural practices. Southern Mediterranean countries, traditionally reliant on imports, are expanding their agricultural exports, altering historical trade patterns. This transition raises concerns about water resource management, as increased agricultural production intensifies water usage in already arid areas. Virtual water trade, which accounts for the water embedded in food exports, highlights the environmental impact of these shifts. Coastal zones are particularly affected, necessitating integrated policies that address the interconnected challenges of water scarcity, food security, and ecosystem sustainability. Collaborative regional strategies are essential to balance economic development with the preservation of vital resources in the Mediterranean basin.
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LUISS MEDITERRANEAN PLATFORM | POLICY PAPER
Green Hydrogen and New Trans-Mediterranean Dynamics: Shaping the Future of Euro-Mediterranean Energy Relations
The emergence of green hydrogen is transforming Euro-Mediterranean energy relations, positioning North African nations as key suppliers to Europe's decarbonization efforts. This shift offers opportunities for industrial growth in the MENA region but also raises concerns about potential new energy dependencies. Strategic investments in infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are essential to develop a balanced and sustainable hydrogen economy across the Mediterranean.
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CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT | POLICY NOTE
Global Mobility: Confronting A World Workforce Imbalance
High-income and upper-middle-income countries are experiencing declining fertility rates, leading to aging and shrinking workforces. In contrast, lower-income nations are witnessing significant growth in working-age populations. This demographic shift presents economic challenges for wealthier countries and opportunities for poorer nations. Embracing global labor mobility could address workforce shortages in aging economies while providing employment prospects for workers from developing regions.
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Recruit Exceptional Global Talent from Johns Hopkins SAIS!
JHU SAIS Graduate Students bring advanced expertise, analytical rigor, and a global perspective to complex challenges. With 96% of graduates securing employment or further academic opportunities within six months, our candidates are well-prepared for roles across the private, public, non-profit, and multilateral sectors.
Employers can advertise job and internship openings, access curated resume books of highly qualified candidates, and engage through employer presentations, site visits, and career treks.
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Give today, support students and drive positive change in the world.
Consider contributing to the North Africa Initiative by selecting 'Other' and specifying 'The North Africa Initiative' when making your gift. Your support plays a vital role in advancing research and programming, fostering development, stability, and prosperity in the subregion.
Your gift has an immediate impact on students, staff and scholarships at Johns Hopkins SAIS!
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Stay informed.
Stay ahead.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Deputy Director
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | | Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
![A C919 aircraft operated by China Southern Airlines taxis at Haikou Meilan International Airport in Haikou, South China's Hainan province, on Dec 11, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]](https://files.constantcontact.com/de1a1f11601/42c1df24-9ef3-45c4-b483-15cc7e42b547.jpg)
