ON BREXIT OPTIONS

"A sovereign decision has been taken to leave by the British people.....But from the perspective of EU member states, as long as the decision on the organization of the exit is not finalized, there is always the possibility of reopening the door."

Emmanuel Macron

June 13, 2017

French President Emmanuel Macron, who won a stunning victory in the French runoff election on May 7, welcomed UK Prime Minister Theresa May to Paris five days after her electoral setback in the UK's snap election on June 8. After their private meetings and before watching a football (soccer) match between the teams of France and England, the two leaders held a joint press conference. 

Brexit was not their top priority then. Expressions of solidarity were the theme of the day, with Prime Minister May noting that "Both our countries have sadly experienced the horrors of terrorism all too recently." 

But Brexit did come up. How could it not? The serious work of the Brexit negotiations is set to begin on Monday, June 19, with a Frenchman, Michel Barnier, as chief negotiator for the EU, facing David Davis, the UK's Secretary of State for Exiting the EU. 

Mrs. May addressed the Brexit issue at the close of her statement. "On Brexit," she said, "we have been very clear that we want to maintain a close relationship and a close partnership with the EU and individual member states into the future."

Today's featured quote is something President Macron said in response to a question. Here is a bit more of his answer to that Brexit question: 

Well, actually, just a bit more background. 

 
The Article 50 Trigger. On May 29, Prime Minister May formally invoked the provisions of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union in a letter hand- delivered that day to Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council.

 
So the clock is ticking. The situation is succinctly described in a short article on the website of the European Union. The article poses the question, what happens next? Part of the answer is in these starkly clear sentences:

The British Election. When Prime Minister May called a snap election on April 18, her Conservative party had a majority of 12 in the 650-member House of Commons. Her goal was to increase that majority and thus give herself a stronger hand in the coming negotiations with the EU. Well, that didn't work out. Though still the largest faction in the Commons, the Conservatives didn't just lose seats, they lost their majority, and Mrs. May's leadership now depends upon the alliance she has formed with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. 

 
What does that mean for the Brexit talks? We don't know and we doubt that anyone does. The June 8 election was not a do-over referendum on the UK's membership in the EU. It was an election in which Brexit, though referenced, was largely taken off the table, with the parties jockeying for position on other issues. Arguably the Conservatives didn't handle those other issues well, but it is hard to know what the results will mean for Brexit. 

 
There are few if any parts of the globe that are totally unaffected by the UK-EU negotiations set to begin on Monday, and the problem is that the uncertainties they are meant to address will almost certainly become more acute over the next few months. Indeed the world may have to get awfully close to the March 2019 deadline for the negotiations before anyone has a sense of just how this will play out. That is because the nature of the beast is such that the party most willing to walk away is the party with the strongest hand. And that being the case, it is hard to imagine many early concessions from either Mr. Barnier or Mr. Davis.