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Doubtless you have been confronted with the response, "That's a very good question." Not always, but usually it means the speaker doesn't have a clue. Well, for us, "Will USMCA become law and if so when?" is a very good question. We don't have an answer. As far as Mexico and Canada are concerned, it is clear that America's North American trading partners want to get this done. Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland commented that it is now "full steam ahead" on USMCA, and Mexico's approval of new labor laws at the end of last month more than testifies to that country's determination to put the new NAFTA in place. The United States is the question mark. House Democrats hold the key, and they are far from signing off.
As things stand, we are happy to borrow a little optimism from Canada. In that regard the comments over the weekend from
David McNaughton, Canada's ambassador to the United States, were particularly encouraging. In a weekend interview with CTV, Ambassador McNaughton said:
"I've spent a lot of time on the Hill talking to people, including a lot of Democrats, and I think this tariff resolution is going to give the impetus to get this deal done."
He projected Congressional approval of USMCA this summer - that is by the end of July - as a real possibility.
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For the countries of North America, North American trade is the top trade priority. That means getting USMCA ratified by all three governments as soon as possible. But we all live in a larger world, and our guess is that officials in Canada and Mexico fully appreciate the global significance of USMCA as well its regional application. Nothing, for example, is more likely to encourage a meaningful restart to the U.S.-China talks than clear movement towards a speedy implementation of USMCA, especially if it appears likely to be approved by strong majorities in all three countries. Our hope is that Congress will weigh those factors as well. Politically, the House Democrats could be the big winners if they decide to move USMCA to the statute books. It would be a powerful demonstration that they are as much about governing as they are about politicking.
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