NEWSLETTER SEPTEMBER 2024

As we start to say farewell to winter and welcome in warmer weather, we at MISTRA are reflecting on how far our country has come and also looking ahead to potential futures for South Africa.

In August MISTRA released the Digital Horizon Report, commissioned by NASPERS, which unpacks the many opportunities South Africa can enjoy by embracing new and emerging digital platforms. We also hosted the Mapungubwe Annual Lecture, which was delivered by Advocate Tembeka Ngcukaitobi SC under the theme Constitutionalism and its malcontents: Critiques of Constitutionalism 30 Years On.

In addition to this, Indlulamithi officially launched the scenarios book, titled: Journeys into our Future: South Africa 2024 – 2035, which provides a glimpse into potential futures and unpacks different trajectories our nation might follow, as influenced by significant trends and dynamics. MISTRA also launched a report analysing the outcome of our recent elections. Assessing everything from results and trends to coalition negotiations, this report provides a comprehensive overview of the 2024 elections.

Looking ahead, we’re excited about our upcoming international conference taking place on 10 and 11 October 2024. Titled: The Thucydides Trap or Orderly Multipolar World? Challenges and Opportunities for Africa, this two-day hybrid event will unpack the complexities of global geopolitics and explore how the African continent can respond to global power competition.

Other key events/engagements over the last few months include:

At DIRCO’s Strategic Engagement Session 2025-2030 in April, Dr Laurence Caromba, our Researcher: Humanity shared perspectives on the implications of a peace-centred foreign policy and its impact on the work of DIRCO, as well as the key economic components of diplomacy and related collaboration mechanisms required.
Na’eem Jeenah, Senior Researcher: Humanity co-presented on the Indlulamithi Scenarios to the Anglo-American Advisory Panel in May.
Dr Caromba attended the Europe Day event in May. Hosted by H.E. Mrs. Sandra Kramer Ambassador of the European Union and Mr Cees-Jan Bevers, Europe Day celebrates peace and unity in Europe.
MISTRA’s former Director for Research, Susan Booysen participated in the HSRC Panel Discussion exploring the viability of political party coalitions in South Africa, also in May.
Gloria Britain, MISTRA’s Company Secretary, attended the Symposium on the One-China Policy and the Future of China-South Africa Relations, at the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Pretoria.
Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung South Africa hosted a hybrid dialogue on the Polycrisis and Undermining of Democracy in July, which was attended by our Senior Researcher for Humanity.
The Director of Operations, Dr Yacoob Abba Omar, spoke as part of the closing panel discussion at the Investec Leadership Programme, held at Constitution Hill in July.
Our Executive Director, Joel Netshitenzhe, presented on the implications of the elections and the new GNU to Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) and the Millennium Labour Council (MLC), in June and July respectively.
MISTRA’s KESA Researcher, Dr Nqobile Xaba, attended a panel discussion on Fostering Gender Equality within the Energy Transition in South Africa at the German Embassy in Pretoria, at the beginning of August.
Senior KESA Researcher, Dr Zamanzima Mazibuko-Makena, accompanied by Dr Xaba, attended a Women’s Capacity Building Programme on Conflict Resolution, Mediation and Negotiation hosted by the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) in August.
Na’eem Jeenah presented a paper on international law and ways in which the Gaza genocide is altering how international law is considered at the Boğaziçi University School of Law in the Republic of Türkiye. The paper was titled ‘Reframing International Law: Global South Perspectives and Challenges’ in a session entitled ‘Race and Structural Violence in International Law’.

Our Digital Horizon: The Economic Opportunity of Digital Platforms in South Africa

Mapungubwe 12^th Annual Lecture, delivered by Advocate Tembeka Ngcukaitobi SC

Launch of Journeys into our Future: South Africa 2024 – 2035

MISTRA: Analysis of South Africa's 2024 Elections and the Coalitions Aftermath

Upcoming International Conference Thucydides Trap

A MISTRA Working Paper: A Strategic Overview of Election 2024

A MISTRA Working Paper: Organisational Underpinnings of National Development Planning: Interrogating Democratic South Africa’s Experience

At the end of August, MISTRA launched the Digital Horizon report, in partnership with Naspers. This report comes out at a time when South Africa celebrates 30 years of democracy and highlights our country’s unique transformation journey as we concurrently grapple with far-reaching political, economic and technological changes.

Digital transformation is revolutionising traditional industries by changing how we trade, work, learn, socialise and access services.

Download Full Report

Download Speech by Joel Netshitenzhe

MISTRA, in partnership with the University of Johannesburg, hosted its Mapungubwe 12^thAnnual Lecture at the beginning of August. The Annual Lecture occupies a prestigious place in the intellectual landscape of South Africa. It has attracted wide audiences and a diverse range of speakers, nationally, continentally and globally since it was first held in 2012.

This year’s lecture was delivered by South African lawyer, public speaker and author, Adv Tembeka Ngcukaitobi SC. The theme of his address was: Constitutionalism and its malcontents: Critiques of Constitutionalism 30 Years On. It was one of MISTRA’s most widely watched event, with over 70 thousand views on YouTube and other channels.

Download the Paper

Watch the Recording

After years of research and active engagement with communities, civil society, business and government, the Indlulamithi South Africa Scenarios Trust has put together realistic trajectories of what the future of South Africa may look like by 2035. And these scenarios have now been published as a book, called: Journeys into our Future: South Africa 2024 – 2035.

The scenarios serve as a glimpse into potential futures, offering narratives that examine various trajectories that our nation might follow, as influenced by significant trends and dynamics. The book launch event saw the unveiling of the full Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035 text, with a detailed outline of how these scenarios were conceptualised. It was addressed by Speaker of the National Assembly, Thoko Didiza, and Nolitha Fakude, Chairman of Anglo American’s Management Board in South Africa.

Download Journeys into our Future

Watch the Recording

MISTRA: Analysis of South Africa's 2024 Elections and the Coalitions Aftermath

Voters had their say in South Africa’s 7th democratic national election at the end of May. MISTRA’s report analyses their choices and the nature of the coalition governments that resulted.

The report assesses:

Election results and trends: The most important trends in Election 2024, both nationally and provincially, are identified and examined. The analysis covers both political parties’ results and patterns of turnout and participation.
Coalition negotiations: The negotiations towards establishing a government in the wake of the elections.
The coalition governments established: The report assesses the configuration, the constitution and viability of coalition governments set up in the post-election period at all relevant sites, both national and provincial.

Download the Full Report

Watch the Recording

This two-day hybrid conference will unpack the complexities of global geopolitics and explore how the African continent can respond to global power competition.

Written by Joel Netshitenzhe this paper (an edited version of which forms part of the MISTRA Elections Report) interrogates some of the major trends in the outcome of the 2024 national and provincial elections against the backdrop of South Africa’s broad political economy.

Much of the analysis of the election results concludes that a fundamental shift has occurred in South Africa’s body politic. But, in large measure, that is where the consensus ends.

Some questions that need further interrogation include:

Does plummeting ANC support imply the death of the liberation idea?
Is South Africa’s ideological centre of gravity shifting left or right?
What are the implications of the coalescence of the centre-left and centre-right in the multi-party Government of National Unity (GNU)?
Is it conceptually appropriate to draw parallels between the current GNU and the 1994 political arrangement?

None of these questions lend themselves to easy answers. However, the electoral facts and figures do point to important macrosocial trends.

Download the Working Paper

South Africa has set itself the objective of building a developmental state. This entails, among other tasks, crafting a long-term vision and plan and forging both the macro- and micro-organisational underpinnings necessary to realise this objective. This paper, written by our Executive Director, Joel Netshitenzhe, examines the notion of a developmental state and the discourse around national planning in the current global conjuncture. An edited version of the paper is to appear as a chapter in MISTRA's forthcoming publication on The State of the South African sate.

Download the Working Paper