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May 18, 2025
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
1) Today, May 18, marks 590 days since October 7, 2023. The Hamas-led attack on Simchat Torah resulted in 1,182 fatalities (including 44 Americans) and over 4,000 wounded. 251 hostages (210 alive, 41 dead bodies) were taken during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence. It was the largest single massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, with more than one in every 10,000 Israelis killed, and the third overall deadliest terrorist attack in the world to date.
2) The 58 remaining hostages, 35 known to be dead, 20 thought to be alive, and three of unknown status, include four Americans. Edan Alexander, the only remaining American still alive, returned home last week. Hamas holds the bodies of Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai, and Gad Haggai. Releasing all the hostages might not be priorities for Trump and Netanyahu, but it's a top priority for us. We must continue to speak out for an immediate end to the Gaza war and the immediate return of all remaining hostages, living and dead.
3) Trump did not include Israel in the negotiations for Edan Alexander's release, nor did he visit Israel--or Edan--when he was in the Middle East last week.
4) A new poll found that Jewish voters disapprove of nearly all of Trump's agenda. His overall approval rating among Jewish voters is 26%. Majorities believe Trump is dangerous (72%), racist (69%), fascist (69%), and antisemitic (52%). Younger Jews are less concerned about antisemitism on college campuses than older Jews.
5) The poll confirms that more Jewish voters trust Democrats more than Republicans or Trump to fight antisemitism and are more concerned about antisemitism originating on the right than from the left.
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Hi Steve,
American-Israeli citizen Edan Alexander returned from Hamas captivity last week. None of us can imagine what he endured. Edan, a soldier in the Golani Brigade's 51st Battalion, had volunteered to stay on base on the Gaza border for Shabbat and was kidnapped by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Lahav Harkov points out that "although he was a soldier captured at a military outpost, Hamas gave Edan Alexander none of the rights of a prisoner of war. They starved him. They tortured him. They didn’t let the Red Cross visit him."
As joyful as we are that he is back home, we cannot rest until all 58 remaining hostages are back home. Yesterday, after Shabbat services, Israeli journalist Amir Tibon spoke at my synagogue in front of a packed room. Tibon survived Hamas's attack on his kibbutz on October 7, 2023. He is the author of Gates of Gaza, the essential book on what happened that terrible day.
Tibon said that the Gaza war is becoming "Israel's Vietnam" and that Israel's military is built to fight and win short wars. The Gaza war, now in its 20th month, is the longest war in Israel's history.
Tibon understands the risks of ending the war with Hamas still functioning and the risk of releasing more Palestinian terrorists. Coincidentally, Eylon Levy articulated the dilemma Israel faces in a post yesterday that referenced the Israeli ethos that Tibon cited: You don't leave anyone behind.
Tibon understands the dilemma, but for Tibon, the solution is clear: An immediate end to the war and the immediate return of all the hostages, living and dead.
The living hostages don't have much time, whereas Israel does have time to address the other issues. There is no time for phased releases and temporary ceasefires.
Tibon warned that Netanyahu will attempt to persuade the organized Jewish community to oppose any pressure from the Trump administration to agree to the deal on the table, which would essentially end the war and bring home the hostages. It's up to us to support the hostages.
Hamas brutally murdered Kfir and Ariel Bibas, two beautiful young children, as well as their mother, Shiri Bibas. Her husband and their father, Yarden Bibas, survived 484 hellish days in Gaza.
Referring to a shirt that Yarden wears in support of the remaining hostages, Tibon told us to support "Bibas, not Bibi" even if, in this case, that means supporting pressure from Trump on Netanyahu to agree to end the war in exchange for the return of all remaining hostages.
But does Trump care? Now that the last living American is free, we cannot let Trump trade away or forget the remaining 58 hostages.
Trump's deal with the Houthis only applied to U.S. interests. It included no prohibition on Houthi missile attacks on Israel. As Shalom Lipner writes, Israel is learning that there is no carve-out for Israel in "America First."
Trump negotiated Edan Alexander's release without including Israel in the negotiations. We don't know what Trump promised Hamas or Qatar in exchange for his release. Rob Eshman reports that Trump dealt with Hamas operatives through an American Trump supporter who wrote, “We would rather die in Palestine than leave it to the Israelis.”
On October 7, 2023, President Biden had no plans to visit the Middle East. On October 18, 2023, President Biden was in Israel, becoming the first president to visit Israel during wartime. He went to Israel to reassure Israel and to tell the world that the U.S. would always have Israel's back.
Last week, Trump visited the Middle East for the first time in his second term. Israel is still at war. Trump met with the leaders of countries that do not recognize Israel's right to exist. Trump could not find time to visit Israel. He could not find time to visit Edan Alexander.
Instead of signalling to Israel and the world that the U.S. stands with Israel, Trump is signalling that he views Israel as non-essential. His snubs of Israel have become a pattern.
Ben Sales and JDCA have the receipts. Explaining Trump's second-term shift away from Israel, Joshua Keating writes, "Trump seems remarkably unconcerned about appearing to be on the same page as the Israelis in his approach to the region, and has repeatedly negotiated directly with Israel’s main adversaries while cutting Israel out entirely."
Trump's what-in-it-for-me transactional approach to foreign policy is leaving Israel out in the cold. As Michael Koplow writes, "When Trump looks at Israel, he sees a country that will not invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S., will not hew to his non-interventionist instincts, and is constantly asking for things that make his life harder rather than easier. For Trump, Israel has transformed from a source of reliable wins to one of reliable headaches."
If you're looking for that one article, not too long, that might persuade your right-wing friends that Trump's second term does not portend well for Israel, share this from Melanie Phillips. You don't have to agree with all of it but if your friends are open-minded, they will.
Let's see if Trump proves us wrong, at least on one issue, by successfully working to end the Gaza war and bring home all 58 remaining hostages.
A new poll shows that Trump is not fooling Jewish voters. A new poll of Jewish voters conducted by GBAO Strategies for the Jewish Voters Resource Center found that Jewish voters disapprove of nearly all of Trump's agenda.
Majorities believe Trump is dangerous (72%), racist (69%), fascist (69%), and antisemitic (52%). Let that sink in. A majority of Jewish voters think that the President of the United States is antisemitic (they're not wrong).
Trump's overall approval rating among Jewish voters is 26%.
64% of Jewish voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing to combat antisemitism.
61% think that deporting pro-Palestinian protesters will increase antisemitism.
49% think that withholding federal funding from colleges and universities that the Trump administration says do not take strong enough action to combat antisemitism will increase antisemitism (25% think it will decrease antisemitism, and the rest think it will have no impact).
Jewish voters trust Democrats more than Republicans or Trump to fight antisemitism.
Jewish voters are more concerned about antisemitism originating on the right than from the left. They should be. Elad Nehorai explains that anti-Israel rhetoric is fueling an alarmingly powerful new wave of antisemitism on the right, and Trump’s changed attitude to Israel is only the first consequence.
Most Jewish voters are concerned about antisemitism (no surprise), but not as many (still a majority) are concerned particularly about antisemitism on college campuses.
Concern about antisemitism on college campuses drops as age drops. Less than 40% of young Jewish voters are "very concerned" about antisemitism on college campuses compared to 70% of Jewish voters 65 and older.
In other words, those who most recently lived on college campuses are the least concerned. Those who are furthest away in time from college are the most concerned.
Why? Perhaps because younger Jews can see for themselves what is happening on campus, whereas older Jews rely on organizations and media that have a financial incentive to exaggerate the extent of antisemitism on campus. When was the last time you received a fundraising email that began, "It's not as bad as you think"?
Another possibility is that younger Jews define "antisemitism" differently. For example, older Jews might see kids on campus chanting "Palestine will be free from the river to the sea" and think that's antisemitic. Younger Jews might know some of those protesters or at least understand that the slogan is not necessarily antisemitic. In many ways, it's more of a Rorschach test.
Orthodox Jewish voters are not a monolith, but the poll found that overall, they are often outliers on some of these issues. Orthodox Jews account for only 9% of the Jewish voting population.
Just because most Jews hold certain opinions does not mean that the opinions they hold are correct. It does mean that Jewish organizations that take positions contrary to what most Jews think or who fail to advocate for what most Jews believe might be speaking for someone, but not for us.
When the Senate considers Trump's nomination of Yehuda Kaploun, Trump's unqualified new nominee for Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism, it should find out whether Kaploun's views on antisemitism align with the views of most Jewish Americans.
Delve into the poll yourself. Good summaries include reports in JTA, RawStory, and Israel HaYom.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one pointed out any errors in last week's newsletter.
A person who's been reading my newsletter since June 22, 2021, unsubscribed because "so many emails on the same subject." I'm not sure what she expected from a newsletter that calls itself a pro-Israel political update or why it took her four years to notice. I promise the rest of you that as soon as we solve all the problems in the Middle East, I'll shift the focus of this newsletter to kittens and puppies.
In Case You Missed It:
1) New Report: Multiple Trump White House officials have ties with antisemitic extremists.
2) Ami Fields-Meyer: What I said to a national convening of Jewish Democrats. I was there. If you weren't, take the time to read this.
3) Rob Eshman: A judge just released another pro-Palestinian activist. Here’s why that’s good for the Jews.
4) Ilan Goldenberg: The U.S.-Israel special relationship is in danger unless Israel changes course.
5) Hamas praised as a "heroic act" the fatal shooting of an Israeli woman on her way to the hospital to give birth.
6) May is Jewish American Heritage Month (JAHM). JAHM was first introduced as a resolution in the House by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and in the Senate by the late Arlen Specter in 2006. Passing unanimously, it was then established by presidential proclamation and has been renewed every May by every president since then (still waiting for Trump's proclamation in his second term). This year's resolution passed the House 421-1.
7) Eric Alterman wrote a long, important piece on the coming Jewish civil war over Donald Trump. It's worth your time because it explains what's happening and what will happen within the Jewish community during Trump's second term.
8) Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss announced his candidacy for the Illinois 9th congressional district seat that will open up following Rep. Jan Schakowsky's retirement. He's my choice.
9) Timothy Noah explains that tax cuts do not increase revenue. The GOP is again resurrecting the debunked myth that they do in the current budget negotiations.
Social Post of the Week. Jewish Wonk.
Video Clip of the Week. Paul McCartney's joke.
Vintage Music Clip of the Week. Won't Get Fooled Again.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on the IHRA definition of antisemitism and on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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