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Is this the "It's Always SOMETHING" moment for this cycle?...OR not?
| | I had a few topics to speak of in mind, but this one is festering in me. Question: is this the "it's always something" moment for this cycle? I ask because, virtually every moment over the past 6-7 years (excluding the rubber band effect we had post-pandemic in 2021), the market surges we had anticipated at the time, all got tripped-up by SOMETHING. In 2019, it was The Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act of 2019 (a big name for “what a disaster”); then in 2020 it was the pandemic; (2021 was the snap-back like something we will never see again); in 2022 it was the war in Ukraine, followed immediately by the beginnings of the spike in interest rate; in 2023 it was the Regional Banking crisis and rates that were still rising (up to 8% in Oct 2023); 2024 was simply the continued malaise of sticky 7% rates; 2025 was Liberation Day and now in 2026…the moment we hit 6% on the 30 year jumbo mortgage and sub-6% for the conforming, here comes the war in Iran, causing rates to abruptly reverse course and pop up several points. | | Chart courtesy: OptimalBlue | | My observation is this. This only affects deal volume, not pricing so much, or even the availability of opportunity. We have to differentiate between the two circumstances. Enduring those 6-7 years of headwinds has indeed diminished overall deal volume (meaning fewer transactions), but not value. That reduced activity is largely because of constrained inventory; with fewer homes to sell, there are fewer deals. It’s like food; put some food out on the table and it gets eaten. When there’s less food, fewer people eat. The reason value has not diminished is because in Manhattan, there is always a core level of demand. It’s like water, if there’s a crack it seeps in or when you inadvertently step into that slushy corner just off the sidewalk and your foot becomes submerged; instantaneously, you can feel that water get to your foot. That level of demand is constant and sustains us in a buoyant place. So deal volume contracts because of lower inventory, but pricing and value (which have a natural tendency to rise in “normal” circumstances, something we have not been able attain for years now) remain stable. That is a sign of a healthy and stable marketplace. | | Chart courtesy: UrbanDigs | | |
The lack of inventory (which is caused this dynamic) has been a result of elevated interest rates….sellers reluctant to put their properties on the market. But why? Why would a seller care about interest rates? Well, 1) limited inventory affects them too, because they can’t find what they want either; 2) if they’re looking to upgrade, higher interest rates will cost them more money to move; 3) regardless of upsizing or downsizing, a lot of people are favorably locked into a lower interest rate then they can get today, which if you really want to move, is a bit of a curse. You end up not moving on with your life’s pursuits and goals because you’re afraid to lose that rate. These are just a few reasons; there’re more.
But all of that should be further differentiated from the fact that quality deals are still indeed taking place and the fact that pricing has remained overwhelmingly stable. If you’re a seller, the fact that you would only be competing with a few properties is a very strong place to be; you have leverage than you think. And for buyers, pricing is still flat…and the fact that some people will now sit back down because of the “war” and that pop in rates, presents opportunity for less competition.
So, is it the beginnings of the next "It's Always Something" moment? Probably. Those who faced all those obstacles identified opportunity and have been building equity for years now. Consider the moment.
| | Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them. Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. | | The Dakota is the crown jewel among the most extraordinary residences of Central Park West. It's the most storied residential building in New York's long history. The late 1870s was a time of burgeoning prosperity. A post-war boom saw the proliferation of Mansion and Townhouse living for the affluent; it was a representation of status. It was then that Edward Cabot Clark, architect of the Singer Sewing Machine Company fortune, conceived of an apartment house to be built, as an alternative, for precisely those affluent who preferred not manage the responsibilities of caring for a house. His vision was to preserve the aspirational and distinctive way of life characterized by sophistication, exquisite taste, privacy, pleasure and service for those accustomed. This was to be a house of a different kind. Click here to see the full listing details. | | One of the select-few truly exclusive and distinguished boutique cooperatives on all of Park Avenue..."all limestone, with double sets of Florentine-style windows and with only one five-bedroom apartment per floor"...nearly 70 feet of frontage facing Park Avenue...extraordinary volume...10’ ceilings…innumerable, large outward facing windows...four exposures...views and streams of sun and light throughout...private elevator landing and 375 sqft entry gallery, perfect for art...SE facing living room...oversized dining room...south facing library...an unusual and seductive corridor, 7 feet wide and nearly 48 feet long, perfect for art…commodious primary bedroom suite...and what was once described as a home with “six servants’ rooms, including a separate section for the butler and the second man” is now is currently 15 rooms, inclusive of 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms and two staff rooms...unparalleled location, in close proximity to world class restaurants, shopping, entertainment, art and culture, including the Metropolitan Museum of Art, The Frick Collection, Lincoln Center…this list goes on...Click here to see the video and more. | |
Quote of the Year thus far: | | * MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
While inventory is seeing the bloom of some additional inventory, supply is still tight; consequently, we are seeing record level pricing and lower deal volume from last year at this time. Median prices have already been at record highs at approx. $2.3M, some 30%+ over last year. As usual, the high end of the marketplace (the top 10%) had a median sales price in excess of $11M, with a record number of sales above $5M. Considering the lower deal volume, it shows that prices are most affected by product type and good quality (which sets a premium). Buyers are keen to buy prime, turnkey, and waterfront homes, especially in the $2-5M+ range. The uber-high end, above $20M is, as always, evidenced by the closing of a $30M property already.
For sellers, this is still a favorable environment if the property is well-located, updated, and priced correctly. Buyers are paying record prices for scarce, desirable homes. For buyers, the market is offering a bit more choice, but the best inventory remains competitive and often sells instantaneously once it is priced in line with recent comps.
| | * WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | | |
Click on each respective image to watch the video.
| | Above charts courtesy: Mortgage News Daily | | * MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | | It was an honor to have been invited to and participate on a panel at this years SIMED conference in Malaga, Spain. We discussed the global future of luxury...the trends and the must-have experiences demanded by the ever-growing international buyer population. Centrally located on the global map with an average of 300 days of sun annually, there are many extraordinary opportunities in this region of Andalucia, which include Marbella and Estepona. Reach out to me if you would like to learn more; we can discuss your interests, goals and specific needs. Click here to see an impressive presentation on Malaga City's growth. | | Van Gogh’s Sunflowers and details. The nuance and complexity of paintings constantly challenge measurement methods. Vincent van Gogh (Dutch, 1853–1890). Sunflowers, 1887. Oil on canvas, 17 x 24 in. (43.2 x 61 cm). The Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York, Rogers Fund, 1949 (49.41) | | |
Vincent van Gogh continues to inspire efforts to improve
imaging standards for color reproduction, including in 3D.
In the late summer of 1887 when Vincent van Gogh painted a series of four still lifes of sunflowers in Paris, he explored the boundaries of color theory to create harmony and contrast. One of those stunning paintings, representing his early studies of the subject, hangs in Gallery 825 at The Met. The orange and its adjacent colors, yellow and green, create a visual flow, while the inclusion of the opposite color blue adds energy and contrast. Viewing this painting in person, its palette and brushwork convey nuance and a powerful sense of immediacy. When this work was created almost 140 years ago, photography was still a relatively new medium; today, it serves as a vital way for online viewers to access and experience the work. Reflecting on how this specific painting has been photographed and distributed offers valuable insight into the developments in photographic representation and the ongoing challenges related to documenting and sharing images of artworks. For more click here.
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The 100 Best Restaurants
In New York City for 2025
(according to the New York Times - click here)
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Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
| | Photo by Evan Sung, courtesy Ambassadors Club | | |
Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now. This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in March: New Flatiron Indian restaurant, Ambassadors Clubhouse, Philly import Double Knot, Beto’s Carnitas and Guisados on the Lower East Side, the ambitious Or’esh from the Corner Store folks, and the new location for Kjun. We’ve dropped Thai Lalyn, kaiseki Muku, LES Korean cafe bar Tera, and Arvine in the West Village.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
| | Photo by Dan Ahn, courtesy of Boro Brine | | |
New to the Hit List (March 2026):
New to The Hit List on Resy
Makina Cafe, Popina, The Dead Rabbit, Border Town, Boro Brine, Leland Eating & Drinking House, Peking Duck House, Tera, Folk, and Ariari.
For the full list...keep reading here.
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ARE RESTAURANTS SPYING ON YOU?
Is it a restaurant
. . . or is it the CIA?
The show Cheers got it right: we all like to go where everybody knows our name. But how much more do we want our favorite restaurant to know about us? Read Article.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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| | | Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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