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"Beware The Fed Rate Cut"
It's not always what you think
| | The market feels really busy. There’s a buzz we’ve not seen in years. That said, we’ve yet to see it translate into the numbers. Inventory is up from a seasonal perspective but, below the seasonal average. In the chart below, you can see how it has been consistently contracting for years now; consequently, it’s affected deal volume as well. Where we are seeing the most activity is in well/accurately priced property; when buyers see value they execute. The most robust activity is coming from the luxury side of the market (generally considered to be the top 10%), which continues to pump at a higher rate. Note, these are the people who generally pay cash and are far less affected my mortgage rates. | | |
Which leads us to this month’s message…although mortgage rates have naturally eased to their lowest level in 3 years (see chart in the "Mortgage Rates" section of this newsletter below)...Beware The Fed Rate Cut! That’s right!
We generally think of rate cuts as stimulative; however, we’ve learned that’s not necessarily the case when it comes to mortgage rates. I am increasingly hearing about people wanting to wait for the newly appointed Fed Chair to take his position and lower interest rates. The problem is this, we have learned that such a move downward in short-term rates (which is what the Fed actually controls) could send the longer term rates, like the 30 year mortgage, in the opposite direction. This was evidenced in a few of the recent; they were deemed by financial markets to be forced or premature and ironically, to everyone’s dismay, resulted in those longer-term mortgage rates moving higher. When financial markets feel these moves are not organic and more artificial in nature, they compensate by allowing the longer-term rates to float upward. These markets are extremely efficient and tend toward balance.
So if you’re planning to buy, get to it sooner rather than later. For years now, against all odds: damaging policy, the pandemic, a doubling of mortgage rates and even now…unpredictable leadership, we have had moderate deal volume and relatively flat prices. With the optimism we see and the demand we know of, the market is positioned to see consistent positive growth for several years to come, meaning that the earlier you get in the better.
| | Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them. Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. | | It was an honor to have been invited to and participate on a panel at this years SIMED conference in Malaga, Spain. We discussed the global future of luxury...the trends and the must-have experiences demanded by the ever-growing international buyer population. Centrally located on the global map with an average of 300 days of sun annually, there are many extraordinary opportunities in this region of Andalucia, which include Marbella and Estepona. Reach out to me if you would like to learn more; we can discuss your interests, goals and specific needs. Click here to see an impressive presentation on Malaga City's growth. | | * MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | One of the select-few truly exclusive and distinguished boutique cooperatives on all of Park Avenue..."all limestone, with double sets of Florentine-style windows and with only one five-bedroom apartment per floor"...nearly 70 feet of frontage facing Park Avenue...extraordinary volume...10’ ceilings…innumerable, large outward facing windows...four exposures...views and streams of sun and light throughout...private elevator landing and 375 sqft entry gallery, perfect for art...SE facing living room...oversized dining room...south facing library...an unusual and seductive corridor, 7 feet wide and nearly 48 feet long, perfect for art…commodious primary bedroom suite...and what was once described as a home with “six servants’ rooms, including a separate section for the butler and the second man” is now is currently 15 rooms, inclusive of 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms and two staff rooms...unparalleled location, in close proximity to world class restaurants, shopping, entertainment, art and culture, including the Metropolitan Museum of Art, The Frick Collection, Lincoln Center…this list goes on...Click here to see the video and more. | | |
In the Hamptons pricing is hovering at record highs as we go into February 2026. The 4th quarter of 2025 showed median prices in the mid-$2M range, while average pricing has been in the mid‑$3M–$4M. The latter, which tends to skew because of the luxury properties, has seen a surge in 5M+, $10M+, and even $20M+ deals being done. Like Manhattan, the strength lies in truly finished and renovated properties in prime locations. While Wall Street's performance from last year is driving demand in that sector and making inventory tight; inventory as a whole does seem to be loosening up a bit.
At this exact moment, possibly weather related, winter deal activity has been light, but better than some of the lows of 2024. What that means is that it again reflects Manhattan, in that sellers with well‑priced, high‑quality product have leverage. If you're not seeking those trophy properties , the leverage is a bit more balanced.
| | * WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | | |
Click on each respective image to watch the video.
| | Above charts courtesy: Mortgage News Daily | | * MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | |
High Wire:
Calder’s Circus at 100
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In its final weeks...ends March 9, 2026.
In 1926 as a young American artist living in Paris, Alexander Calder (1898–1976) began making what is today considered his most formative work of art: Calder’s Circus. Calder created a miniature spectacle of circus animals and characters that he would enact for live audiences, complete with handmade stage props, music, and lighting. Performances of the multiact Calder’s Circus, or Cirque Calder in French, sometimes lasted as long as two hours and drew audiences from the city’s avant-garde, including fellow artists Marcel Duchamp, Joan Miró, Piet Mondrian, and Isamu Noguchi. Calder would perch on the floor manipulating the figures—each crafted from ordinary materials, such as wire, wood, metal, cork, fabric, and string—which, through his mechanical inventiveness and the pliability of their bodies, would fly through the air, swallow swords, and accomplish other daring feats. Like many artists at the time, Calder was fascinated by the circus, and he relished not just its broad popular appeal and dramatic risk-taking, but also its structure and kinetics: “I love the mechanics of the thing—and the vast space—and the spotlight.”
High Wire: Calder’s Circus at 100 marks the centennial anniversary of this iconic work by bringing it together with other examples of Calder’s circus-themed wire sculptures and drawings, related archival material, and early examples of his abstract sculptures. For Calder, the circus offered a dynamic subject through which he could explore the core ideas of balance and movement that would define his artwork from 1931 onward, especially his invention of the “mobile” sculpture—an origin story for an artist who once claimed, “I think best in wire.”
Click here.
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The 100 Best Restaurants
In New York City for 2025
(according to the New York Times - click here)
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Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now. This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in February: new kaiseki izakaya Odo East Village, Vegas steakhouse import Golden Steer, and Chinese noodle restaurant Rulin. And, for now, we’ve removed Txula Steak, Traveler, and Taishoken.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
| | Falansai’s signature Vietnamese tamales. Photo by Ben Hon for Resy | | |
New to the Hit List (January 2026):
New on Resy
New on Resy: February is also Black History Month, and what better time to visit the city’s incredible Black-owned restaurants? From innovative plant-based fare from Aunts et Uncles to comforting Senegalese fare at Cafe Rue Dix and thrilling Caribbean dishes over at Negril Village, there’s so much to savor. Find even more options here.
For the full list...keep reading here.
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ARE RESTAURANTS SPYING ON YOU?
Is it a restaurant
. . . or is it the CIA?
The show Cheers got it right: we all like to go where everybody knows our name. But how much more do we want our favorite restaurant to know about us? Read Article.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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Brown Harris Stevens
1934 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
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| | | Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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