Like the World Series of the 1950s & 60s...
...once in a while...the Dodgers (Buyers)
actually beat the Yankees (Sellers)
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We have gone from record-low rates to rising rates…and rising…and rising, and then…we began to hear the phrase “higher for longer” (meaning sustained high levels). And now we’re actually beginning to hear predictions about rate cuts. Premature as they may be, some predictions are signaling a rate drop as early as mid/late Spring, while others say not until Q4 2024. The fact is, no one really knows when rates will actually come down, especially with a strong economy which shows consumer spending still strong, the unemployment rate at a relatively low 4% and inflation still above the target rate. Regardless, a more positive narrative is on the horizon.
This doesn’t mean back to normal (whatever that means), but it does mean that sentiment will improve and players on both sides (buyers and sellers) will come back to the dance floor. The question is, what song will be playing? Probably a Waltz, but it COULD plausibly gravitate to some sort House music. Increasing numbers of sellers who have been on the sidelines, waiting for rates to moderate, will finally choose to list. The elevated inventory will also seduce those buyers who’ve been waiting for improved affordability. The result should be a busy and competitive Spring.
Until then though, the market remains heavily in favor of the buyer (a rare instance over the past 25-30 years)…Why?
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Inventory is lean (relatively), approximately 4.1% lower than a year ago; but there are still nearly 6,600 properties on the market.
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Deal Volume is 12% lower year-on-year for the 12 months leading into November.
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Prices are approximately 7-9% lower than one year ago. For a while this had not seemed to be the case, partially because the data on actual sold and closed deals always lags. This also means that the deals being done now will likely print at even lower numbers come February and March. The reality is, it’s been a slow and methodical erosion which will need to be respected by sellers as they enter the marketplace this Spring.
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Sentient is at an all-time high level of “meh”.
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…and all of this is compounded by a heavy dose of seasonality. We are in one of most notoriously slow times of the year, Thanksgiving to mid-January, when the masses check out due to holiday demands and travel and bonus earners choose to hold off to see what they will actually earn.
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Click on each respective chart to expand. Courtesy: UrbanDigs
The sluggish market activity has overwhelmingly been driven by the high interest rates. Buyers have been substantially affected by affordability while sellers have been resistant to relinquish their 3% mortgage rates to simply turn around and become buyers themselves. Who can blame them when staring 7.5 - 8% in the face? Here’s the rub…high interest rates are a better evil than competition. The higher rates have actually been protecting real buyers from robust competition. It’s hard to communicate how futile it feels when you are competing for a property with other bidders. Mortgage rates can be refinanced, but if you cannot secure a property to begin with, there is nothing to refinance. Remember, the greatest barrier to entry into the Manhattan market is not the price (or even the interest rates), it’s the competition.
Even now, there are properties that garner immediate attention and sell quickly with multiple interested parties. These are generally special and/or well-priced properties that stand out among the host of stale ones that have been languishing.
As bad as one might interpret all this, right now is an extraordinary opportunity to find a good property and buy it. This seasonal slowdown we are experiencing is compounding the prior 15 months of weak deal volume. However, buyers will emerge by late January and beyond. This momentum generally builds and remains sustained until June, with the peak happening somewhere in the middle. The wild cards right now are the interest rates; people are seeking certainty. Right now, this certainty would be defined by just knowing rates will not go up further. For others though, it won’t be until they actually see a cut in rates. When that occurs (perhaps mid-late 2024), the masses will indeed join the dance floor. We will look back on the end of 2023 and the onset of 2024, much as we did following Sept 11th in 2001, the Spring of 2009 after the financial crisis and the Fall of 2020, as we emerged from Covid. This will be the opportunity defined just prior to the interest rate thaw. Consider the moment.
Note: the market is infinitely segmented, from a park block Upper East Side townhouse to a Tribeca loft to an Upper West Side pied-a-terre to a Billionaire’s Row luxury condo in the sky…you name it, your needs are unique. Please feel free to reach out to me to discuss all of this data and how it affects your personal segment of the market.
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I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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Except for dreaming of the sun, there's no real change here. Seasonal shopping seems to be back to pre-pandemic times. Inventory pressures have eased and there's to be a bit more time to absorb the inventory. With time, meaning over the next 12-24 months, we should be seeing more opportunities revealing themselves.
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity for you and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area,
around the country and even globally.
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Thursday's from 3-4pm
See you then.
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* What representation looks like * |
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Click on each respective image to see video. |
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Second-Half 2021 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here
Other Markets:
Hoboken/Jersey City 3rd Quarter (2023): click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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ED RUSCHA / NOW THEN
On view through January 13, 2024
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“I don’t have any Seine River like Monet,” Ed Ruscha once said. “I’ve just got US 66 between Oklahoma and Los Angeles.” ED RUSCHA / NOW THEN will feature over 200 works—in mediums including painting, drawing, prints, photography, artist’s books, film, and installation—that make use of everything from gunpowder to chocolate. Exploring Ruscha’s landmark contributions to postwar American art as well as lesser-known aspects of his more than six-decade career, the exhibition will offer new perspectives on a body of work that has influenced generations of artists, architects, designers, and writers.
In 1956, Ruscha left his hometown of Oklahoma City and drove along interstate highway 66 to study commercial art in Los Angeles, where he drew inspiration from the city’s architecture, colloquial speech, and popular culture. Ruscha has recorded and transformed familiar subjects—whether roadside gasoline stations or the 20th Century Fox logo—often revisiting motifs, sites, or words years later. Tracing shifts in the artist’s means and methods over time, ED RUSCHA / NOW THEN underscores the continuous reinvention that has defined his work."
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Café Chelsea (above) was hands down my favorite meal of the year! |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in December: Le Relais de Venise L’Entrecôte, an affordable steakhouse gone viral; Kolachi a fast-casual paratha rolls spot; Café Carmellini from seasoned restaurateur Andrew Carmellini; and Metropolis, from celebrity chef Marcus Samuelsson.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Upcoming Courses include:
Note: These are live, virtual courses hosted by Roundtable, which include interactive opportunities and post-course recordings available for all course participants.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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Curate provides you with the ability to prepare your home for sale
with no up-front costs,100% payable at closing.
Services include Cleaning/Decluttering, Renovation, Staging & Design
and more. Contact me and/or click here to learn more.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
1926 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
(917) 701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals.
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