The case for the timing of "now" |
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Click on the image above to see a video version of this report. |
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I am often accused of saying it’s always a good time to buy. People read this newsletter and say, “you make it seem so rosy” or “you make it seem like it’s a good time to buy and then turn around and tell the sellers that it’s a good time to sell.” Well…there is truth in all of this and here’s why…at least here is my approach.
Regardless of which side of the equation you are on (buying or selling), everyone’s goals are unique. Generally speaking, in life, if you just get on with it, you’re better off. I have learned that those who take action are the most successful. They may fail from time to time, but their victories supersede their failures and they are the winners. For some, perhaps that’s too general, or vague; so let’s break it down.
So let’s take buying first. Too many buyers try to “time” the market; this is a fool’s errand, as the market will change like the weather. When going from Winter to Summer the weather can get cold then hot and back again, innumerable times, depending on the day; it may even rain, sleet etc.….hard to predict. But generally, you know that as you gravitate into summer it’s going to get warmer. The market is the same, we have fluctuations from day to day and from seasonal-market-cycle to seasonal-market-cycle, but the trend is generally upward over longer periods of time. Meaning, if you are in it for the right time horizon and you experience “time in the market”, instead of “timing” the market, you are likely to fare far better in the end. Over the years you will have built equity in the property and not thrown money away on rent. I must caveat this with the assumption that these buyers are buyers seeking to create a “home”, which has its own unquantifiable and unique attributes and rewards. Buying property, as an investor, may assume completely different considerations, goals and time horizons and applies to a lesser degree to my premise. In Manhattan though, where rents are extremely high (the highest in the country), my premise remains acutely true.
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Click on each respective chart to expand. Courtesy: UrbanDigs
Now let’s put this into further context. Baby boomers have accumulated an overwhelming amount of wealth, much of it in the form of cash. To give you a sense of how much compare this: many estimates show that $5-6 Trillion were infused into the economy over the past three years…something we have never seen before. However, over the next 20 years, similar estimates state that $50-70 Trillion of wealth (~10X) will be handed over from Boomers to the younger generations (this will come in various forms, half of which will come as real estate and cash). Much of this wealth will be used to purchase what is the premiere asset class…real estate. Over the course of the next 15-20 years this cash, coupled with the desire to buy real estate, will be used not only to buy second and third homes, but homes for their kids and grandkids, as well investment properties. Now think, what will that level of demand do to prices (and hence, value) over the coming decades, especially if the scarcity of supply remains an issue?
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We are still experiencing lingering effects of the 2008 housing crisis. The level of new construction, over the past decade and a half since, has been substantially lower than in the 90s and early 2000s. More recently the higher interest rates and government regulations have put even more pressure on this slow down; thankfully there is light at the end of the tunnel for interest rates. Another factor is the wave of new buyers (mostly Millennials) who are entering the marketplace with every year that passes. This measurably higher demand, into the future, means that we may never have enough inventory to satisfy our needs.
Imagine if you bought a good property now (sooner rather than later)? The tide (in this case, the wave of transferred wealth) will raise ALL boats. It is precisely this which is the basis of my premise, that it’s almost always, “generally”, a good time to buy. You just need to find the right property for YOUR unique circumstances and time horizon.
In Manhattan, right now, we are seemingly bouncing along the bottom of the current cycle, a cycle in which we have witnessed a gradual decline in deal volume, as a consequence of demand, as a consequence of low inventory, as a consequence of a doubling of interest rates. Well, every rational indication is that interest rates have now stabilized and will eventually soften. So if you are STILL so inclined to “time” the market, because you simply cannot help yourself…particularly over the long haul, consider this extraordinary moment. Prices have softened some 8-10% in the last year and prices are reflecting a period somewhere between 2018-2019. Based on all the market fundamentals, particularly the low inventory levels and the impending drop in interest rates, this level of regression will not likely repeat itself soon. So…consider the moment of where we are now at the beginning of 2024 and compare it to where we might be in 2030, 2035, 40, 45…
Now selling is a slightly different proposition, as you can typically capitalize on customary market cycles and fare better. That said, each seller has a super-agenda for why exactly they are selling. Depending upon what that is may determine how proactively you execute your plan. Are you selling because: you are upgrading?, downsizing?, got a new job in a different neighborhood or city?, need the money etc.?...the scenarios are infinite. Historically there are moments in the year that are better to sell than others, like mid/late February through May and the short market that reveals itself in the Fall, post Labor Day into the first or second week of November. Conversely, late summer and Thanksgiving into late January would be considered the least fruitful times.
OPTIMAL TIME TO LIST
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Click on each respective chart to expand. Courtesy: UrbanDigs
Both scenarios are customarily determined by the number of buyers in the marketplace. With that information, you can be a bit more judicious about when you list; however, the point is still the same. In life, we are better off if we just get on with it. Some sellers painfully deliberate over every penny, when they would be better served and net a better result if they were to simply accept a solid outcome and move onto the next chapter. Some sellers put their lives on complete hold, while seeking a diminishing return to their bottom line. If they just get on with it, the unquantifiable rewards of living your life while attacking your life’s plan is what the doctor really ordered. When it is time to sell, one must consider the market conditions you have been given at that precise moment. Of course, it may very well pay off to wait several months or into the next year, but beyond that?...one risks eroding their emotional bottom line. You must maximize the market conditions you have been given, list at the right price and get it done.
So in both scenarios, it is about action and there is no better phrase that captures that than, “…there’s no time like the present.” So yes, I’m guilty as charged. But again, as mentioned at the onset this monologue, this is a broad stroke. Please contact me so we can have actually have a dialogue about the specifics of your situation.
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I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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As you might glean from John's article on CT (below), in the Hamptons, are we also in a "Dead Cat Bounce" scenario? Defined: "A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery of asset prices from a prolonged decline or bear market that's followed by a continuation of the downtrend." Average and median sales prices are at record levels. The 2023 average sold price rose by 1.9% to $3,090,855. This represents the highest year-end average price to date. The median sold price, measuring the middle of the market and less impacted by the extremes of either end, rose by 2.9% to $1,775,000. This also marks the highest year-end figure recorded.
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
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* CONNECTICUT *
- Dead Cat Bounce -
N E W C A N A A N
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The biggest story seems to STILL be inventory...or the lack there of: |
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Excerpt: "A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery from a prolonged decline or bear market that's followed by a continuation of the downtrend. In other words, it's a false optimism. Cats independent don't bounce.
I was wondering if that is what we are really experiencing in the housing market when we hear agents and buyers speak enthusiastically of volume picking up and high hopes for new listing inventory. Is all this optimism for new to inventory misplaced? As you can see in the graph going back 20-years we start every year with low inventory and inventory grows, peaking in June, and then drops steadily to a low point in February. That's right, the low point is February, not New Year's Day. There are only 39 houses on the market today, down from 42 last week, and this might not be the bottom. You think 39 is bad? Wilton, only has 7 homes on the market. Darien has 19. Ridgefield has 17. Rowayton has 6. Westport, 39% larger by population, has 42 listings, the only other bright spot. (I exclude listings of houses not finished, in some cases chart shows not started.)." Read the full article here.
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area,
around the country and even globally.
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Thursday's from 3-4pm
See you then.
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* What representation looks like * |
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Click on each respective image to see video. |
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Second-Half 2023 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here
Other Markets:
Hoboken/Jersey City 3rd Quarter (2023): click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Look Again:
European Paintings 1300–1800
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Join curators Stephan Wolohojian, Adam Eaker, David Pullins, and Anna-Claire Stinebring along with their special guests as they guide you through the newly reopened galleries dedicated to European Paintings from 1300 to 1800. The reconfigured galleries highlight fresh narratives and dialogues among more than 700 works of art from the Museum’s world-famous holdings, which include recently acquired paintings and prestigious loans, as well as select sculptures and decorative art, showcase the interconnectedness of cultures, materials, and moments across The Met collection.
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Sappe is a new restaurant in Chelsea from the team from Soothr. | Luke Fortney/Eater NY |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in February: New to the list in February: Coqodaq, a fried chicken spot from the Michelin-starred Cote team; Corima a Mexican tasting menu from an alum of Contra; and Sappe, Thai skewers from Soothr.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Rob Asks...What do you want for Valentines?
(click Image below to play)
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Upcoming Courses include:
Note: These are live, virtual courses hosted by Roundtable, which include interactive opportunities and post-course recordings available for all course participants.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
1926 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
(917) 701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals.
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