Seize the Market You're In | |
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How do you perceive the market? Half full? or Half Empty? It depends on your perspective and your circumstances. Seize the market you're in; time in the market virtually always trumps waiting. In this market it would be about securing the property you want while demand is moderate. It's only going to get more expensive and competitive from here. It’s like having the park to yourself in the winter; in the summer, when the conditions are optimal, it’s packed and they’re lines for everything.
Interest rates are in the 6-7% range for the foreseeable future…it is what it is. Note, the average 30-year fixed mortgage from 1971 to 2025 is 7.72%. So, ask yourself if you view the current situation as half-full or half-empty? In October 2023 rates were at 8%. The Fed set out to drop rates 1% in 2024 (which they did), another point in 2025 (which is a fading endeavor and will likely be a ½ point by year's end, if that) and a half point in 2026 (TBD). Regardless of the slowing pace of the drops, the psychological effect on the marketplace, coming off of 8%, has been positive.
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Chart Courtesy: Mortgage News Daily | |
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A hot economy, lower unemployment and sticky inflation continue to buoy mortgage rates; this will moderate what is STILL anticipated to be a robust year of deal-volume. Record rents will continue to pop holes into the damn of pent-up demand for purchasing. Buyers are adjusting their purchase budgets to match our new normal (in the 6-7% mortgage rate zone) and simply executing their life’s plans.
The more powerful of the headwinds will be inventory; expected to be less than ample, further solidifying the floor in prices. We are currently 7% lower than last year at this time and the lowest since 2016/17. This is important because, although measured, price trajectory is pointing upward. Statistically this will be enhanced, as sales in the luxury sector are expected to be brisk; the lower price points tend to be more challenged when inventory is tight and mortgage rates “feel” elevated-ish. Remember, unlike the whiplash in prices that affected the rest of the country due to the pandemic, Manhattan has had price stability, which encourages confidence.
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Chart Courtesy: UrbanDigs | |
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Conflicting signals: It’s a double edged sword. In order to have rates drop, the economy will have to slow and/or inflation will have to drop more. That scenario would be advantageous for a purchase, but not a good sign for the overall economy. While positive for buyers, lower rates do invite a lethal metric...competition…which translates to higher prices. Similar question, would you view one of these scenarios as half-full or half-empty versus the other? It's all in your perception; seize the market you are in.
The unpredictable: It will take time to learn the actual policy effects of the incoming administration. Issues like tariffs, tax cuts (including SALT) and immigration will all be factors. We’ll keep an eye on these together.
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I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. |
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* MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
Q4 in the Hamptons saw an approximate 20% increase in both inventory and deal volume over the same quarter in 2023, while median sales price eased by about 5%. Interestingly, that resembles a market of opportunity. The price decline is reflective of the sustained high interest rates which tend to affect the lower price points and secondary home market the most. The overwhelming bulk of the sales (75%) were below $3.5M with a quarter of the sales below $1M. Only about 18% of all sales were above $5M. | |
* WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | |
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Click on each respective image to watch the video.
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * | |
Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo | |
* MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | |
Remember this?? I cannot believe it's been 20 years. My own photo above from February 21, 2005. | |
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Christo, The Gates (Project for Central Park, New York City) (detail), 2004 – 05. Graphite, charcoal, pastel, wax crayon, aerial photograph, technical drawing, and fabric sample on paper. 15 x 96 inches and 42 x 96 inches. Photo: André Grossmann. © 2004 – 05 Christo and Jeanne-Claude Foundation.
Christo and Jeanne-Claude:
The Gates and Unrealized Projects for New York City
FEB 12 – MAR 23
A free, ticketed exhibition celebrating the acclaimed artists and their commitment to public art.
Presented by the Christo and Jeanne-Claude Foundation and The Shed, Supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies
Christo and Jeanne-Claude: The Gates and Unrealized Projects for New York City, opening February 12, 2025, marks the 20th anniversary of The Gates, the artists’ monumental work of temporary public art. Installed in Central Park in February 2005, the artwork consisted of 7,503 saffron-colored gates adorned with free-flowing fabric that spanned 23 miles of pathways and transformed the iconic park. This immersive exhibition at The Shed, which includes an augmented reality component, brings the spirit and vision of Christo and Jeanne-Claude to life. It offers visitors an unprecedented opportunity to explore the couple’s artistic journey, rekindling memories for those who witnessed The Gates and unveiling hidden stories for new audiences. Read more.
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Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy | |
The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Sunn’s is open in Chinatown. | Jutharat Pinyodoonyachet/Eater NY | |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in January: Crane Club, a new TAO-backed restaurant from Melissa Rodriguez and Jeff Katz; Sunn’s, a banchan wine bar; Zimmi’s, the little French restaurant diners will scramble to book; and Chez Fifi, an uptown restaurant from the Sushi Noz team.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
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Sunn’s salad, surrounded by some banchan of the day. Photo: Michael Carnevale, courtesy of Sunn’s. | |
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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Brown Harris Stevens
1934 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
917-701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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