Market activity has likely bottomed out, with contract-signed activity off over 80% from last year at this time; HOWEVER, there are signs of life, as the market is now beginning to breath. Although this activity is off by such an extraordinary margin, we are beginning to see a trend in a positive direction; meaning we are making a turn. Inventory levels are beginning to increase once again...slowly, but trending in the right direction. These are sellers who are setting the table for the anticipated open of the real estate market to apartment showings beginning on June 22nd.
Noah Rosenblatt of
UrbanDigs
has defined our marketplace in three stages and I could not agree more. The destruction phase, the normalization phase and the recovery phase. It seems we've fully experienced the destruction phase and just now are beginning to see that transition into the normalization phase. The puzzle pieces are beginning to be dumped on the table. The questions are: How many pieces will there be? How many players will be grabbing at those pieces? And what will it look like in a few weeks?
Since showings were suspended, there has been growing focus on virtual showings. These have served as only snacks for purchasers. For the most part these initiatives have been helpful, but have fallen short of providing the perspective needed to commit to a transaction. Note: when showings begin, activity will certainly increase, but each showing will be controlled (and with gloves and masks). Open houses, unless "by appointment only" are likely a thing of the past, as buildings and home owners will not want multitudes of people tracking through their buildings.
Mortgage brokers are seeing an increase in loan applications, a sign of buyer interest in the marketplace. Pent-up demand from buyers is anticipated to be substantial, as life simply demands movement. Leases have ended, jobs have been lost, downsizing, upgrading, more children, schools etc. Prior to the pandemic the market was, for the first time in 4-5 years, on the verge of making a turn back in the seller's favor. It was anticipated to be a very strong Spring and Summer, a moderate Fall (due to the notorious uncertainty of an election year) and then a return to a very strong Winter and Spring of 2021. That momentum though was completely broken and buyers have been provided some bonus time to capitalize, especially considering current low interest rates. One's ability to take advantage of these conditions is unique to the individual and their own personal circumstances and risk appetite.
Although we are seeing a reverse of fortune for sellers, one thing we have identified for sure is that they are not accepting super low offers. Any cases of such a thing happening are very isolated. Whereas there are discounts, they seem to be averaging 3-5% off the asking price. There are larger discounts stretching up to 10% and even 12%, typically only in the higher price ranges, but that level of discount is far fewer in number. The past years of decline have already been built-in to the majority of the pricing levels across all price ranges.
A few final thoughts: As I mentioned prior, the second half of this year could be one of the busiest markets we have seen in years. For various reasons, financing will be more challenging now; consequently, cash will often provide leverage. Every single person’s situation is unique; so there is no universal silver bullet solution. Likewise, every neighborhood will experience its own unique transition, so they must be studied independently of one another.
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Always Here For You
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If you are inclined to dive in, are you prepared? You should always know what you are in a position to buy or sell at all times. If you don't know, reacquaint yourself with the marketplace. What is your property worth? What can you afford to buy? Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home or investment property out there for them.
If you are indeed exploring whether buying or selling is the right time for you, do not hesitate to reach out to me, as I am here to help. Your best investment is often in the broker you choose. With Manhattan's palpable level of competitiveness, my clients have considered me their hidden-hand. My experience affords me the expertise to pull back the curtain and reveal the circumstances as they are and the possibilities that exist.
On
the rental side
, many landlords are finding it challenging to renew leases for an additional year or more, especially in situations where schools are a consideration. Very little guidance has been given regarding schools opening in the Fall and what that might look like if they do. That uncertainty has landlords and tenants both in limbo. How will this play out? The consensus, generally, is that landlords should try to keep good tenants with reasonable incentives. The coming months will likely produce many vacancies, which will put downward pressure on pricing.
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Can't wait for the day I can run around again...
That's what our great city is all about!
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Hope to see you around campus....as soon as it's safe!
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* MANHATTAN'S BIGGEST PRICE DROPS *
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The Top 50 Price Reductions in the following categories:
The categories below include currently listed properties that have had a price drops in the past 30 days. The properties are ranked based on the percentage price drop from the last asking price.
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Could this be what awaits our own market here in Manhattan?
Excerpt: "Property of a good standard is not automatically worth less today than it was in February"
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each.
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With
Patch
you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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THE BRENTMORE
88 Central Park West, #11S
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Secluded grandeur...views...location...your own private elevator...
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West 70s Gem & Perfect Pied-a-terre
102 West 75th Street, #42
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Large Upper West Side one bedroom, one bath home with views of tree-lined West 75th Street. This home offers a large windowed Eat-In Kitchen and high-ceilings. This is all in the exquisite Del Monte.
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Rare Flatiron Loft With Views of
The Empire State Bldg & Madison Square Park
21 East 22nd Street, Loft 8A
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Location, Location, Location...The living/dining room spans over 25' wall of spectacular windows and over 11' ceilings .
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Your Own Private Roof Terrace...
Your Own Private Oasis...
Overlooking Manhattan
155 West 78th Street, #3
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Four Bedroom Triplex Rental with Large Private Roof Terrace. This extraordinary home is situated on one of the Upper West Side's truly picturesque Museum blocks. Owner occupied townhouse.
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES *
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On Various Occasions Recently...
the 30 Year Fixed Jumbo Mortgage
Has Dropped Below 3%
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Example of Purchasing Power
This Year vs. 18 months ago
Interest Rates
:
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 3.125% vs. rates of 4.625%, just over a year ago.
$1M borrowed at 3.125% = $4,284/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $857/month or $10,284/year.
Alternatively,
we could look at it this way:
At 3.125%, $4,284/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,284/month only afforded you a $833,430 mortgage.
That is virtually
20% more purchasing power
than 18 months ago, just because of interest rates.
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales
:
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
Other Markets:
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Support New York City
Troop 3845
, as they raise money for local charities.
My personal favorites are the
Somoas
...crisp cookies with carmel, coconut and dark chocolaty stripes. I mean seriously? Delicious!
But, which is your favorite?
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* D I N I N G - O U T ? *
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7 Key Takeaways From New York’s New Outdoor Dining Rules
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New York State unexpectedly announced Wednesday that regions of the state in the second phase of reopening can begin outdoor dining as early as Thursday, June 4. Indoor sit-down service will still not be permitted until the third phase of reopening.
For more click here
.
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A Guide to Making More Delicious Food At Home
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In this one Rob will take you through the most useful techniques, tips and tricks from his professional training and his personal experience. If you’re doing more cooking at home these days, or even if you just want to learn some insider tips into bringing full tilt flavor to food, you might want to try this one. P.S. You do not need to have any ingredients on hand nor do any prep in advance.
Ask Rob about his privates
…by which he means that he offers these sessions and more customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
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FATHER'S DAY GIFT
: For the Dad's who now have to cook dinner...Here's your Guide:
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The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
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* G R A F F I T I - Cooking @ Home *
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...and just a bit of quarantine cabin fever.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites.
Learn more
.
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
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Brown Harris Stevens
130 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor,
New York, NY 10011
(917) 701 3907
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