Meltdown or Showdown?
My favorite go-to paper, The Financial Times, recently reported that the IMF's World Uncertainty Index is at a record high, "largely due to tensions including the US trade war with China and Britain's exit from the EU." We've become so numb to all the negative global and domestic sentiment and anxiety that we've self-prophesized driving ourselves full-tilt toward a cliff. However, the Coronavirus (Covid-19) has side-swiped our vehicle and careened us off a neighboring cliff instead…ironically, precipitating the same result. This unforeseen event abruptly triggered the expected equity market correction early. I believe we have taken a needed body-blow, forcing us to slow down and actually realize the extraordinary position we have been in economically, as a country and in Manhattan...well, until yesterday.

That said, opportunity knocks. Remember Warren Buffet's investing advice, " Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful .” One of my dearest clients, purchased in the Spring of 2009, seven months into the financial crisis on a month when the Dow had dipped to 6,500. In my 22 years, no one has fared better with their purchase. It reminds me of where we are today.

Political polarization makes us forget that our domestic economy has been strong. Virtually every economic indicator has been positive (unemployment is near record lows, the strong $US etc.) and we have interest rates at levels we never dreamed of 18 months ago. Back then, the Jumbo 30 year-fixed mortgage rate was 4.65%; today it is only 3.125%. That is a 1.5% drop; meaning that you can borrow 20% more right now. Example: 18 months ago, a $1M mortgage at 4.65% would have cost you $5,157/month. Today, at 3.125% that same $5,157 would allow you to borrow $1.2M. That’s $200K more; that’s real purchasing power. For perspective, when my client (above) bought in 2009, rates were at 5.5%; imagine the difference from then to now.
 
If you further consider the marketplace is down anywhere from 10-20% (since the 2015/2016 peak) depending upon what specific market sector you are comparing, your purchasing power is even greater yet. Note: in some cases the uber-luxury market is down 25-40%.
 
Savvy sellers have capitalized and struck deals with willing buyers, often times still generating multiple bid situations when priced right. For buyers, if you add the above factors to a notoriously sluggish election year, as far as deal-volume is concerned, you begin to formulate a form of arbitrage, where you can take advantage of current market dynamics, which have just become more extreme. Note: every individual has a unique set of circumstances and I am happy to discuss those privately. So please do not hesitate to reach out, as I am at your disposal.

So what does this all mean for you? If you're a seller it means, get to it. Get in and get out. The Manhattan marketplace is quite efficient and purely price driven. When priced right, sellers succeed. Time on the market erodes your value. For buyers, very simply, it is likely the best buying opportunity of our lifetime. I know, you've heard it from me before, but it's true. Again, I'm happy to discuss.
As I always ask:  
Are you prepared to dive in? You should always know what you are in a position to buy or sell at all times. If you don't know, reacquaint yourself with the marketplace. What is your property worth? What can you afford to buy? Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home or investment property out there for them. 
* FEATURED PROPERTIES *
One of a Kind
THE  BRENTMORE
88 Central Park West
Secluded grandeur...views...location...your own private elevator...
For more s ee full listing details here Asking $13.495M. 
Rare Flatiron Loft With Views of
The Empire State Bldg & Madison Square Park
21 East 22nd Street, Loft 8A
Location, Location, Location... Right in the heart of the Flatiron District, nestled between NoMad and Gramercy Park, is an oasis...

...the gorgeous and tranquil, sought-after, tree-lined block on
East 22nd Street between Broadway and Park Avenue South .
The living/dining room spans over 25' with a wall of
spectacular windows and over 11' ceilings .
Asking $1.745M.  See full listing details here .  
West 70s Gem & Perfect Pied-a-terre
102 West 75th Street, #42
Large Upper West Side one bedroom, one bath home with views of tree-lined West 75th Street. This home offers a large windowed Eat-In Kitchen and high-ceilings. This is all in the exquisite Del Monte.
Asking $539K.  See full listing details here .  
*   M A R K E T   N E W S  *
Manhattan luxury market records strong week of contracts despite coronavirus concerns
by Sylvia Varnham O'Regan Chart: Courtesy
Excerpt: The report’s author, Donna Olshan, said it was hard to know what spurred the signings but she believes it may come down to a combination of low interest rates and price cuts on individual units.

“The people who buy in this period of time are probably going to do very well,” she said. “The flipside is, I believe some sellers will withdraw their houses from the market because they won’t feel confident having strangers coming into the house, and they also won’t want to sell in a volatile market.” Read more .





How does the evolution of function shape real estate
...with Aaron Feldman
from Benchmark Real Estate Group
I encourage you to listen to Aaron’s extremely thoughtful analysis regarding our collective value system and how it informs the evolution of function in real estate. How do we adapt our aging infrastructure to suit our current function when considering our density and our diversity? How do we use a high level thought to rethink our policies, laws and rules to improve the experience of our great city? And more...

Aaron inspires us to think through these quandaries saying: “ New York City, has to be a place where people continue to come to dream. I think that New York, unlike any city in the world, has been the place where passion runs wild. There are so many people with creative minds. Once you come here with an idea, it evolves. It’s still the most unique playground for new ideas .” Click here to here the 30 min Podcast.
As introduced by Rory Penn, Head of Private Office at Knight Frank:

The Wealth Report is Knight Frank’s annual flagship research publication that offers our perspective on investment and prime property.

This year’s edition casts its eye over how the concept of wellbeing is becoming increasingly influential in all aspects of our lives, from the investments we make to the places we choose to live. The insight provided by the report’s many different contributors, including the influential investor Jim Mellon, is both fascinating and thought provoking.
      
Of course, the report also features its usual in-depth guides to the performance of the world’s luxury residential markets, and the commercial investment sectors that are increasingly being explored by private investors, as well as the results of Knight Frank’s Attitudes Survey, which this year is based on US3.3 trillion of private wealth.
*  MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES  *
Historical perspective of mortgage rates since 1972.
According to Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are at the the 4th lowest level since 1971.
Courtesy: Wells Fargo
Purchasing Power
This Year vs. 18 months ago
Interest Rates
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 3.125% vs. rates of 4.625%, just over a year ago.
$1M borrowed at 3.125% = $4,284/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $857/month or $10,284/year.

Alternatively, we could look at it this way: 
At 3.125%, $4,284/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,284/month only afforded you a $833,430 mortgage.  

That is 20% more purchasing power than 18 months ago, just because of interest rates.
GET PRE-APPROVED AND LOCK IN YOUR RATE FOR AS LONG AS YOU CAN
* MARKET REPORTS *
The Latest Market Reports - Sales
Manhattan's 4th Quarter (2019):   click here
Brooklyn's 4th Quarter (2019):   click here
Hamptons Annual Report (2019):   click here

Townhouse Report: 2nd Half 2019:  click here

February Inventory Report:   click here  
January Economics:  The Heym Report:  click here  

Sell Your Property:   click here
Buying in New York:   click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
(courtesy NY Times)  click here

Other Markets:
Miami 4th Quarter:   click here
Miami Beach:   click here
Palm Beach 4th Quarter:   click here
Support New York City Troop 3845 , as they raise money for local charities.

My personal favorites are the Somoas ...crisp cookies with carmel, coconut and dark chocolaty stripes. I mean seriously? Delicious!

But, which is your favorite?
*   D I S C O V E R   NYC   *
Revisiting Yomar Augusto
Brazilian multidisciplinary artist splitting his time
between California & New York City.
YO! After quite some time, I was finally able to catch-up with Yomar last week. Seeing him reminds me how evolutionary and inspiring his work continues to be. The work has become increasing textured and complex...yet skillfully delivered with a simplicity we yearn for, sometimes soothing, other times disruptive.

His work is defined within spatial limits, but within these borders his gestures, his movements — sometimes thoughtful, sometimes mimetic — are characterized by a flow, by a natural organic abstraction. His work mirrors his personality: it is faithful to his way of thinking, it can be conceived as an apparent intricate language that makes itself understood through the strong beauty of the forms, through a Brazilian playfulness and an honest transparency that reveals our — his and ours — randomness.

The Hottest Restaurants in Manhattan Right Now
he Hottest Restaurants in Manhattan Right Now.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? NYC dining obsessives want to know what's new, what's hot, and what is going to be the next big hit in the greatest dining city on earth. So here it is, a guide to the hottest restaurants in Manhattan this month.  See the list . Image of Quality Bistro.
by Alex Stanlioff/Eater
Learn with Rob ~ "5 Courses, 15 Ingredients"
Join comedian and chef Robert Rosenthal for an entertaining evening learning a simple way to replicate a five-course meal utilizing easy-to-find pantry staples and simple techniques. Menu may include creamy white bean bruschetta; crispy spice-rubbed chicken, duck fat potato fries, roasted root vegetable medley; and chocolate-covered strawberries.

Space around the cooking island is limited, so if you're interested, here's th e link to sign up for the class. So if you have an appetite for fun, join in.

7 to 9:30 PM @ the JCC on the UWS, 334 Amsterdam Ave.

Wednesday, March 18th from 7:00-9:30pm.
_________________________________________________
FUTURE EVENTS AT THE 92Y

Tired of the same old dinners? Bored with your everyday meals? Well it’s time for that to change … and it’s simple.
Wednesday, April 22nd @7pm

Some people travel for culture, some for adventure, others for great shopping or just chilling on the beach.
And then there are those who go for the food. Learn what it takes to really taste a country’s cuisine with an expert in culinary tourism who has eaten at over 3,000 restaurants on six continents. Wednesday, May 27th @12pm
"Short Order Dad "      by Robert Rosenthal
The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before. 
Order:   Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
*   G  R  A  F  F  I  T  I   *
New York City  *  The Hamptons  *  Palm Beach *  Miami
With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites.  Learn more .
About Roberto...
  • Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."

  • Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.

  • Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class

  • Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)

  • Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)

  • Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City  *  The Hamptons  *  Palm Beach *  Miami

rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554 
m: 917-701-3907
 

Brown Harris Stevens
130 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor,
 New York, NY 10011
(917) 701 3907