As I’ve mentioned for several months, the current relationship between interest rates and deal volume is acute…and with it follows sentiment. At every instance over the past 24 months when interest rates have momentarily eased, which have been not been often, deal volume has accelerated. Most recently we experienced this in August, a notoriously slow time of year, which this year showed a bump, primarily due to the slight rate drop in mortgages. This year, customary market themes shifted; the busy Spring was actually “meh”, while Summer was uncharacteristically busy, up 4% year-on-year. 

Publicly there are many questions regarding price levels. Are we up? Are we down? and Where’s it going? Well, we have experienced quite a bit of craziness since the highs of 2016/17. We had overbuilt and overpriced; then we got hit with innumerable negative policy initiatives (ranging from the limitation on the SALT deductions, to more aggressive mansion and transfer taxes and an overwhelmingly restrictive slate of rental laws), the pandemic AND massive inflation which led to a massive interest rate spike that started in the Spring of 2022. With all of that…we are only down, on average, probably 10% from those highs [see chart above]. I say “average”, as the market is very segmented and there are certain property types that are outperforming others and vice versa. That said, only 10%?...and during a time period over the last 24 months where we have been experiencing below than average deal volume [visible in the chart below]. What this tells me, is that we have literally established a floor on how low prices can go. Even with all these obstacles, our market has remained solid…not great, as we never had a crazy bump in prices after covid like other parts of the country; but not bad, as we have not seen prices plummet. This speaks loudly for the demand here in Manhattan. Both buyers and sellers are standing on the starting line just waiting to transact. But what are they really waiting for? It’s the rates. The moment we see a material drop (which has already begun – scroll to the interest rate charts below), the flood gates will open. 

At the moment, the uncertainty of so many things (notoriously the presidential election, but also the volatile stock market, geopolitical tension in Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan…you name it) will moderate the flood. However, once the new year passes and we lead into Spring, rates have dropped, people start getting bonuses and it has become evident that increasing numbers of people are (or have already) jumped in…then the marketplace will become extremely active. This will likely favor sellers over buyers, as long as they have an alternative place to go, because demand will be substantial. Once again, it will become musical chairs for apartments. So as the saying goes about early adopters, “the early bird gets the worm.” If anyone is buying they will be far better served getting ahead of the herd mentality (FOMO) which is sure to set in. The greatest barrier to entry into the Manhattan marketplace is not the price, it’s the competition.

If you’re a seller, you should realize that demand (buyers) can react faster to market conditions than you can. They can just jump in, whereas you need time to prepare your property for market; so start now. You want to be ultimately ready to pull the trigger when necessary. The macro-market conditions described above are all indicators of fading buyer leverage, which most don’t realize. As a seller, you should recognize this irony; because regardless, buyers are feeling better (sentiment-wise), as they are solely focused on rates, which have already started their decent. So the market is stacking up to offer each side of the table something different and fruitful; you must simply have the right perspective. There is likely to be A LOT of movement come late Winter and early Spring.

I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.

The Line - August Job Report Slightly Below Forecast (Greg Heym - Chief Economist @ BHS)

Last Week in Research

Manhattan Weekly Contract Signed Report

Inventory Report (August)

Our Beloved Clark Halstead Passes...So long comrade (NYT)

Election, looming rate cuts send homebuilder stocks soaring (TRD)

A new chapter for NYC landlord groups (TRD)

Airbnb pleads with NYC to ease regulations, one year in (TRD)

Hochul Drops Broad Hints on Congestion Pricing (Spirit)

July echoes record high office visitation rates (REBNY)

Build, Baby, Build: Adams Mobilizes City Land For Massive Housing Push (Patch)

Global prime house prices begin to test the limits of affordability (Knight Frank)

Perfect Pied-a-Terre

An Upper West Side Gem with Your Own Private Terrace

Among the most unique offerings on the entire Upper West Side, apartment 7C at the Savannah is a glorious duplex with soaring double-height ~18' floor-to-ceiling windows and your own private, fully planted ~350 sqft terrace. Additionally there is a separate Juliet balcony with a sideways view of Riverside Park. If you are seeking substantial outdoor space, bring your green thumb and your grill. Your terrace is wonderfully positioned precisely where you want it, beside your living room, making it perfect for entertaining.

Asks - $1,299,000. See Full Listing Here.

While inventory remains scarce, as always some gargantuan deals were struck, where money was no object. With luxury inventory (generally thought of as the top 10% of the market) at half what it was a decade ago deal volume is down, but prices have skyrocketed. The pandemic really changed much of the market identity from a “secondary home” market to a less discretionary, making it more of a “co-primary” residence environment. This shift has diluted the intensity of seasonal demand, which was always characterized as “summer.” The season per se is more all-year-round now, with restaurants and businesses no longer closing for winter. Although you’ll still here the complaints of locals (native Hamptonites), the economy has reaped the benefits. Sadly, along with those benefits comes the regularity of seeing $70 entrees and nearly $50 pastas…YIKES.

This is all a result of wealth expansion into other professional sectors, not just from Wall Street, but from private equity, tech execs and other entrepreneurs. This populated dance floor does not bode well for finding that ideal partner in the form of a property, so you must get connected to win. Opportunities will arise in many different shapes and sizes, you will just need to recognize them when they do.

The Latest Market Reports - Sales: 



Manhattan's Q2 (2024): click here

Manhattan Contract Signed Report: click here

Inventory Report (August): click here

Last Week in Research: click here 

10-Year Manhattan Townhouse Report: click here

New Rental Listings (July): click here

Rental Concessions Report (August): click here

Brooklyn's Q2 (2024): click here

Second-Half 2023 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here

Queens Q2 (2024): click here

Riverdale Q2 (2024): click here

Other Markets:

Hamptons Q2 (2024): click here

Connecticut Q2 (2024): click here

Hoboken/Jersey City Q2 (2024): click here

Essex County, NJ Q4 (2023): click here

Hudson Valley Q2 (2024): click here

Miami Beach Q2 (2024): click here

Palm Beach's Q2 (2024): click here

Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:

(courtesy NY Times) click here

Look Again: European Paintings

Rembrandt: Restoring a Masterpiece

Join curator Adam Eaker and conservator Dorothy Mahon as they discuss the restoration of Rembrandt’s Artistotle with a Bust of Homer (1653), now on view in the renovated and reinstalled European Paintings galleries at The Met, Look Again: European Paintings 1300-1800.  Click image to learn more.

A collection of dishes from Massara. | Alex Staniloff/Massara

Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:

This list will be updated monthly.

Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.

New to the list in September : Phoenix Palace, the Chinatown follow-up to Potluck Club; Cocina Consuelo, an uptown Mexican all-day cafe; Sea, a more casual offshoot of Jungsik; and, Pho Ga Vang, a Vietnamese import from Falls Church.

For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.

Umbrian wines are poised for continued recognition and appreciation

Thousands of years ago the Romans made viticulture one of their great, enduring contributions to world history. In their home country, Tuscany and Piedmont emerged as the most prominent and highly regarded wine regions. A revealing assignment to explore the wines of Umbria brought me a deeper understanding and appreciation for that region and its winemakers. Sampling on site and questioning Italian wine experts for their perspectives contributed significantly to what I learned.

Umbria sits just to the southeast of Tuscany, yet they share more than a common border. Both are known for their verdant, rolling hills, which are ideal for planting vines. They have a similar climate of cold, rainy winters followed by dry summers with abundant sunshine. And Sangiovese is the principal grape variety in both. So why has Umbria been overshadowed by its more glitzy neighbor?

For one, Tuscany had a long head start....  Read more.

The Perfect Father's Day Gift

Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before. 

Order:  Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!