Prices bottomed months ago;
now, you have one year to buy
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News flash to the old buyers who've been kicking the can around; a whole new crop of buyers are entering the marketplace.
To be very frank…you have one year to buy…before all hell breaks loose, as they say. In actuality you have a bit less time than that (perhaps 11 months), as we're already seeing the cogs of the marketplace begin to turn with a bit more momentum and purpose. Part of this momentum is a direct result of seasonality for sure; but on the ground, we’re witnessing a change in sentiment. Growing numbers of people are populating the dance floor with clear determination and a purpose to buy. Why is that?...several reasons.
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First and foremost, they are aware of my opening statement. In addition to the old buyers, who never bought because the doubling of rates derailed their searches and expectations, new buyers have entered the marketplace, many of them Millennials. Remember what I always say; the greatest barrier to succeeding in this marketplace is not the price (or even the interest rates); it's the competition. As more people come in, the momentum builds as FOMO sets in. If you think it's expensive now, it's going to get even more expensive as time passes...it's the simple supply and demand dynamic. You have to utilize the one lever that you have, which is the ability to refinance for a better rate later.
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Life happens; people have to move…for the myriad circumstances we all know.
- They know that, although interest rates have not (and may never) retreat back to the 3% levels which spoiled us, real estate in Manhattan is like musical chairs. There are fewer good properties out there than the people who are looking to secure them. At the moment there is indeed, still, a fair opportunity to seize a home; but come next February/March the dance floor will be packed and those opportunities will be ever more difficult to find. Meaning the environment is becoming increasingly more competitive.
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This activity will be driven by interest rates, which have already softened, but will finally descend to a place which will be perceived as “OK”. So the removal of this symbolic hurdle has already been enticing new buyers to participate and that number is going to grow exponentially.
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Not overly consequential, but always a hugely fabricated mental hurdle which amounts to nothing, is the Presidential election. Deal volume is bound to slow, as we approach November, as it always does. But the moment the election is over everything goes back to where we left off. It’s like the rubber necking that happens when you see an accident on the highway. The traffic is moving along normally but then slows down, cautiously and curiously, all the way to the point where you see what has happened and then you quickly get right back up to speed. You get back to the business at hand. So I guess the Presidential election is kind of like a car accident.
That’s the demand side; it will be palpable. The wild card will be the supply side, our inventory. The severity of the competitiveness we’ll witness will be dependent on the numbers of properties which will actually come on the market. Considering the housing crisis and the lack of new construction in the pipeline, I feel confident that it will not be enough to satisfy. Consequently, we will see substantial upward pressure on prices. With that in mind, for those who have been looking for a bottom, it likely passed us. The pricing bottom appears to have happened in late October/November of 2023. Since that time we have seen increased activity, which is just the beginning of the avalanche we will see in the coming year.
The chart below shows the most recent Q1 closing prices, which recorded the lowest price per square foot in three years. The following chart shows when those deals were actually struck, meaning when the contracts for those deals were indeed signed; the bulk occurred in November, when prices seemingly bottomed.
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Both charts courtesy: UrbanDigs
Final thoughts:
Although we’re currently experiencing very solid activity, if you’re a seller and you’re not in a "must sell" situation, you might even consider waiting a year when demand is pumping.
If you’re buyer and you’re not ready...well, you’re not ready. But if you really want to buy…get ready.
Will you be at “home” next year?…or will you be cursing yourself?
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I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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* F E A T U R E D P R O P E R T Y *
205 East 63rd Street #3D
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From the moment you walk into this peaceful corner residence at the crossroads of East 63rd Street and Third Avenue, with light and air from two separate exposures to the south and west, you feel the warmth of a "home". Exceptionally renovated, this three-bedroom residence was meticulously designed for ultimate flexibility of living. Asks - $1,195,000. See Full Listing Here.
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
Hamptons Single Family Homes
New Signed Contracts vs. New Listings
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- Land in Fairfield County -
“They’re not making any more of it.” - Will Rogers
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Click image and scroll to 1:00
Excerpt: “Do you mean to tell me, Katie Scarlett O’Hara, that Tara, that land, doesn’t mean anything to you? Why, land is the only thing in the world worth workin’ for, worth fightin’ for, worth dyin’ for, because it’s the only thing that lasts.”
That quote from Gone With the Wind inspired this month’s column.
What’s going on with land listings in the area? Are land prices going up? Is land worth dying for?
Active Listings: There are 16 land listings in New Canaan, 0 in Darien, 3 in Wilton, 8 in Greenwich, 5 in Norwalk, 6 in Ridgefield, 3 in Westport and 18 in Stamford. Note, 13 of those 16 land listings in New Canaan are offered by builder Arnold Karp. They range from 2.00 to 13.09 acres at an average price per acre of
Beachfront land for sale in Westport, 100’ of beach on 1 acre
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area,
around the country and even globally.
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Thursday's from 3-4pm
See you then.
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* What representation looks like * |
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Click on each respective image to see video. |
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Second-Half 2023 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here
Other Markets:
Hoboken/Jersey City 4th Quarter (2023): click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Even Better Than
The Real Thing
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Get ready for the cultural event of the season! Seventy-one innovators take the stage at the Whitney Biennial, opening March 20. Every two years, this headline-making event champions the creativity, talent, and vision of our time. In the 2024 edition, Even Better Than the Real Thing, contemporary artists and collectives take over the Museum and share their stories across film, performance, painting, sculpture, digital art, and more. Explore the Biennial's culture-defining legacy in the show's official teaser video.
Don’t miss your chance to witness history in the making—reserve your tickets today and be among the first to experience the magic of the Whitney Biennial!
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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A spread of dishes at Demo. | Alex Hodor-Lee/Demo |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in March: Frog Club, a restaurant from an owner of Horses in Los Angeles; Demo, a wine bar restaurant from Wildair alums, and Four Twenty Five, powerhouse Midtown dining from Jean-Georges Vongerichten.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Upcoming Courses include:
Note: These are live, virtual courses hosted by Roundtable, which include interactive opportunities and post-course recordings available for all course participants.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
1926 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
(917) 701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals.
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