Quo Vadis?...What now?
Greetings!,

Quo Vadis?...What now? With so many potential meanings, how does this phrase apply to you personally right now?...Just something to think about.

Regarding the Manhattan market, let’s just dive in. We are a bit behind last year’s contract volume, but we are trending up. The discounts are “typically” coming in between 5-10%. In rare instances we are seeing higher percentage discounts; but these are generally isolated to the luxury sector and accompany some unknown back-story or the property was grossly overpriced to begin with. Remember, these discounts are averages; handfuls of good and well-priced properties are still experiencing multiple bid situations, several (few) seemingly settling at or above the asking price.

Everything in Manhattan is a micro-market; it is segmented into many different categories and each has its unique behavior and must be analyzed accordingly. Pricing is the key; if sellers are too aspirational on price, not only will they not get offers, they may not even get inquiries. Well priced properties will sell. With little data available, the challenge is identifying the pricing level in each case. The market must be analyzed from innumerable angles, accumulating every possible metric and nuance we can glean from our industry colleagues. This also means, find yourself a good broker who understands how to extrapolate this information from the marketplace.
Courtesy UrbanDigs
The pricing myth will resolve itself in time. As more closings occur, valuations become more clear. The dislocation between buyers and sellers will narrow. Sellers feel the discounts should be closer to 2-3% rather than the 7-8%-ish mentioned. Every buyer wants the deal of the century; however, that is unlikely to happen. EVERY purchase right now is a deal; the market had already been sliding for nearly five years when Covid hit. If we pull back and look at the metrics, this is the most favorable time to purchase in my entire 22 year career. Interest rates are as low as I can remember, inventory is equal to the highest I can remember, negotiability is higher than I can remember, sentiment is as poor as I can remember (but optimism is filtering in, evidenced by the numbers of people jumping in…seeing the long-game for NYC ), sellers are more anxious (frankly nervous) than I can remember….the list goes on and on. Many buyers miss the plot; they become more focused on finding that outstanding deal, as opposed to focusing on acquiring that outstanding property. The too often neglected truth is that outstanding properties do not experience fire sales.
Courtesy UrbanDigs
For those seeking to make a move, whether buying or selling, they must seriously consider the current circumstances. If you're a seller and don’t have to sell right now and can wait, wait. However, if you are looking to upgrade, you will most certainly win. You may lose a small percentage on your sale, but you will earn an even higher discount on your larger purchase. This results in a substantial net gain. If you are a buyer, consider that our marketplace is virtually at rock bottom, five years of decline followed by the pandemic. Further consider that all of the robust activity we have recently witnessed has been purely driven by domestic purchasers. Imagine when the borders open up and foreign buyer demand comes in again. The simple supply and demand principle will prevail; more demand will put upward pressure on pricing. Question: will interest rates remain low? Maybe…but what if they don’t? We don’t have the answers to that. So since the getting is good, I would get-to-it before this mirage disappears. It's these times of dislocation where people can make moves not otherwise possible. Manhattan is a better value now than ever before. Some have gone away, finally providing others, who want to be here, the opportunity to fill the void and they will do so at a market-low. The next several months will be like "the rocky road to Dublin" as my Super likes to say, but in the end, Manhattan will come out ahead. Not just my prediction…look around, you can feel it. New Yorkers know what I am talking about. So get your piece of the apple and I’ll see you in the neighborhood !!

Speaking of apples reminds me of an interesting analogy. When going to an orchard and looking for apples, it looks ample at first…so many to choose from, just like our marketplace now, lots of inventory. However, after close inspection, you begin to realize that most of “the good ones” have been taken....or at the very least, they’re getting a lot of attention and won’t be around forever. 
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*   M A R K E T   N E W S  *
Click the button above to see the latest edition of our post-lockdown deals report, as of 9/29/20. The purpose of the report is to give you verified pricing data on deals negotiated after the NYS lockdown began on March 22nd. This is not meant to be a count of deals signed since the lockdown, as many of those haven’t closed yet.

To be included, a sale must meet all the following criteria:
1)     Listed through the RLS, by all firms.
2)     Have a contract signed after March 22, 2020
3)     Closed and recorded on ACRIS

The spreadsheet, accessible through the above link, is a running total we add to each week. Keep in mind some sales may drop off if we find out the contract signed date was incorrect. Be sure to click on the respective tabs for each borough at the bottom of the document.

Below is a comparison of the data in this report to the same period last year:
These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each.
With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
For Additional Neighborhood Blogs click here.
*  MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES  *
The 30 Year Fixed Jumbo Mortgage
Has Dropped Nearly 2% In The Last Two Years
Courtesy: Wells Fargo
Example of Purchasing Power
This Year vs. 24 months ago
Interest Rates
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 3.000% vs. rates of 4.625%, just two years ago.
$1M borrowed at 2.750% = $4,082/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $1,059/month or $12,708/year.
Alternatively, we could look at it this way: 
At 2.750%, $4,082/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,216/month only afforded you a $794,000 mortgage.  

That is 20% more purchasing power than 2 years ago, just because of interest rates.
* MARKET REPORTS *
The Latest Market Reports - Sales
Manhattan's 3rd Quarter (2020): click here
Brooklyn's 3rd Quarter (2020): click here
Hamptons' & North Fork 3rd Quarter (2020): click here

Townhouse Report: 2nd Half 2019: click here

October Inventory Report: click here 
Last Week in Research: click here 

Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
(courtesy NY Times) click here

Other Markets:
Miami's 3rd Quarter: click here
Palm Beach's 3rd Quarter: click here
*   D I S C O V E R   NYC   *
Whitney From Home - That's why we're bringing the Whitney to you with our new series of online events. From live screenings of video art to art history lessons and artmaking classes taught by our team of dedicated educators, there's something on offer to spark moments of creativity and learning for everyone.

We've also laid out some of the best ways to explore American art of the twentieth century to today across our website and social media channels. Start with a journey through our online collection, revisit some of your favorite Whitney exhibitions, and enjoy video and audio content that will bring you closer to the stories behind the art and artists that we at the Whitney hold so dear. Read more. (@whitneymuseum)
*  D I N I N G *
More than six months into the pandemic, many restaurants are juggling cold-weather outdoor dining efforts alongside a return to indoor dining at 25 percent capacity. As New York City works to contain the spread of COVID-19, many more restaurateurs are feeling emboldened to move forward with openings.

Dozens of new restaurants have opened in recent months, a remarkable change from earlier this year when many restaurants that had initially planned to open had pushed back launches indefinitely. As New York City settles into this new reality, Eater is highlighting new restaurants in Manhattan — and a few old favorites — offering a mix of outdoor seating, indoor dining, delivery, and takeout, that have opened in the last few months.

Added in November: Milu (a counter-service Chinese restaurant from an Eleven Madison Park alum), Frenchette Bakery (a new bread and pastry hotspot from the lauded Frenchette team), Veeray da Dhaba (a takeout-friendly spot highlighting a variety of Punjab dishes) and Rosella (a new sustainable sushi restaurant).

Live online - Learn the 10 most valuable lessons from culinary school.

Rob Rosenthal went to professional cooking school so you don’t have to. This class will cover key techniques, developing flavor-filled foods, the ideal tools and tricks of the trade to inspire confidence and create deliciousness.

PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
"Short Order Dad "      by Robert Rosenthal
The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before. 
Order:  Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
*   G  R  A  F  F  I  T  I  - Cooking @ Home *
New York City  *  The Hamptons  *  Palm Beach *  Miami
With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
About Roberto...
  • Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."

  • Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.

  • Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class

  • Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)

  • Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)

  • Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City  *  The Hamptons  *  Palm Beach *  Miami

rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554 
m: 917-701-3907
 

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