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Quo vadis?
(Where do we go from here?)
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Where do we go from here? From the perspective of buying residential real estate in Manhattan, this is when post-election sentiment customarily realizes that it was all much ado about nothing. It was always a time that followed notorious pre-election uncertainty where deal volume would materially decline; however, this time was different. From multiple perspectives, as you will see from all three of the UrbanDigs charts below, the pre-election market this time around revealed a different attitude. The market was active…and interestingly ahead of this particular election, which seemingly had higher stakes than any other. Each metric was up substantially from last year during this same time period. | |
Showing monthly Contract Activity for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan for all prices: “Monthly Contract Activity has risen 45.4% from the past month and has risen 25.8% from this time last year.” | |
Showing monthly Market Pulse for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan for all prices: “Market Pulse has risen 1.9 pts from the past month and has risen 4.8 pts from this time last year.” | |
Showing monthly Liquidity Pace Chart for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan for all prices: “Liquidity Pace Chart has risen 17.5% from the past month and has risen 20.9% from this time last year.” | |
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So why was it different? Why would people feel more confident than a year ago to buy and/or sell now, than last year? It has to be a combination of interest rates, time and sentiment. The “interest rates” part reflects the pure economics of the matter; it is more affordable to buy now than a year ago when rates were nearly an entire percentage point higher. With “time” we experience life circumstances which require us to move, whether it be a job change, a new child, a divorce…the list goes on, causing more people to enter the marketplace out of need, rather than choice; these are events which become unsustainable circumstances. And finally “sentiment” whereby people are just feeling better about their own circumstances or the economy or the world and/or they just get used to it and accept the new reality. These three forces together simply outweighed the uncertainty of the election. It is highly unlikely that we will see 2.5-3% interest rates again, at least for the next generation. We are in the high 6% range right now, whereas the national average for 30 year mortgages over the past 50 years is actually in the high 7’s. It’s about perspective. The past decade of uncharacteristically low rates was actually an anomaly and gave us a sugar high from which we crashed. That withdrawal is slowly wearing off.
The increased activity we’ve recently experienced, even at a time of moderate to low inventory, has actually created a marketplace which, as I spoke about last month, is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers. There is substantial demand out there for sellers to get a deal done, as long as they price right; the days of aspirational pricing have gone away with the low interest rates. Price right; get in and get out. Buyers have the opportunity to negotiate without too many people to compete with.
So back to Quo vadis…where do we go from here? Well, no one can know for sure, but the pace and trajectory of this marketplace is leaning us in a direction of substantially increased activity and more sellers will feel comfortable selling. The improving economics of a purchase, due to the likelihood of continued easing rates, will bring many buyers into the fold. What will likely materialize is a very busy market where the supply and demand forces will yield palpable competition and hence…rising prices. We will watch this together. Stay tuned.
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I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust. |
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* MANHATTAN MARKET NEWS * | | |
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From our Q3 Report: The Hamptons real estate market in the third quarter of 2024 continued to be one of high demand amid a relatively constrained inventory. The result was another quarter of year-to-year increases in the number of sales and total dollar volume. The total number of sales transactions in the Hamptons rose by 22.1%, with 409 sales in 3Q24 compared to 335 in 3Q23. Every price range experienced increases in the number of sales in 3Q24, but the transactions over $5M soared over 77% compared to the same period last year. The increase in the number of sales transactions in 3Q24 led to a 20% rise in the total dollar volume. The $1.1 Billion in sales achieved in 3Q24 represents the third highest 3Q dollar volume recorded. Despite the rise in activity prices haven’t changed much over the past year, with the average sold price just 1.7% lower than 2023’s third quarter. The average sold price in the Hamptons during 3Q24 was $2,699,350. The median sold price, measuring the middle of the market, decreased by 4.1% to $1,600,000.
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* WHAT REPRESENTATION LOOKS LIKE * | |
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Click on each respective image to watch the video.
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * | |
Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo | |
* MOST RECENT MARKET REPORTS * | |
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My dear friend Yomar is the best !!
Yomar Augusto is a Brazilian-American artist who splits his time between California and New York City. Over the last 15 years, he's built a reputation as a sought-after studio artist, calligrapher, typographer, and muralist, working independently across three continents.
“Yomar's work is defined within spatial limits, but within these borders his gestures, his movements — sometimes thoughtful, sometimes mimetic — are characterized by a flow, by a natural organic abstraction. His work mirrors his personality: it is faithful to his way of thinking, it can be conceived as an apparent intricate language that makes itself understood through the strong beauty of the forms, through a Brazilian playfulness and an honest transparency that reveals our — his and ours — randomness.” - Eduardo Varella
See more here.
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Let's Compare Lists: Eater vs. Resy | |
The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Heroes is now open in Soho. | Gary He/Heroes | |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
This list will be updated monthly.
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in November: Bridges, from Estela alums, located in Chinatown; Heroes, Ariel Arce’s latest restaurant in Soho; Borgo, Andrew Tarlow’s first Manhattan option; and the Corner Store, from the Catch team, that’s drawing a celebrity crowd.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Hit List: Where In New York You’ll Want to Eat Right Now
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Photo by Alex Lau, courtesy of Kisa. | |
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Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Order: Short Order Dad ...A Great Gift for Dad!
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage
its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and
internationally by inviting partners to high-light key properties in their
respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature
our important properties on their sites.
Learn more.
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Brown Harris Stevens
1934 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
917-701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera (a licensed real estate broker in New York State) for informational purposes only and and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No financial or legal advice provided. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. All Coming Soon listings in NYC are simultaneously syndicated to the REBNY RLS. Equal Housing Opportunity. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals. |
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