Schools are back, so does real estate follow? |
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Greetings!,
Schools are back, so does real estate follow? This is one question an article below tries to address.
Interesting question indeed. What are the facts? By May of this year many sellers had removed their properties from the marketplace and overall inventory had fallen to nearly 5,000. Since then, accelerated by the re-opening of in-person showings in late June, the number has inflated to 8,000, which is a bit over a 20% increase from last year at this time (what we might consider a more normal level). Consequently, this downward pressure on pricing is bringing some buyers back. Whereas sales volume had been off approximately 85% earlier in the pandemic period, contract activity has been spiking. According to data from UrbanDigs the past 7 days has seen 176 new contracts signed; last year that number for the same seven day period was 199. So when you consider that contracts signed were less than 40 in May, the market is making a turn. Buyers who have been keen to buy are getting in. The numbers are still moderate, but the bottom of slide is likely behind us.
Pricing, on the other hand, has a bit more discovery to be revealed. Many deals consummated during the pandemic, which have yet to be recorded, will provide us with the true effect of the Covid crisis on our marketplace. Once those discounts become known, pricing will adjust in order to keep the marketplace transacting. However, as people get increasingly comfortable with this crisis and how to maneuver within it, more and more people will be coming back into the fold. This demand will eventually moderate the severity of the potential declines. This Fall could be an extraordinary buying opportunity, as pricing should be “low-ish” and demand moderate. These opportunities are further enhanced as long as the low interest rate climate persists. Interest rates are rock bottom and purchasing power is strong (see Purchasing Power analysis below). Interestingly for those looking to upgrade, the higher you go up the pricing scale the softer it becomes.
Conversely, I believe that Spring/Summer 2021 will be a frenzy. Assuming we have made progress on a vaccine and the systems to manage the virus have been drastically improved, most who have defected from the city will be itching to get back and the resulting competition will be palpable. Everyone will be scrambling to get situated prior to the 2021 Fall school semester. Without question, as always, those who plan and act early will get the best deals.
Buyers will determine the market’s next move. Chart below is courtesy of UrbanDigs.
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Always Here For You
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If you are inclined to dive in, are you prepared? You should always know what you are in a position to buy or sell at all times. If you don't know, reacquaint yourself with the marketplace. What is your property worth? What can you afford to buy? Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home or investment property out there for them.
If you are indeed exploring whether buying or selling is the right time for you, do not hesitate to reach out to me, as I am here to help. Your best investment is often in the broker you choose. With Manhattan's palpable level of competitiveness, my clients have considered me their hidden-hand. My experience affords me the expertise to pull back the curtain and reveal the circumstances as they are and the possibilities that exist.
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Can't wait for the day I can run around again...
That's what our great city is all about!
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Hope to see you around campus....as soon as it's safe! |
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Your Own Private Roof Terrace...
Your Own Private Oasis...
Overlooking Manhattan
155 West 78th Street, #3
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NO FEE...Luxury Four Bedroom Triplex Rental with Large Private Roof Terrace. This extraordinary home is situated on one of the Upper West Side's truly picturesque Museum blocks. Owner occupied townhouse.
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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On Various Occasions Recently...
the 30 Year Fixed Jumbo Mortgage
Has Dropped Below 3%
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Example of Purchasing Power
This Year vs. 18 months ago
Interest Rates:
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 3.125% vs. rates of 4.625%, just over a year ago.
$1M borrowed at 3.125% = $4,284/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $857/month or $10,284/year.
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 3.125%, $4,284/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,284/month only afforded you a $833,430 mortgage.
That is virtually 20% more purchasing power than 20 months ago, just because of interest rates.
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
Other Markets:
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No one becomes “not racist,” despite a tendency by Americans to identify themselves that way. We can only strive to be “antiracist” on a daily basis, to continually rededicate ourselves to the lifelong task of overcoming our country’s racist heritage.
We learn early the racist notion that white people have more because they are more; that people of color have less because they are less. I had internalized this worldview by my high school graduation, seeing myself and my race as less than other people and blaming other blacks for racial inequities.
To build a nation of equal opportunity for everyone, we need to dismantle this spurious legacy of our common upbringing. One of the best ways to do this is by reading books. Not books that reinforce old ideas about who we think we are, what we think America is, what we think racism is. Instead, we need to read books that are difficult or unorthodox, that don’t go down easily. Books that force us to confront our self-serving beliefs and make us aware that “I’m not racist” is a slogan of denial.
The reading list below is composed of just such books — a combination of classics, relatively obscure works and a few of recent vintage. Think of it as a stepladder to antiracism, each step addressing a different stage of the journey toward destroying racism’s insidious hold on all of us. (Link)
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* D I N I N G - O U T ? * |
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The Best Dishes Eater Editors Ate This Week
Takeout and delivery gems in NYC, plus recipes and grocery items that are must-tries by Eater Staff
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Many NYC restaurants are now back for takeout and delivery — and thousands are offering outdoor dining as well. With the ongoing crisis, many are experimenting with new recipes at home too. In this feature, Eater NY staffers share their favorites each week — whether it’s a grocery item, a recipe, or a dish from a restaurant that’s reopened. |
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Private Online Cooking Classes by Rob |
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Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
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* G R A F F I T I - Cooking @ Home * |
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami |
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
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Brown Harris Stevens
130 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor,
New York, NY 10011
(917) 701 3907
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