Have you acknowledged “the moment”? |
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Was there actually a regional banking issue? I say this in jest, as I am honestly afraid to write this for the omen it might invite. But in all seriousness, people paused for a day or two and then simply moved on. That said, we are not out of the woods yet; we’ve all heard about a few anecdotal hiccups, but they have been limited. Pricing is the name of the game; we are seeing bidding wars for some properties and not even showings on others…so it’s a bit chaotic for some to grasp. It’s like watching a time-lapse clip of a busy NYC intersection, seemingly chaotic and random, but in actuality, like the intersection, the market is quite orderly….with a few aberrations of course, heck it’s Manhattan!
The year started off far more tentatively than pre-covid years; it was a lingering hangover from the second half of last year’s languid performance. After those notions have since thawed. The “need” for housing and sensible seller price reductions have accelerated deal volume over the past 60 days. The market is in a very good place…it is not frenzied; you actually have some time to think (a luxury in Manhattan real estate). Interestingly, the super-luxury segment of the market seems to be the slowest; but it too has been gaining momentum for many weeks now.
Successful sellers have been those who acknowledged “the moment” of weaker demand and higher interest rates and priced (or reduced price) to meet those lower bid levels. The sellers who haven't made those adjustments remain on the market with eroding values. The “new” inventory that is just hitting the market, if priced appropriately, will get a lot of attention. As sentiment improves and (again) “need” becomes increasingly intense, those buyers starved for that new inventory will flock, while the old stuff sits. That said, opportunity exists in those old listings. Buyers should probe for those listings which have been on the market for a long time, in search of a deal or an opportunity to substantially negotiate. Likewise, for those properties requiring work. With supply chain and renovation delays easing substantially, those apartments possess a potential to capture tremendous value.
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"Showing Market Pulse for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan for all prices. Courtesy UrbanDigs
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Deal volume has been methodically increasing. The most robust activity has occurred in the lower price ranges and wanes as you go up the price scale. This is ironic, as the lower price ranges are typically the most interest-rate-sensitive segments of the market, whereas higher price points, with a far higher percentage of all-cash deals, are “typically” far less affected. What it tells us is that the core base of New Yorker’s are in buying mode, regardless of rates. They realize that identifying the right property now is most important; they can refinance later when rates ease. It also follows right along with what I always say, “The greatest barrier to purchasing in Manhattan is not the price, but the competition” (is it ridiculous that I am quoting myself?...embarrassing really). It’s like a dance floor, there are currently people dancing and many people simultaneously circling, looking for their partner; it’s active…there are choices of people to dance with. This is a big contrast from the second half of last year when no one was even at the dance.
Today’s active buyers have also acknowledged “the moment” of higher (but not unreasonable) interest rates and feel a fairness in the marketplace; they are trying to seize it. Mortgage brokers are also reporting increased loan application activity; this is evidence of both deal volume and those in preparation to buy.
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U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note |
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What the future holds is impossible to predict, but we are optimistic. The credit markets, which are generally pretty savvy, are betting on better times. With inflation coming down they feel rates have stopped rising, except for possibly one more ¼ point increase at the next Fed meeting. Even better, the terminal rate has many seeing an actual drop in rates by year’s end. As you can see above, we have already seen the 10 year treasury note drop quite a bit in the past couple weeks, which is also helping to fortify many of these regional banks with a bit more liquidity. This along with strong employment numbers has an increasing number of economist thinking we could possibly avoid a meaningful recession.
As you know, I always say two things: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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Welcome to CitySnap, Manhattan’s the most comprehensive search engine for residential real estate. Where the information is actually REAL and provided by the original sources. Join me!
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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Some air to breath out east.
We’re likely falling back into “cycle” out east, as demand eased in the first quarter, the first of this we have seen since the pre-pandemic era. Whereas lesser supply would typically indicate higher demand for those fewer properties and an upward pressure on prices, the concerns about interest rates, inflation and to some degree the recent regional banking environment have buyers actually sitting back for a bit to see how things shake out. With so few houses to sell, a bit of buyer exhaustion has set in, as they wait for new inventory. That said, good and/or rare properties tend to fly off the market at competitive prices, as one might expect. The market generally remains in an upward trajectory, albeit moderate.
Those considering renovating may encounter the best values Although supply chain issues have drastically improved, you will be waiting.
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity for you and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area, around the country and even globally.
BIG ANNOUNCEMENT...we are moving!!!
On April 27 our new show debuts on...
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(above link is still under development) |
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...still on Thursday's, but at a NEW time from 3-4pm
See you then.
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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"Purchasing Power"
What a difference a year makes.
Example below reflects the difference in purchasing power between:
3% vs. 6%
$1M borrowed at 3% = $4,216/month
$1M borrowed at 6% = $5,996/month
That is a difference of $1,780/month or $21,360/year
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 3%, $4,216/month will afford you a $1,000,000 mortgage.
At 6%, $4,216/month only affords you a $703,200 mortgage.
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Second-Half 2021 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here
Other Markets:
Hoboken/Jersey City 4th Quarter (2022): click here
Miami's Luxury Condo Report 4th Quarter: click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Ronald S. Lauder's
Museum for German & Austrian Art
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This is just a shout out to one of my favorite places in the city, unknown to most...and a real gem, The Neue Galerie.
From last years exhibition, click on the above image for:
"A Conversation with Ronald S. Lauder and Renée Price"
The Neue Galerie first opened in November 2001, has become a beloved place, earning praise from visitors, critics, and colleagues in equal measure. In this online program, Ronald S. Lauder, the Neue Galerie’s founding President, and Renée Price, the museum’s Director, discuss the beginnings of the institution and bring you behind the scenes of “Modern Worlds: Austrian and German Art, 1890–1940,” a special exhibition organized to mark the twentieth anniversary of the museum’s founding.
Currently exhibited: “Austrian Masterworks from The Ronald S. Lauder Collection” Click here for more. Now thru May 29, 2023
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For crying out loud...
...can anyone get me in?
NYC’s hottest restaurant.
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The pepperonci martini | Credit: Christian Harder |
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Brian Schnieder runs Bad Roman’s beverage program, and Gaube isn’t reluctant to call him a “genius.” “He’s so creative with the drinks he comes up with,” Gaube says, pointing to the martini pepperoncini. “It’s simple and so well executed; the brine is just unexpected. It’s a fun drink even though it’s a martini.”
Tequila granita is another photogenic cocktail racking up the likes. (“Everybody’s talking about it now,” Guabe says.) The habanero shaved ice amps up the margarita and is sweetened with a Calabrian chile honey. Italian carpool shots are another fan favorite, served in toy cars for a little extra fun. Named after Italian classic cars, such as the Ferrari (made with Fernet and Campari), the $8 drinks aim to keep the celebration going. Keep reading all about it here. P.S. I finally did get a reservation.
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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A chevapi plate from Balkan StrEAT l Max Flatow/Balkan StrEAT |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list: Stretch Pizza, a new pizzeria by celebrity chef Wylie Dufresne; Olle, a Korean restaurant with standout banchan; Raf’s, a restaurant and bakery from the team behind Musket Room.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Culinary Tourism with Rob Rosenthal 2023
Monday, May 1st, 6:30 - 8:00 PM EST
Some people travel for culture, some for adventure, others for great shopping, others for chilling on the beach. But some of us are seeking something more delicious: these people travel for the food. Learn about traveling for the love of food with acclaimed culinary journalist Rob Rosenthal!. Click here.
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Discover something delicious at the 92Y
Cook along with chef Rob Rosenthal as he shows you how to create delicious, wholesome, vegetable-forward dishes from Greece, Israel, Italy, and beyond.
Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Upcoming Courses include:
Note: These are live, virtual courses hosted by Roundtable, which include interactive opportunities and post-course recordings available for all course participants.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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Prepare Your Property for Market with BHS's new program |
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Curate provides you with the ability to prepare your home for sale
with no up-front costs,100% payable at closing.
Services include Cleaning/Decluttering, Renovation, Staging & Design
and more. Contact me and/or click here to learn more.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
1926 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
(917) 701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals.
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