The Market Is Fair..."for now." |
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It’s a seesaw and both parties, buyer and seller, are airborne…suspended in equilibrium, for now…but as always, the momentum will eventually lean in favor of the heavy weight, the seller. Buyers have always had to be welterweights, faster, lighter on their feet….nimble. As mentioned though, right now, the market is wonderfully balanced for both parties to thrive. With approximately 6,600 listings on the market (down from last year’s highs of 9,500+, but above lean years like 2013, 2014 & 2015 when inventory occasionally dropped below 4,000), buyers still have a moderate level of choice. It’s no longer like trying to acquire concert tickets. You can visit a property, see it again and even negotiate; this is a healthy place to be for buyers. That said, if you wait too long, this window will pass.
While the market pace has moderated from the frenzy of Spring/Summer, some buyers have been spooked by the headlines focusing on the overwhelming deal volume. The stories not being told, which they should concentrate on, are: 1) the fact that, while the “Covid discount” has virtually disappeared, there has been no significant price appreciation that has occurred…yet; and 2) as a buyer, the timing of “now” could be your greatest asset.
Right “now” the marketplace is seemingly in equilibrium; generally speaking: Pricing levels have recuperated to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, but no further. Real sellers are not overpricing and are negotiable. You actually have properties to choose from. Interest rates are still low. And we are seeing a return to seasonality, in that this is likely the calm before the storm.
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Buyers always tend to fair well at the end of the year. As many buyers check-out for the holidays, there is a reduction in demand/competition. Likewise, some industries, like Wall Street, tend to put the brakes on their searches while they wait to see what bonus season will bring in January/February. Subsequently…leading into the Spring, a lot of money floods the market, competition for good property becomes palpable, deal volume spikes and buyer frustration follows. This particular year is anticipated to be strong for bonuses and again interest rates remain low for now.
Beyond the immediate time frame, the coming years bode strongly for moderate, but methodical price appreciation. Although the city feels like it is pumping, we are only about 70% back, by my estimation. We still have commercial and retail that are not quite up-to-speed. We have foreigners who are just now beginning to trickle in. Also the lack of new construction during covid could further tighten inventory in the coming year or so. As the pace of this recovery accelerates, so will the demand for property. Let’s not forget that the new Mayor coupled with a diversified economy, including a growing tech sector, has many seeing greener pastures.
Sellers are in a great position as demand is stronger than past years at this time. If priced right, they can get in and get out. Overpricing is the single biggest mistake they can make, as this is an extremely price sensitive market. Apartments are being absorbed at a healthy pace; so sellers who respect the process will succeed. We have seen over 300 contracts signed in each of the past two weeks. The other mistake sellers can make is not preparing your property for sale. If your home does not show well, you are cheating yourself and will be selling at a discount. There are too many glossy new apartments out there with all sorts of bells and whistles and you must compete for the attention given them. Apartments that need work are truly suffering the most, because renovating has become an increasingly onerous, time consuming and expensive proposition.
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Rental Statistics
as assembled by our Managing Director of Leasing:
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7.2% less rental listings were listed in Manhattan in September of 2021 vs. September of 2020, and 79% more were listed in September 2021 than in September 2019.
Studios:
September 2021: 974 studios were listed, at average price of $2,812 (6.3% increase since August 2021)
September 2020: 1723 studios were listed, at average price of $2,279 (2.6% drop from August 2020)
September 2019: 916 studios were listed, at average price of $2,771 (1% drop from August 2020)
1BRs:
September 2021: 2594 1BRs were listed, at average price of $3,465 (0.6% increase since August 2021)
September 2020: 3233 1BRs were listed, at average price of $3,107 (4.2% drop from August 2020)
September 2019: 1732 1BRs were listed, at average price of $3,652 (0.9% drop from August 2019)
2BRs:
September 2021: 1419 2BRs were listed, at average price of $4,690 (5% increase since August 2021)
September 2020: 1769 2BRs were listed, at average price of $4,368 (1.5% drop from August 2020)
September 2019: 944 2BRs were listed, at average price of $5,142 (2.5% increase from August 2019)
3BRs:
September 2021: 478 3BRs were listed, at average price of $5,740 (10% increase from August 2021)
September 2020: 561 3BRs were listed, at average price of $5,670 (4.2% increase from August 2020)
September 2019: 305 3BRs were listed, at average price of $6,688 (1.9% increase from August 2019)
Studios:
The average asking price was 23.4% above the average asking price in September 2020 and 1.5% above the average asking price in September 2019.
1BRs:
The average asking price was 11.5% above the average asking price in September 2020 and 5.1% below the average asking price in September 2019.
2BRs:
The average asking price was 7.4% above the average asking price in September 2020 and 8.8% below the average asking price in September 2019.
3BRs:
The average asking price was 1.2% above the average asking price in September 2020 and 14.2% below the average asking price in September 2019.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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From our Q3 Market Report by Executive Managing Director Philip V. O'Connell:
"The average sales price in the Hamptons was $3,082,134 during 3Q21, an increase of 41.4% from 3Q20, and an all-time record high. The median price rose 34% to $1,695,000, the highest Third Quarter median price to date. The conclusion?
Despite a marked decline in sales compared to the same period last year, demand for Hamptons real estate remains strong. Looking ahead, uncertainties in the U.S. and global economies - from supply chain difficulties, labor pool shortages and
budget battles in Washington - are factors we will want to watch closely. Time will tell how the market will develop in the Fourth Quarter, but as the following data shows, real estate in the Hamptons continues to demonstrate its long term strength and resilience."
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity for you and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area.
Thursday's from 4-5pm
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Courtesy: Wells Fargo as of 11/1/2021 @ 10:46am EST
Example of Purchasing Power
Interest Rates:
Example below reflects today's 30 year fixed rate of 2.750% vs. 4.625%, just couple years ago (Fall of 2018).
$1M borrowed at 2.750% = $4,082/month
$1M borrowed at 4.625% = $5,141/month
That is a difference of $1,059/month or $12,708/year.
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 2.750%, $4,082/month will afford you a $1M mortgage.
At 4.625%, $4,082/month only afforded you a $794,000 mortgage.
That is 20% more purchasing power than
3 years ago, just because of interest rates.
Historical Perspective
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Hamptons' & North Fork 3rd Quarter (2021): click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
Other Markets:
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JASPER JOHNS AT THE WHITNEY |
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FREE ART HISTORY COURSE: MAKING SENSE OF JASPER JOHNS |
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Tuesdays in November @ 3 pm
This free online course gives a comprehensive look at Johns’s career while placing his work in conversation with contemporary artists who are building on his ongoing legacy. Click here for Zoom Registration Link.
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The radical, inventive art of Jasper Johns (b.1930) continues to influence today’s artists like few others. In an unprecedented collaboration, the Whitney and the Philadelphia Museum of Art will stage a simultaneous retrospective—the largest of Johns’s seven-decade career—that offers a fresh take on the living legend. From his iconic flags to lesser-known and recent works, the exhibition will feature paintings, sculptures, drawings, and prints—nearly 500 artworks across the two museums, many of which are from Johns’s personal collection and will be shown publicly for the first time.
Inspired by the artist’s long-standing fascination with mirroring and doubles, each half of the exhibition will act as a reflection of the other, inviting viewers to look closely to discover the themes, methods, and coded visual language that echo across the two venues. A visit to either museum will provide a vivid chronological survey; a visit to both will offer an innovative and immersive exploration of the many phases, masterworks, and mysteries of Johns’s still-evolving career.
This exhibition is organized by the Whitney Museum of American Art and the Philadelphia Museum of Art. Read more.
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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A spread of dishes from Ci Siamo | Alex Staniloff/Eater NY |
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in October: Semma (a South Indian restaurant from the hitmakers behind Dhamaka and Adda), Ci Siamo (chef Hillary Sterling and Union Square Hospitality Group’s fiery Italian restaurant), Comodo (a Latin American debut from Brooklyn’s Colonia Verde team) and Sweetbriar (chef Bryce Shuman’s wood-fired fine dining spot inside the Park South Hotel).
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The Food Humorist©, is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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Prepare Your Property for Market with BHS's new program |
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Curate provides you with the ability to prepare your home for sale
with no up-front costs,100% payable at closing.
Services include Cleaning/Decluttering, Renovation, Staging & Design
and more. Contact me and/or click here to learn more.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
130 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor,
New York, NY 10011
(917) 701 3907
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