Ask yourself if you're on the verge of
missing another buying opportunity?
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Despite the negative sentiment, 2022 saw more deal volume than seven of the last ten years. The "high" we experienced from record setting 2021, along with uncommonly high inflation and the doubling of interest rates, brought on “withdrawal” and has crashed us back to down “normal”. The market is percolating though...it's quite busy, but only a few know about it...and they like it that way.
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Pending Sales - CLICK CHART TO EXPAND (interactive)
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"Showing Pending Sales for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan priced <600k & 600k-1m & 1m-2m & 2m-5m & 5m-10m & >10m." Courtesy UrbanDigs
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It’s difficult to predict with any certainty what 2023 will have in store, as any range of factors from socio-economic, political, geo-political etc. can influence the trajectory. That said, right now, limited supply and a strong rental market will result in sustained, and even growing, demand on the sale side. Regardless, extraordinary opportunities will present themselves to those with a sound long-term strategy. Don’t try to time the market; it's a losers game. You will be better served focusing on your own unique circumstances and needs over the long haul. Time in the market typically equals success, but you've got to jump in. Those who wait create opportunities for others.
"Success = time in the market, not timing the market."
For the pessimists, yes, interest rates are higher, but they are not high enough to crush the demand that is already emerging. Those hoping to see 2-3% interest rates, will be waiting a LONG time. Interest rates peaked in mid-November at around 6.5-7% (double what they had been at the beginning of 2022); however, they have begun to moderate to 5.5-6%. This drop and people learning about even lower mortgage options like “adjustable rate mortgages” (ARMs)* have resulted in a substantial spike in mortgage applications, a precursor to a wave of purchases. Buyers are readying themselves, further evidenced by the measurable increase in showings and offers being made, in some cases multiple offers on well-priced properties. Remember, nearly half of all purchasers Manhattan are all-cash; meaning those buyers are far less affected by rates and in contrast actually leverage that fact to their advantage.
* If you need a good mortgage professional, please advise, as I am happy to make recommendations based on your particular circumstances.
Where we are: In the most interest-rate-sensitive price categories (between $1-3M) there were significant drops in deal volume in the second half of 2022. Generally, when transaction volume drops like this (down 20-25% YoY), we would see an abundance of inventory. In this unique circumstance, however, we are seeing compressed inventory. With the selling season approaching, thankfully we're beginning to see this ease, albeit slowly.
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Supply - CLICK CHART TO EXPAND (interactive)
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"Showing Supply for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan priced <600k & 600k-1m & 1m-2m & 2m-5m & 5m-10m & >10m." Courtesy UrbanDigs
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This compression in inventory is primarily a result of sellers not wanting to sell their properties into an environment of low sentiment and languid demand. Many sellers have also been locked-into low interest rates which they've been hesitant to relinquish. Further to the compression was the slow-down of new construction over the pandemic. As a consequence though, we are also experiencing price stability, as negotiability hovers healthily around 4-5% across the board, for now. [see chart below]. This is the key; sellers have increasingly recognized the rendezvous point between bid and ask requires negotiability and their expectations increasingly reflect this. The result will be a fair market fueled by growing numbers of transactions and liquidity. This is a good thing.
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Median Listing Discount - CLICK CHART TO EXPAND (interactive)
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"Showing Median Listing Discount for any bedroom configuration in All Manhattan for all prices." Courtesy UrbanDigs
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The sentiment among brokers is measured optimism. Although economic growth will be shallow and unemployment will rise a bit, inflation’s peak is likely in our rear view mirror and moderating interest rates will continue to provide much needed certainty. The easing USD$ will also encourage foreigners to engage.
We are in a "moment in time" where many factors are converging to create this buyer's market, but those factors in sum are also signaling it will be short lived. Your circumstances will be unique and, as you know, I am always around to chat.
As you know, I always say two things: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
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* M A N H A T T A N - M A R K E T N E W S *
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Maybe gambling ain't so bad after all...
For the Tree Huggers…
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Welcome to CitySnap, Manhattan’s the most comprehensive search engine for residential real estate. Where the information is actually REAL and provided by the original sources. Join me!
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* H A M P T O N S - M A R K E T N E W S *
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There have always been moments when the Hamptons and Manhattan mirror one another; however, none more than now. These are both hyper “local” markets which less frequently reflect what is happening across the country.
The most severe metric affecting this marketplace is inventory, which is approximately 25-30% below what was once “normal” in a pre-pandemic era. There is not enough inventory to satisfy the demand. This has put tremendous upward pressure on pricing, with very little hopes for easing to a degree that would make buyers happy. The driving force of many Hamptons purchases over the past two years has been to create a co-primary residential. These are folks who have bought here without selling elsewhere. It has been viewed as a way to build generational wealth in a place with very limited inventory, thus very little downside.
That said, the barrier to entry is pricey. Increasingly though, people are recognizing, like Manhattan, that you have to pay your "cover charge" so-to-speak, to get into the party. I will repeat what I communicated above for Manhattan: The approach is to just get in, and spend time in the market as opposed to trying to time a market (drop), which, again, will not likely materialize to the degree that buyers would like. So get on the other side of the trade sooner rather than later. When buyers see a property that is too expensive, it probably is. The problem is that someone, who frustratingly proclaims that they, "have had it up to here,” will end their misery and just buy it. The following issue for those who didn’t buy it, is that the expensive sale represents the next “comparable sale” upon which every subsequent seller will try to build on.
The lack of inventory has many considering actually renovating something older instead, a proposition which became out of favor due to the hassle and supply chain issues. As logistics have eased (a bit), this option is looking more interesting, as it presents more choices. As opposed to seeking to buy a developers new construction finished product (extremely pricey) and/or building a new house on vacant land…renovating an older property may be the better option now. Many think, “heck, at least I have a place to go for now.”
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As a buyer, you need to know how to identify the right opportunity for you and when it makes sense to jump in...or not. Everyone's circumstances are unique. Like Manhattan, one needs good representation to successfully maneuver the nuances that exist in this unique marketplace. Let me know if you need help.
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A weekly podcast on real estate in the tri-state area.
We Are Back !!!
Thursday's from 4-5pm
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* MORTGAGE & INTEREST RATES * |
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Courtesy: Wells Fargo as of 1/31/2023 @ 10:59am EST |
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Chart Courtesy: Wells Fargo |
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"Purchasing Power"
What a difference 6 months has made.
Example below reflects the difference in purchasing power between:
3% vs. 6%
$1M borrowed at 3% = $4,216/month
$1M borrowed at 6% = $5,996/month
That is a difference of $1,780/month or $21,360/year
Alternatively, we could look at it this way:
At 3%, $4,216/month will afford you a $1,000,000 mortgage.
At 6%, $4,216/month only affords you a $703,200 mortgage.
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* Most Recent MARKET REPORTS * |
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The Latest Market Reports - Sales:
Second-Half 2021 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here
Other Markets:
Hoboken/Jersey City 4th Quarter (2022): click here
Miami's Luxury Condo Report 4th Quarter: click here
Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:
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These are great local resources, especially at times like these. Here are some of the best and most comprehensive neighborhood blogs that are helping to keep us informed. Click on each. |
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With Patch you can choose New York City; however, they also have more concentrated areas categorized as follows: Central Park, Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown-Hell's Kitchen, Harlem, Astoria-Long Island City, Chelsea, Gramercy-Murray Hill, West Village and East Village.
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Beyond the Light
Identity & Place
in 19th Century Danish Art
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Denmark in the nineteenth century experienced the disastrous fallout of the Napoleonic Wars, the devastating bombardment of Copenhagen, bankruptcy, and mounting antagonism with Germany. Yet, this sociopolitical and economic tumult also gave rise to a vibrant cultural and philosophical environment for nineteenth-century Danish artists. Beyond the Light places the drawings, oil sketches, and paintings created by these artists firmly in this period, one that witnessed the transformation of a once-powerful Denmark into a small, somewhat marginalized country at the edge of Europe. Danish artists forged a close-knit community during this time, and the artworks they created explore notions of place, identity and belonging, and what it means to travel and return home. Learn more. On view January 26th - April 16th.
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Diner's Choice of
The Restaurants Overall
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The votes are in: Click above to see the Top 10 Diners' Choice Winners in Manhattan
Looking for the best overall restaurants in Manhattan? You’re in the right place. Each month OpenTable analyzes more than 400,000 new diner reviews. We sort the results by category to help you discover new favorites. It's a great partnership: you reserve, eat, and review. We listen...and deliver the results for all to benefit. Enjoy!
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The Hottest Restaurants
Open Right Now
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Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:
Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.
New to the list in February: Foul Witch, a pasta restaurant from the Roberta’s team, Playita, a new Downtown counter for fish tacos; Ariari, a Korean restaurant specializing in raw seafood from Hand Hospitality, and Caleta, a small plates bar with ice cream from Wildair and Contra alums.
Health experts consider dining out to be a high-risk activity for the unvaccinated; it may pose a risk for the vaccinated, especially in areas with substantial COVID transmission.
For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.
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Discover something delicious at the 92Y
Cook along with chef Rob Rosenthal as he shows you how to create delicious, wholesome, vegetable-forward dishes from Greece, Israel, Italy, and beyond.
Cookbook Author, Culinary Journalist and Food Humorist©, Rob is a Manhattan born man-about- town who writes, produces and hosts programs about food. I highly recommend his new book for Dads like myself. There is a new kind of dad, and he's doing far more domestic duty than at any time in history, including cooking. Although it's written with a sense of humor, this book is a serious resource for dads and anyone else interested in upping their game to make great tasting foo d bat home, even if they have never used a chef's knife or a roasting pan before.
Upcoming Courses include:
Note: These are live, virtual courses hosted by Roundtable, which include interactive opportunities and post-course recordings available for all course participants.
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The Brilliance of Braising: The Best One-Pot Winter Dishes
Monday, February 6th, 6:30 - 8:00 PM EST
Braising is by far the best cooking method for your meats this winter. Learn to make what will surely be a favorite weeknight dinner for everyone in your household with these easy, inexpensive, and extremely adaptable recipes. Click here.
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Rob is also on iHeart Radio & SPOTIFY with his ALL YOU CAN EAT podcast about delicious food, cooking and luxury travel.
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PRIVATE ONLINE COOKING CLASSES:
Ask Rob about his privates…by which he means that he offers customized cooking lessons to individuals and to groups. You learn, you laugh, and you eat well.
Now that ALL of us need to pitch in when it comes to feeding the family, I suggest picking up some serious tips from Rob. As he says, he went to cooking school so you don't have to. These sessions are fun and literally provide prized skills for upping your game. Enjoy. See Rob's intro here.
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Prepare Your Property for Market with BHS's new program |
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Curate provides you with the ability to prepare your home for sale
with no up-front costs,100% payable at closing.
Services include Cleaning/Decluttering, Renovation, Staging & Design
and more. Contact me and/or click here to learn more.
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New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach
Connecticut * Miami
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more.
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With Partnering Worldwide, Brown Harris Stevens continues to leverage its very productive relationships with top brokerages nationally and internationally by inviting partners to high- light key properties in their respective markets on BrownHarrisStevens.com, and to feature our important properties on their sites. Learn more. |
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- Recognized by New York Magazine & Five Star Professional as one of the "most accomplished real estate professionals in New York City."
- Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents" for avg. sales price of $4.350M.
- Recognized member of the 2016 "TOWN Elite" class
- Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M to date. (StreetEasy)
- Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE)
- Trivia: Won the 2015 New York Times NCAA Basketball Pool.
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker
New York City * The Hamptons * Palm Beach * Miami
rcabrera@bhsusa.com
o: 212-906-0554
m: 917-701-3907
Clubhouse: @cabrera_roberto
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Brown Harris Stevens
1926 Broadway
New York, NY 10023
(917) 701 3907
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Disclaimer: The opinions and content in this newsletter are assembled solely by Roberto Cabrera for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Everyone has unique circumstances and should consult the their own respective professionals.
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